tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-329145922024-03-19T02:59:57.368-07:00R WorldR World
(Ron Davison muses aloud)Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.comBlogger2766125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-70893492246172677122024-03-18T16:57:00.000-07:002024-03-18T16:57:04.372-07:00California - land of the most successful capitalists in the history of the world<span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">At today's market close, the 50 most valuable companies around the world had a combined market cap of $27.9 trillion.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Portion of total from companies founded in<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">the US: 89% ($24.8 trillion)</span></li></ul></span><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">the West Coast: 64% ($17.7 trillion)</span></li><li><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">California: 44% ($12.3 trillion)</span></li><li><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">California's Bay Area: 43% ($11.9 trillion)</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>One of the weirder things about the Republican Party is how they've convinced their base that California is the land of socialists when it is so demonstrably the land of the most successful capitalists in the history of the world.</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-37475189896573965822024-03-15T12:11:00.000-07:002024-03-15T12:11:41.509-07:00The Stark and Persistent Labor Market Difference Between Democratic and Republican Presidencies<span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Those of you who find this kind of thing interesting might find this fascinating.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">What is good? A negative number. It shows that the unemployment rate dropped during that presidency.<br />What is bad? A positive number. It shows that the unemployment rate rose during that presidency.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Red bars indicate a Republican presidency.<br />Blue bars indicate a Democratic presidency.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There is a stark and persistent difference. <br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">These are not random. Post-FDR, Democratic presidencies have made labor markets a priority when making policy. Republicans continue to make capital markets their priority.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNk-YU1BjJ312nHiHcMSaOT7Bmt-oYbwet2R6GIhObC4FRma8g-uC1Shcyo3l4DAA3WTyfy6LoRB7L17pogCEACVHvqTUXAa34QIpfHMdVlUzrMMLDGHop1d3TcBVhVrYhT9VKh84vtfntXfE0M3IKBntfAd2JuN31R9Nk8xPS_Kbmw-oRcK8p" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="926" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNk-YU1BjJ312nHiHcMSaOT7Bmt-oYbwet2R6GIhObC4FRma8g-uC1Shcyo3l4DAA3WTyfy6LoRB7L17pogCEACVHvqTUXAa34QIpfHMdVlUzrMMLDGHop1d3TcBVhVrYhT9VKh84vtfntXfE0M3IKBntfAd2JuN31R9Nk8xPS_Kbmw-oRcK8p=w415-h236" width="415" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-27436484624612750142024-03-13T22:59:00.000-07:002024-03-13T22:59:39.332-07:004 Year Anniversary of COVID in the USA - and how deadly it was to be an American during the pandemic<span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">4 years ago today ...<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">President Trump declared a national emergency in response to coronavirus on March 13, 2020, to provide emergency funding of up to $50 billion to state and local governments. (The US ended up spending $1.6 trillion on the COVID response in 2020. So, slightly more than first estimated.)<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">10 months later, 25,000 Americans a week were dying. About 1.2 million Americans have died of COVID. <br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Trump never did take responsibility for responding to COVID, insisting that states </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">manage the response to this global pandemic.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The US death rate was awful in comparison to other countries. As of February 2022, Canada had fewer than 1,000 COVID-19 related deaths per million people, with a total of 919 deaths per million. Japan was noted for having the fewest deaths and infections among the G10 countries, with 156 deaths per million, despite having the oldest population and imposing the mildest restrictions. The United States had a significantly higher rate, with 2,750 deaths per million, which was the highest among the mentioned countries.