Why are the richest states so very Democratic? It is partly cause and partly effect.
First the cause. Intellectual capital has surpassed industrial capital as the source of wealth and income in this information economy. The communities around the various University of California campuses, for instance, have become host to a lot of exciting companies that have spun off from the staff, students and studies on those campuses. Democratic states invest more in the science and education that create jobs and wealth.
The only two states in the top ten by personal per capita income that Trump will win are Wyoming and Alaska. These are land-based economies, rich with oil, mines, livestock, grains, and forests. And of course, these economies are not the kind that create jobs; Wyoming's total population is 580,000 and Alaska's only slightly more at 730,000.
The economies in states like Connecticut and Massachusetts depend on a heavy public investment in schools and research, classic Democratic policy prescriptions. 42% of Massachusetts has a BA; only 26% of Wyoming does. By contrast, Wyoming and Alaska's economies depend on continued subsidies to oil and gas and lax regulation on greenhouse gases, classic Republican policy prescriptions.
Every year, more people can profit from technology advances in computing and genetics or new materials, the sorts of research and industries that spin off from universities. An oil well is zero-sum, though. If I own it, you don't. Meanwhile, knowledge builds on knowledge. You're going to hear more about AI and genetics in the next decade, the confluence of two research areas that promise products that might analyze patterns in your genetic code that make you more susceptible to Alzheimer's, for instance. This does not come at the expense of genetics or computing research but instead makes both more valuable. Oil wells and mines are zero sum but research and development literally stimulate more research and development; knowledge creates more knowledge.
Folks in places like Wyoming see the world as zero-sum because their economy actually is. The state can't even sustain a population the size of the cities in LA county that you've never heard of. Folks in places like Cambridge, Massachusetts tend to be more win-win because their economies actually lend themselves to that. If you give me an acre and I give you an acre, we leave the transaction unchanged. If you give me an idea and I give you an idea, we may both leave better off. You better understanding my AI technology and me better understanding your genetic analysis might enable us to collaborate to create a new industry with trillions in wealth and millions of jobs.
Zero-sum communities are also more susceptible to conspiracy theories that point them towards threats, that turn complex phenomenon into simple us vs. them narratives, a stark contrast to the pragmatic relationship knowledge workers in the information economy have to reality and theories about it.
So that's the cause. Wealth, income and jobs in the modern economy are increasingly the product of intellectual capital and the communities like New York and California that do the most to invest in it are the ones that will create the most jobs and highest incomes.
What is the effect? Well, richer people are less tolerant of low-quality of life. A poor person in West Virginia who lives near a mine doesn't have the resources to take on a business that endangers their child's health. Meanwhile, some mother in Santa Clara, CA - where per capita income is $106,000 a year - is not about to put up with risks to her child's health ... and she and her neighbors have the resources to fight a business that would put their children's health at risk. It is true that blue states have more regulations. Why? They are democracies and the residents of those states demand more regulations. There is little sense in making twice the national average income and then having to listen to the loud noises of a jack hammer at 4 AM or breathe noxious fumes from a factory.
Weirdly, though, the US rewards states unable to create jobs with more political power. The 21 least populous states have 42 senators and less population than California with its 2 senators. What does that mean in practical terms? If your policies can't create jobs to grow your population, your political policies have more influence. This may be the biggest design flaw in our current political system.
This design flaw is slowing the creation of jobs and wealth and improvements to quality of life. It is a weird thing to give more influence to less advanced communities, as if we were bringing in economic advisers from Afghanistan to decide what to do with Manhattan.
It is a weird election. The 30 states in between the top and bottom 10 are debating whether to follow the lead of the country's richest states - states that include Silicon Valley, Wall Street and the nation's top universities - or rural Mississippi, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Alabama. You might think that such a debate would have an obvious outcome. It does not. And that may be the weirdest thing about this very weird year.
First the cause. Intellectual capital has surpassed industrial capital as the source of wealth and income in this information economy. The communities around the various University of California campuses, for instance, have become host to a lot of exciting companies that have spun off from the staff, students and studies on those campuses. Democratic states invest more in the science and education that create jobs and wealth.
The only two states in the top ten by personal per capita income that Trump will win are Wyoming and Alaska. These are land-based economies, rich with oil, mines, livestock, grains, and forests. And of course, these economies are not the kind that create jobs; Wyoming's total population is 580,000 and Alaska's only slightly more at 730,000.
The economies in states like Connecticut and Massachusetts depend on a heavy public investment in schools and research, classic Democratic policy prescriptions. 42% of Massachusetts has a BA; only 26% of Wyoming does. By contrast, Wyoming and Alaska's economies depend on continued subsidies to oil and gas and lax regulation on greenhouse gases, classic Republican policy prescriptions.
Every year, more people can profit from technology advances in computing and genetics or new materials, the sorts of research and industries that spin off from universities. An oil well is zero-sum, though. If I own it, you don't. Meanwhile, knowledge builds on knowledge. You're going to hear more about AI and genetics in the next decade, the confluence of two research areas that promise products that might analyze patterns in your genetic code that make you more susceptible to Alzheimer's, for instance. This does not come at the expense of genetics or computing research but instead makes both more valuable. Oil wells and mines are zero sum but research and development literally stimulate more research and development; knowledge creates more knowledge.
Folks in places like Wyoming see the world as zero-sum because their economy actually is. The state can't even sustain a population the size of the cities in LA county that you've never heard of. Folks in places like Cambridge, Massachusetts tend to be more win-win because their economies actually lend themselves to that. If you give me an acre and I give you an acre, we leave the transaction unchanged. If you give me an idea and I give you an idea, we may both leave better off. You better understanding my AI technology and me better understanding your genetic analysis might enable us to collaborate to create a new industry with trillions in wealth and millions of jobs.
Zero-sum communities are also more susceptible to conspiracy theories that point them towards threats, that turn complex phenomenon into simple us vs. them narratives, a stark contrast to the pragmatic relationship knowledge workers in the information economy have to reality and theories about it.
So that's the cause. Wealth, income and jobs in the modern economy are increasingly the product of intellectual capital and the communities like New York and California that do the most to invest in it are the ones that will create the most jobs and highest incomes.
What is the effect? Well, richer people are less tolerant of low-quality of life. A poor person in West Virginia who lives near a mine doesn't have the resources to take on a business that endangers their child's health. Meanwhile, some mother in Santa Clara, CA - where per capita income is $106,000 a year - is not about to put up with risks to her child's health ... and she and her neighbors have the resources to fight a business that would put their children's health at risk. It is true that blue states have more regulations. Why? They are democracies and the residents of those states demand more regulations. There is little sense in making twice the national average income and then having to listen to the loud noises of a jack hammer at 4 AM or breathe noxious fumes from a factory.
Weirdly, though, the US rewards states unable to create jobs with more political power. The 21 least populous states have 42 senators and less population than California with its 2 senators. What does that mean in practical terms? If your policies can't create jobs to grow your population, your political policies have more influence. This may be the biggest design flaw in our current political system.
This design flaw is slowing the creation of jobs and wealth and improvements to quality of life. It is a weird thing to give more influence to less advanced communities, as if we were bringing in economic advisers from Afghanistan to decide what to do with Manhattan.
It is a weird election. The 30 states in between the top and bottom 10 are debating whether to follow the lead of the country's richest states - states that include Silicon Valley, Wall Street and the nation's top universities - or rural Mississippi, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Alabama. You might think that such a debate would have an obvious outcome. It does not. And that may be the weirdest thing about this very weird year.
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