The emergent properties of 8 billion people collaborating, with millions of technologies potentially coming together in some kind of synthesis, are just so rich in potential.
We were single-celled organisms — and entirely new possibilities emerged when that reality evolved into multicellular life. We were little tribes — and entirely new possibilities emerged with the rise of nation-states. I still don't think we properly appreciate what new realities have yet to unfold from the emergence of the internet, which literally opens up the possibility of collaboration between anyone, anywhere, with anyone else.
Things like nationalism are pushbacks against this move toward global coordination — but that resistance is likely temporary.
The potential here defies any reasonable calculation. It's as if single-celled organisms were trying to predict what multicellular life would become.
R World (Ron Davison muses aloud)
01 April 2026
Random Walk Theory Paradox
Abendroth: If we take the random walk theory seriously, we can't take it seriously.
Me: What?
Abendroth:. The idea behind the the random walk theory is that everything we know about a stock is reflected in today's price ... so the only thing that can change that price is new information which we don't yet know. Stocks will randomly move - or walk - up or down, by a lot or by a little, based only on that new information.
Me: So you're saying that even conspiracy theories are as effective as financial analysis?
Abendroth: No. I'm saying that in finance, they are all conspiracy theories. Even the random walk theory.
After a long pause.
Me: So you're saying that the random walk theory could be true if it is false but must be false if it is true?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: Because the random walk theory suggests that any theories about the stock market - including the random walk theory - are nonsensical?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: That sort of makes sense.
Abendroth: But mostly doesn't.
Me: Did Lewis Carrol manage an investment fund?
Abendroth: Why do you think the Rabbit was so smartly dressed? He was the fund manager.
Me: What?
Abendroth:. The idea behind the the random walk theory is that everything we know about a stock is reflected in today's price ... so the only thing that can change that price is new information which we don't yet know. Stocks will randomly move - or walk - up or down, by a lot or by a little, based only on that new information.
Me: So you're saying that even conspiracy theories are as effective as financial analysis?
Abendroth: No. I'm saying that in finance, they are all conspiracy theories. Even the random walk theory.
After a long pause.
Me: So you're saying that the random walk theory could be true if it is false but must be false if it is true?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: Because the random walk theory suggests that any theories about the stock market - including the random walk theory - are nonsensical?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: That sort of makes sense.
Abendroth: But mostly doesn't.
Me: Did Lewis Carrol manage an investment fund?
Abendroth: Why do you think the Rabbit was so smartly dressed? He was the fund manager.