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />So, to repeat, per million death rate from COVID<br />Japan - 156<br />Canada - 919<br />US - 2,750</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />Which is to say, Americans died from COVID at 3X the rate as Canadians and at 18X the rate as the Japanese. It was pretty deadly to be an American during the pandemic.</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-67967363823081868222024-03-06T11:14:00.000-08:002024-03-06T11:14:51.363-08:00Trump Refers to the US as a Third-World Country - Unclear if That's a Campaign Promise or ThreatTrump is the first president to use the words bleed, carnage, stolen, tombstones, and trapped in an inaugural address, a man who tried to overthrow democracy to stay in office after losing outside of the former confederacy by more than 10 million votes. This week he referred to the US as a third world country and made it clear that he doesn't want any Republicans in the party who had supported apostates like Romney or Liz Cheney, people who failed to treat him with all the reverence accorded to Jim Jones. (Trump famously does not drink alcohol. He prefers to serve Kool-Aid.)<div><br />Republicans get all excited by that sort of talk - still recovering as they are from the trauma of the "great doubling of egg prices in 2023."</div><div><br /></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-20769605800744720032024-03-04T17:31:00.000-08:002024-03-04T17:31:19.072-08:00One Reason a Nation Might Turn to a Tyrant<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">A simple - possibly flawed - explanation for Trump's appeal: when people are frustrated with institutions they turn to a tyrant to blow up the bureaucracy.<br />People who don't know any history might actually fall for that offer and think that trading sclerotic bureaucracies for an unchecked despot is a good trade. It never is.</span><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEieslISFROHkYjjneIfPSNhaefaZlvOCRcl6vQb-T3Np04Ja1EMWDlNmr8Mac2kpC2JxIojCjOv9FqWImdWHAQ-jCAbchSNcwRl0Ap3VpgzXxSwEvc3bJNEi8GMsb5Z9zSEMXzvwGybDrWxLmtEUAp32ffmVktDfEV3SRjdw2Q92KP77R_E79dE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEieslISFROHkYjjneIfPSNhaefaZlvOCRcl6vQb-T3Np04Ja1EMWDlNmr8Mac2kpC2JxIojCjOv9FqWImdWHAQ-jCAbchSNcwRl0Ap3VpgzXxSwEvc3bJNEi8GMsb5Z9zSEMXzvwGybDrWxLmtEUAp32ffmVktDfEV3SRjdw2Q92KP77R_E79dE=w354-h354" width="354" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-89744637170036077982024-03-01T10:47:00.000-08:002024-03-01T10:47:00.877-08:00Another Sign the Job Market is Cooling: Wage Hike for Job Switching Has Dropped From Its All-Time High<span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> On average, you get a wage hike for switching jobs. August of 2022, though, offered by the far largest premium for switching jobs, an average of 2.8% bigger raise than if you'd stayed in the same job. These last couple of months, though, that premium has returned to normal, suggesting that the job market is cooling.</span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiVyy9kZB1FS_lrC9uxtfZ6a4qGV21oj2hrL3RR3mSceyrkNGaDtJd9EPFbdvVS5eIRvc_mnKvI_a4UxPgjsKrQRJn0eWVH62--D0yfSwG4rBiiifW3jOFrcQ7lpZZHMFIbEmNlI0J0IkVKDyZY3vyUGbTb40-DCaQN6rbjdncc6R8YEze7HJMQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="1641" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiVyy9kZB1FS_lrC9uxtfZ6a4qGV21oj2hrL3RR3mSceyrkNGaDtJd9EPFbdvVS5eIRvc_mnKvI_a4UxPgjsKrQRJn0eWVH62--D0yfSwG4rBiiifW3jOFrcQ7lpZZHMFIbEmNlI0J0IkVKDyZY3vyUGbTb40-DCaQN6rbjdncc6R8YEze7HJMQ=w572-h178" width="572" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-8127786626594923232024-02-28T14:56:00.000-08:002024-02-28T14:56:03.661-08:00Real GDP Growth Highest in 18 years<span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Real GDP growth in 2023 was 3.1%.<br />The three years with highest real GDP growth in the last 19 years:<br />2021: 5.8%<br />2005: 3.5%<br />2023: 3.1%<br /><br />In simpler terms, GDP growth over the last few years - adjusted for inflation - is the best it's been in decades.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEghKqQ5249FzD_yxPgiFyH1c_QwGeP05FVKKKGgrXAqKLADSQ9VANhsX6pvC_c6zufbBMCoHBD__IKye3S_IFL6ejttHedMPOiSbfjqi-ZB5XHlnAzaAkFHcHYn6R-Zuge8IzpzerfRjUQe1NBPTOrDokerymTUFjX63hbpVSPdVI5hYJNSoV8X" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="1724" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEghKqQ5249FzD_yxPgiFyH1c_QwGeP05FVKKKGgrXAqKLADSQ9VANhsX6pvC_c6zufbBMCoHBD__IKye3S_IFL6ejttHedMPOiSbfjqi-ZB5XHlnAzaAkFHcHYn6R-Zuge8IzpzerfRjUQe1NBPTOrDokerymTUFjX63hbpVSPdVI5hYJNSoV8X=w507-h260" width="507" /></a></div><br /><br /><br />data: </span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1?fbclid=IwAR0d2FTpi3tD7B1iI5VyVVj5dutShzylWtweN5KLsx54QO7K5_2Umj6aoVg#0</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-77562541786658536822024-02-23T17:42:00.000-08:002024-02-23T17:42:02.447-08:0026 US Counties with Highest Wages - Silicon Valley Continues to Dominate <span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Silicon Valley wages continue to be the highest in the country, the only 3 counties where wages average more than twice what they average across the whole country.