COVID's Exponential Spread in the Spring of 2020 Will Become an Exponential Contraction in the Spring of 2021

Persian new year is the first day of Spring. For 2021, it will seem like the Persians have it right.

Currently, we're losing about 3,000 per day to COVID. That is forecast to rise by the end of January to somewhere between 2,500 to 4,500 per day. The vaccine rollout will radically change things within a few months.

By the last day of February, daily deaths will fall to about 1,500 to 2,000. The death rate will halve in February. By the last day of March, daily deaths should fall to about 500 to 800 per day, falling to nearly a third of what it was a month prior. And by May 1st daily deaths should be about 200 per day, again falling to about a third of its rate from a month before. (And with universal masks and even more rapid vaccine rollouts, we could be down to 100 deaths per day.)

COVID exponentially spread in 2020. It should exponentially contract in 2021. By Spring, it'll feel like a new year.

Numbers come from here:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend