Powell's Risk Has Shifted from Inflation to Unemployment

I don't pretend to have any special insights into financial markets and inflation so feel free to roll your eyes at this and scroll on to that funny meme about the Super Bowl but ...

Fed Chair Powell's insistence on seeing data to prove that inflation has come down or that job markets are faltering before he cuts rates seems to me to ignore the inevitable lag in the effects of higher rates. The data we see this month is a function of forces from months ago. If you wait for evidence, you'll wait too long.

The Fed has a dual mandate: keep inflation AND unemployment low. In my opinion, without a near-term rate hike, the risk of inflation above 2% is now much lower than the risk of unemployment rising above 4%. Put differently, I think it's time for Powell to start worrying more about continued strength in the job market and less about inflation again rising. It will be too late if he won't change until he has proof.