</span><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br />Raw data:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.t01.htm</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCogkwKLvpB1y-HTaqydnK9WWFsFDlUIWIGSWjhXbdCOI709tO5zJOYOg9Z7lbZnSZKzPA-8Xn5Tj0Dbai-rnh6McDtsz3FnnrNtGLC06StE7rcDFXQVZqDOwu5_NMWe-gBcftyawKvV1aN4V-Rf7wDQfureXBqv1b2muI6MxjTxWvJQIhDqx-" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="476" height="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCogkwKLvpB1y-HTaqydnK9WWFsFDlUIWIGSWjhXbdCOI709tO5zJOYOg9Z7lbZnSZKzPA-8Xn5Tj0Dbai-rnh6McDtsz3FnnrNtGLC06StE7rcDFXQVZqDOwu5_NMWe-gBcftyawKvV1aN4V-Rf7wDQfureXBqv1b2muI6MxjTxWvJQIhDqx-=w490-h600" width="490" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-91451815276652089632024-02-21T09:22:00.000-08:002024-02-21T09:22:18.832-08:00A Market Economy - Or What It Will Be Like When the Price of Lunch Bounces Around Like Stock Prices - Wendy's Adopts Dynamic Pricing<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">This amuses me far more than it should.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Everyday - all day - stock prices bounce up and down. I've wondered how long it'll be before all prices behave like that. Now Wendy's is adopting "dynamic pricing," creating a world where the price of lunch combos do indeed bounce around during the day, depending on fluctuations in supply and demand.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYD9rOh6yYhqAy9ZUL7uRDDw_iuXrk7MUL2F1VneO-jPs33zhbvOgu1qg_BA3WvPew04JoBfCfMfpLZg7xIlX8FVugIFkykJv8GHpyEfIsJZckszL_nKYmJvFSiqNbWn4A2QAkGkAQq7xa-oykXHTvQ3AahsvHWxh19gAmKVxYsCEIVh0TIh6T" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="730" data-original-width="1060" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYD9rOh6yYhqAy9ZUL7uRDDw_iuXrk7MUL2F1VneO-jPs33zhbvOgu1qg_BA3WvPew04JoBfCfMfpLZg7xIlX8FVugIFkykJv8GHpyEfIsJZckszL_nKYmJvFSiqNbWn4A2QAkGkAQq7xa-oykXHTvQ3AahsvHWxh19gAmKVxYsCEIVh0TIh6T=w399-h274" width="399" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Imagine an exasperated guy telling his partner, "Look at that! You had to visit the bathroom first. And then you had to let that lady with the kids cut in front of us. And now! Now french fries have gone up a dollar. Way to go Stephanie."<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">"Well, we could just sit here until prices drop again."<br />"What? For a dollar an hour?"<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">My cousin in Montana just had a bull sale. Those are auctions and maybe that's what the restaurants will try next. Hordes of hungry office workers and school kids bidding on the price of ramen or burgers like traders in the pits from the 1990s.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiodxxC7_y8nWXQKR9Ohrhj9tCg17ZH-QBqjHSmmGdV0RzTA7BzeKrRCC23ATWTFZq9hAV50nZ055EuPrcrhd7EM_b2owbAKgVc9iGKLV_vp40hd79P_Mo4d6c-BwOSpbxNfhONWdjc74nypu1OVPUpMGF89IZjMGnMf2QoYI0Iuy0GClp3yre7" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiodxxC7_y8nWXQKR9Ohrhj9tCg17ZH-QBqjHSmmGdV0RzTA7BzeKrRCC23ATWTFZq9hAV50nZ055EuPrcrhd7EM_b2owbAKgVc9iGKLV_vp40hd79P_Mo4d6c-BwOSpbxNfhONWdjc74nypu1OVPUpMGF89IZjMGnMf2QoYI0Iuy0GClp3yre7=w303-h303" width="303" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">"I hear $9.99, $9.99 ... oop! $10.99 to the kid in the hoodie... $10.99 ... going once ... twice ... Sold!"<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">A market economy.</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-32639682536726282752024-02-20T10:17:00.000-08:002024-02-20T10:17:59.136-08:00Invented Word of the Day: Petipreneur <span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;">I'm coining a few words today.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;"><i>Petipreneur</i>, noun. A person who engages in small acts of entrepreneurship that result in new routines, practices, or relationships that have the potential to spread or outlast them.