The Data That Tells the Story About the Economy is Generally Much Better Than the Stories You Hear About the Economy

The data that tells the story about the economy is generally much better than the stories you hear about the economy. 

• GDP grew in the last half of 2022 at an annual rate of 3.1% - a rate nearly 50% higher than what it has averaged this century.
• Initial claims for unemployment came in at 186,000 last week, the lowest it has been since April of last year.
• Inflation in the last half of 2022 was 1.9 percent.
• Unemployment is at 3.5%, a level it has not dropped below since the late 1960s.
• The NASDAQ is up nearly 10% so far this year.
• New business formation in 2021 and 2022 was at record levels - by a considerable margin. (The average of new businesses formed in 2021 and 2022 was 49% more than what it averaged from 2016 to 2020.)

Those are facts.

Could we have a recession this year? That's distinctly possible. It is always possible. And you have heard - and will hear - all about that.

Could we have incredibly strong economic growth this year that continues for years? That, too, is distinctly possible. And you largely have not heard - and will not for some time hear - about that.

I don't think that enough is made of two real facts. One, traditional news outlets, like newspapers, continue to suffer from lowered revenues and layoffs. This means that the very source of our economic news tends to come from folks whose reality is very stressful and dire. Two, there is always strong incentive for commentators to put a negative spin on economic news because they know that happy, contented people are less likely to donate to campaigns or to vote.

If you want to know what is happening, go to data first and commentary later. Data rarely moves as dramatically as sentiment about the economy. And it often has much better news than ... well, the news.