Job Creation Slows for 2025

We now have job and unemployment numbers through September. Unemployment is steadily ticking up, now the highest it has been in nearly 4 years. Average job creation over the last 5 months is 39,000. (To compare, in the same 5 months in 2024, the average was 136,000, nearly 100,000 more. Each month.)

Reasons?
1. Random changes. It's a wonder that the national economy is as steady as it is. Lots going on any given month.

2. Immigration. Fewer people coming into the country and more people going out. (These aren't just people at your local taco shop. Remember that Hyundai had people in an American factory who were training American workers who were arrested by ICE.)
3. Tariffs. Trump's policies have created uncertainty, which can cause businesses to hesitate before hiring. And tariffs themselves disrupt trade flows and existing business partnerships, triggering layoffs and hiring freezes.
4. Fed continuing with higher interest rates (in order to suppress inflation) which can depress hiring and investment.
5. AI. There are some reports that organizations' senior people are turning to AI rather than junior hires to complete certain kinds of tasks.

The good news is that the courts may yet scuttle Trump's tariffs and Powell and the Fed could be lowering interest rates within the next few months. The bad news? We have a president who likes a little chaos with his breakfast and there doesn't seem to be any serious policy discussions about what AI might mean for employment policies.