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;"><i>Petipreneurship</i>, verb. A small act of inspiring or creating a new group, practice, or shared value. Less about creating an institution (which is better described as entrepreneurship) than about changing some portion of it or daily life.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;"><i>Petipreneurial</i>, adjective. A person who tends to create new practices, social norms and relationships. <br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;">Let me know if you have occasion to use it in conversation. Or even better, practice it.</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-8330493892991111052024-02-18T22:48:00.000-08:002024-02-18T22:48:38.012-08:00The Curiously Recursive Problem of the Meta-Fictional Genre<span style="font-family: times;"> His creative potential was never realized for the simple fact that he never could decide between doing documentaries about fictional work or fictionalized versions of documentaries. All he could be sure of is that he wanted to prove a point about how arbitrary was the line between fiction and nonfiction and as a consequence was never able to actually move from the concept - his fictional notions of the project - into the reality - the actual product that could share his ideas about reality with an audience. He'd encountered a curiously meta-fictional problem of being unable to document his fiction. The good news is that he'd pioneered a meta-fictional genre. The bad news is that this genre - by its very nature - could never become a reality he could share with anyone else. It was itself - like its imagined products - meta-fictional.</span><div><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgsnrQc0lCxQuU7XF5ghvhdW6aZZKDc_WMMEmBRp4iCpbxvqqv-vXHVHHZxnmmaOg1KanMWOrwJQul7CrCBdUSpKk4NPPqvU-kRV1JGj5NlR5apdY6Oi9vtAo4t0HnDCuZS7D6C9rRqaLbK576oTebl3xmZpMjQ7drk902VoPA3j_OfhAh7-t6" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="869" data-original-width="866" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgsnrQc0lCxQuU7XF5ghvhdW6aZZKDc_WMMEmBRp4iCpbxvqqv-vXHVHHZxnmmaOg1KanMWOrwJQul7CrCBdUSpKk4NPPqvU-kRV1JGj5NlR5apdY6Oi9vtAo4t0HnDCuZS7D6C9rRqaLbK576oTebl3xmZpMjQ7drk902VoPA3j_OfhAh7-t6=w393-h394" width="393" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-74186413319789623132024-02-16T06:03:00.000-08:002024-02-16T06:03:12.575-08:00Trump Needs the Support of Reasonable Republicans to Win. In November We Learn Their Price<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Trump can't win with just the support of the MAGA boys who thrill at Donald's casual racism and misogyny and enabling the invasion of Western Europe. He needs votes from reasonable Republicans who have voted for Trump because they have considered themselves Republicans because they really like lower taxes but they also consider themselves more aligned with the morals of a Mitt Romney than convicted rapist Donald Trump. <br />Biden made a promise he's kept: he won't raise taxes on incomes less than $400,000. What that means is that if - say - you make $500,000 a year and the difference in marginal tax rate from a Trump to a Biden is 2%, you would pay $2,000 more under a Biden than a Trump presidency. (And actually that has not yet happened but its a fear among many Republicans.) Out of a half a million income. So, essentially 0.4% (that four-tenths of a percent) of your total salary in additional taxes.<br />Trump will deport young adults who have never known any country but the US but came here "illegally" when they were little kids. Trump will enable Putin to invade countries throughout Western Europe. (Putin is the first European leader since Hitler to invade a neighboring country. Trump supports that.) <br />If the reasonable Republicans decide that they would need to be paid more than $2,000 to ruin or end so many lives, Trump has no chance of winning in November. The MAGA boys are not enough for a national victory.</span>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-43692396087314441252024-02-13T14:00:00.000-08:002024-02-13T14:00:22.312-08:00McGilchrist on Truth and Trust<span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5T9gxQxS0sW3axQ2Cq2YqzSHTrh6Cs4x217Dj3KcKC9W0caqQLemzuspfYKsYgb2w_p2BhEguj3ZbDNulte8Ha7fyObptaLcY8CgYqWbgoDG8hjqs0kTBKGNmPjFlvQnA0NVv552J_BePkallchvNoxPEf8WZhGnHMgANALvPRPYEZVzjsz__" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="452" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5T9gxQxS0sW3axQ2Cq2YqzSHTrh6Cs4x217Dj3KcKC9W0caqQLemzuspfYKsYgb2w_p2BhEguj3ZbDNulte8Ha7fyObptaLcY8CgYqWbgoDG8hjqs0kTBKGNmPjFlvQnA0NVv552J_BePkallchvNoxPEf8WZhGnHMgANALvPRPYEZVzjsz__" width="160" /></a></div>"Truth and trust, words that come from the same root, naturally go together. One cannot have trust in a society where no one is speaking the truth. and one cannot report truth to a society where there is no trust. Confucius told his disciple that a stable society needs three things: weapons, food, and trust. If you must forgo one of these, you should first forgo weapons. Then food. Without trust we cannot stand. Trust cost nothing but the time to build it. Once built it is a fantastically efficient way for any human enterprise to operate. There is a Dutch proverb, Trust arrives on foot but leaves on horseback."<br />- Dr Iain McGilchrist</blockquote><p> </p></span>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-13109584798390568132024-02-09T13:03:00.000-08:002024-02-09T13:32:35.730-08:00The Engineering of Consent and the Invention of Propaganda - Freud's Nephew Edward Bernays (1891 to 1995)"The engineering of consent is the very essence of the democratic process, the freedom to persuade and suggest."<br /><br />"We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of."<br /><br />"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country."<br /><br />These quotes are from Edward Bernays, Sigmund Freud's nephew. Bernays was the first to apply psychological principles to influence public opinion and market products. He was said to have "invented propaganda" for business and politics in a time of mass media, his life spanning the invention of the radio, the TV, and the internet. Bernays was born in 1891, in Vienna, Austria and died in 1995, in Cambridge, Massachusetts.<div><br /></div><div><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">Bernays originally used the term propaganda but once Hitler so openly used propaganda and Bernays' methods, Bernays changed the term to public relations.</span><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNGl2HH8HFUX26LkdCtpraOQl85i9fjG43fqaeBB_MmZfETbgQW1UMXkgNMOuzs1_iqLeIQ_v8_d2rG0a8ukiLAKHqt55W5Zq24eQ1Iu7a_IaPKywg6YIggbXVt0W-mb7msRHu0EXCRIHJ6hqH_Ew5_Rk2X-iwGYzOXdtJGgYahiMMqwaMWDHJ"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNGl2HH8HFUX26LkdCtpraOQl85i9fjG43fqaeBB_MmZfETbgQW1UMXkgNMOuzs1_iqLeIQ_v8_d2rG0a8ukiLAKHqt55W5Zq24eQ1Iu7a_IaPKywg6YIggbXVt0W-mb7msRHu0EXCRIHJ6hqH_Ew5_Rk2X-iwGYzOXdtJGgYahiMMqwaMWDHJ" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-75018569560295494692024-02-08T19:38:00.000-08:002024-02-08T19:38:50.184-08:00Trump's Tactical Error That Will Cost Him the Election<span style="font-family: helvetica;">Many nerds like me tend to think that politics is about facts and policies and programs. Here's a counterargument to that.</span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br />Hillary Clinton was more prepared and knowledgeable than any candidate in history. She had numerous policy papers.</span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHIGxLiUPHn0fQap9EjeIGMPjTFsPqzsFiaYyicR4AOEVlNTt4p-vyzM1Z9sgHFSMIJaOoCyzcrqM9ifwItg8GNQs73KIftXzEM4j_VzfQ-DAuq94LHFSvmUubrfQdb5SkR-Bn266k0JQtv1_suPfhpSveKVPohTVXa5cUCvZRue_pt4UKzxNL" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="743" data-original-width="724" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHIGxLiUPHn0fQap9EjeIGMPjTFsPqzsFiaYyicR4AOEVlNTt4p-vyzM1Z9sgHFSMIJaOoCyzcrqM9ifwItg8GNQs73KIftXzEM4j_VzfQ-DAuq94LHFSvmUubrfQdb5SkR-Bn266k0JQtv1_suPfhpSveKVPohTVXa5cUCvZRue_pt4UKzxNL=w279-h286" width="279" /></a></div><br />Trump didn't bother with policy papers. He just wrote Tweets. <br />Clinton's 2016 policy papers had more than 50,000 words total.<br />In 2016, Trump's tweets were never more than 140 characters. (The limit at the time. And those were characters, not words.)<br />No one read Clinton's policy papers. Everyone read Trump's tweets.<br />Trump kept everyone's attention and in 2016, he won.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br />In 2017, Twitter doubled its limit to 280 characters and in 2020, Trump lost. His tweets had become too long to hold our attention.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br />Now in 2024, Trump only posts to Truth Social, which has a 500 character limit.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br />A bloat from 140 to 280 to 500 characters, each iteration more demanding to read. Trump's biggest weakness as a candidate is his unfounded optimism about how much the attention-span of average Americans has grown in the last 8 years.</span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br />[A friend calls me aside. "Ron. It's like you don't even read your own posts. Do you actually think anyone has read this far? You think that people will make it to your conclusion?"<br />"I just thought ..."<br />"- Ron. Nobody is going to read this far."<br />"But ..."<br />"Shhh. Just read your own post. Nobody else will."]</span></div></div></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-31971132713757755462024-02-08T09:28:00.000-08:002024-02-08T09:28:20.658-08:00Progress Comes From the Interplay of Technology, Social Invention and New Ideas of What it Means to Be Human<span style="font-family: times;">Most people around the globe today are better off than our ancestors because citizens and workers in early industrial societies organized, challenged elite-dominated choices about technology and work conditions, and forced ways of sharing the gains from technical improvements more equitably.</span><div><span style="font-family: times;">- Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson<br /><br />Progress comes out of an interplay of technological and political advances, social invention and technological invention continually disrupting and reshaping each other, democracy and capitalism never getting the upper hand for long, and continually changing reality, people, and their institutions and each other. Economic progress includes technological change, cultural change, changes to processes and politics, and even to our notions of what it means to be human and what is possible. Progress impacts everything and is impacted by everything. </span><div><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwcjvqcCwoM9_jVC0BDm1k0CK632lN3sYEi6JKB3Uj-ggDn00z15fX6GxusIH0Q2NUJwlpLTR-_oP4X5qSAeRvUAP8gH_iwr96XPGpq6bo0TALdkWM0P6yXKu8oPPqoNypiHpJSn3GDWD1TF_Nc6S_1Uf2VTFSiBUQQyiCYkBMheHhRbnf8hxM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwcjvqcCwoM9_jVC0BDm1k0CK632lN3sYEi6JKB3Uj-ggDn00z15fX6GxusIH0Q2NUJwlpLTR-_oP4X5qSAeRvUAP8gH_iwr96XPGpq6bo0TALdkWM0P6yXKu8oPPqoNypiHpJSn3GDWD1TF_Nc6S_1Uf2VTFSiBUQQyiCYkBMheHhRbnf8hxM" width="240" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-73587851346868029772024-02-06T21:10:00.000-08:002024-02-07T05:55:06.457-08:00Economic Reporting As if It Were a Romance Novel<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">In romance novels:<br /></span><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">"It's a beautiful, sunny day Heathcliff. My heart is full. Please kiss me!"<br /></span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Heathcliff, mournfully, "Someday we are all going to die."</span> </blockquote><p> M<span style="font-family: times; font-size: large;">eanwhile, in economic reporting:</span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">"Unemployment is at its lowest in 60 years! The stock market is at record highs! Inflation has dropped to 2%. New business formation is 50% higher than it has ever been!"<br /></span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">"Yes but the economy will eventually fall into a recession. It might not be for a decade. It might start next month. But it will eventually falter. And that bad news - however speculative and far into the future - is the real news."</span></blockquote><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijkTjF5bDZbdMiJU8SbRIa44Gv8GCYklY7eAOn55_0mmLMDfBLezdMiXtxpHp07pt4On8U5SwWnDPr1iUbhEywnWEREJKmdZPyCLtGVv1TuXnZXjbXnyLnaEPfHbxDC4mYiW79jEs5d0wI61CK0_kU2Lr68I2YCmWot1rSAh4_BDfbRFzGZDVV" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="730" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijkTjF5bDZbdMiJU8SbRIa44Gv8GCYklY7eAOn55_0mmLMDfBLezdMiXtxpHp07pt4On8U5SwWnDPr1iUbhEywnWEREJKmdZPyCLtGVv1TuXnZXjbXnyLnaEPfHbxDC4mYiW79jEs5d0wI61CK0_kU2Lr68I2YCmWot1rSAh4_BDfbRFzGZDVV=w339-h343" width="339" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-55368688334092330802024-02-06T19:04:00.000-08:002024-02-06T19:06:41.158-08:00Biden's Mixed Feelings About Trump Learning That Presidents Are Not Immune From Prosecution<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">"A federal appeals court on Tuesday rejected former President Donald J. Trump’s claim that he was immune from prosecution for any crimes committed while in office." - NY Times, 2/6/2024</span><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGwDNe0fwEB3pPr2dD-L5AJ2IuRKK1bZRLSKAmeWZKYa3D7eAu6GgciZP2qE1CjqxeeSCMsE-bX5XHhlyWo04P4E8d_3bMGM_6T--6V6nrNL4ldTeCc6Ch4VZWDQf-Y9JOh6YWdUvSjxfXezyfNTWLZoVE-5_96QR_w17PklzT8I_szObYwxyO" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGwDNe0fwEB3pPr2dD-L5AJ2IuRKK1bZRLSKAmeWZKYa3D7eAu6GgciZP2qE1CjqxeeSCMsE-bX5XHhlyWo04P4E8d_3bMGM_6T--6V6nrNL4ldTeCc6Ch4VZWDQf-Y9JOh6YWdUvSjxfXezyfNTWLZoVE-5_96QR_w17PklzT8I_szObYwxyO=w260-h260" width="260" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br />President Biden had mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, his political opponent still faces criminal charges for plotting to subvert the 2020 election. On the other hand, he had to cancel the SEAL team he had scheduled to, er, take advantage of his presidential immunity for any crimes committed while in office.</span><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br />[If you're going to claim that presidents have immunity for any crimes committed while in office, you probably want to do that when you - and not your political opponent - are in office.]</span></div></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-80103457346936450882024-02-03T21:05:00.000-08:002024-02-03T21:11:02.396-08:00The Egg, the Potato, and the Coffee Bean in Hot Water<span style="font-family: georgia;">Just heard a new twist on an old story.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Put a potato, an egg, and a coffee bean into boiling water for a time.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">What happens to the first two you've probably heard before. <br />The egg is made hard by the experience and the potato is made soft, By the exact same experience. So there's that.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The new (to me) story continues to point out that the coffee bean adapted to the situation, not becoming hard or soft but just going with it.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxD7KZpUjuauHFeXts3KFBJDRHL2YKrrvWDe6CBTPZdOBpSWua52Ix0i9ISQadlbH_NUx3PESp2YN2EhBllTIcsiodlgLQildUkOLTuGVS27O2NmsG3e2r-XlXKd50kXVJ0jWky1YZZi5eEjU3JqYosPqFPfh3XPKqvPjKq9UMdH1pKr6KATSM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxD7KZpUjuauHFeXts3KFBJDRHL2YKrrvWDe6CBTPZdOBpSWua52Ix0i9ISQadlbH_NUx3PESp2YN2EhBllTIcsiodlgLQildUkOLTuGVS27O2NmsG3e2r-XlXKd50kXVJ0jWky1YZZi5eEjU3JqYosPqFPfh3XPKqvPjKq9UMdH1pKr6KATSM=w300-h300" width="300" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">I think a more interesting interpretation is that the coffee bean changed the situation: it turned the water into something different, turned it into coffee. <br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Interesting choices. Could be made hard by the experience, made soft by it or change the experience from a trial into something stimulating. Or maybe just something that's kind of bitter and keeps you up at nights. (I may need to work on this lesson a bit.)</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-86716348565298050822024-01-31T20:33:00.000-08:002024-01-31T20:33:08.816-08:00Powell's Risk Has Shifted from Inflation to Unemployment<span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">I don't pretend to have any special insights into financial markets and inflation so feel free to roll your eyes at this and scroll on to that funny meme about the Super Bowl but ...<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Fed Chair Powell's insistence on seeing data to prove that inflation has come down or that job markets are faltering before he cuts rates seems to me to ignore the inevitable lag in the effects of higher rates. The data we see this month is a function of forces from months ago. If you wait for evidence, you'll wait too long.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">The Fed has a dual mandate: keep inflation AND unemployment low. In my opinion, without a near-term rate hike, the risk of inflation above 2% is now much lower than the risk of unemployment rising above 4%. Put differently, I think it's time for Powell to start worrying more about continued strength in the job market and less about inflation again rising. It will be too late if he won't change until he has proof.</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-12628920623957016352024-01-26T09:41:00.000-08:002024-01-26T09:41:44.786-08:00The Absurdly Good Fourth Quarter of 2023 (a heck of a way to run a recession)<span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The 4th Quarter of 2023 was almost comically good. <br />(All averages are for this 21st century.)<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b>Inflation:</b><br />target: 2%<br />actual: 2%<br />Avg: 2.6%<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b>Job creation for quarter:</b><br />494k<br />Avg: 275k<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b>Unemployment rate:</b><br />3.7%<br />Avg: 5.8%<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b>NASDAQ change in 4th Q:</b><br />Up 14%<br />Avg: Up 2.7%<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b>GDP Growth for 4Q 2023:</b><br />Up 3.3%<br />Avg: 2%<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">It's a heck of a way to run a recession.</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-61776185826334392772024-01-25T14:05:00.000-08:002024-01-25T14:05:40.218-08:002024 Year of the Dragon - Boldness, Enthusiasm, Innovation and ... Imagination<span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">We're just a couple of weeks away from the Year of the Dragon. The dragon is the most promising - and definitely the coolest looking - of the 12 Chinese animals. February 10 marks the start of a year for boldness, enthusiasm, and innovation. You know - for a change.<br /><br />And when the animal for a year is imaginary, that has to say something about the importance of imagination, right?* In any case, it's a second chance to start the new year right. </span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj60A1ZCo2_mY6GhKYNEVh0dwHL_DK9vywBNQCK4TV0Nw1QCqpzLOF0x8wsNxVPp8nmixi3poB23nsmQadyR4gZxEE2SI2L9CuxhMiA50X0AEQlSnEvF5oKAAYGI91DzVcG3rFoayBn7Bzb_coF7QDf8cfzHEQP7fMHZKfFZHEGtcucvjcQQ8qh" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj60A1ZCo2_mY6GhKYNEVh0dwHL_DK9vywBNQCK4TV0Nw1QCqpzLOF0x8wsNxVPp8nmixi3poB23nsmQadyR4gZxEE2SI2L9CuxhMiA50X0AEQlSnEvF5oKAAYGI91DzVcG3rFoayBn7Bzb_coF7QDf8cfzHEQP7fMHZKfFZHEGtcucvjcQQ8qh=w350-h350" width="350" /></a></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: large;">*</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: large;">"What's this new year like?" </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: large;">"A dragon."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: large;">"What's that like?" </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: large;">"Well, it's not real so I guess whatever you imagine." </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: large;">Now that sounds like a year when a person can fully explore the notion of free will.</span><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-60711320905450270482024-01-25T08:25:00.000-08:002024-01-25T08:25:01.873-08:00Economic Data on Jobs, S&P 500, GDP Growth and Deficits From Reagan Through Biden's Presidencies - Spot the Patterns<span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Spot the patterns.<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">It seems to me that there are 2.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">1. Deficits grow under Republican presidents and shrink under Democratic presidents.<br />2. Job creation is stronger during Democratic presidencies.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">These could be random but I doubt it.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Republican presidents consistently cut taxes. (Trump rather famously cut taxes by about a trillion - a cut that went disproportionately to the rich) Cutting taxes without cutting spending leads to deficits. That's not fancy philosophy. That's arithmetic. Deficits inevitably grow under Republican presidents because they have a clear plan for cutting taxes but no plan for cutting spending.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Job creation is stronger under Democratic presidents because they are the party that focuses more on labor and the job market in contrast to Republicans who focus more on capital markets. Keynesian economics is largely dismissed by Republican presidents and largely supported by data. Timely stimulus can help job markets to recover. And as importantly, unfettered or unregulated capital markets will invariably lead to booms and busts that are particularly tough for the labor market (which is to say, those people who depend on jobs and not wealth to support their living expenses).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br />Perhaps you can see other patterns. I'd be curious as to what those are.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWfDC1ZfTYiiDwTkMARZfG0CTHlh288tTCcCi5BZIM675BsPYfS0-TjdoyN1eFcT9AIzRSvyl-NEMXPmG90UYe2Rlk399WXjJ7tzlhSyTy1CUTw4btNTOJShmLHTFQSxiBhegN2y7g3v8Oh0Ea8qb6SOACQMlHQv8lcmbv2lX2pjFiMXXcDytn" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="1724" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWfDC1ZfTYiiDwTkMARZfG0CTHlh288tTCcCi5BZIM675BsPYfS0-TjdoyN1eFcT9AIzRSvyl-NEMXPmG90UYe2Rlk399WXjJ7tzlhSyTy1CUTw4btNTOJShmLHTFQSxiBhegN2y7g3v8Oh0Ea8qb6SOACQMlHQv8lcmbv2lX2pjFiMXXcDytn" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9kfDX1-K75T7PRlf2wk2M0s1ErrhukDAZNFhhKX1n7PDyb8DfKlqh70bRrRWsaO84YOM8aEH8E9zrRz1WhCkIOEfa82CsgceyNUfhrbIfoz6hQ-KlzPeIeggZnoB1zYhlX9e6gnDTGv4GYYVnnxfD1Ea1TiZCZZNZqeh1C3gum8P9yWGh1kkC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="1724" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9kfDX1-K75T7PRlf2wk2M0s1ErrhukDAZNFhhKX1n7PDyb8DfKlqh70bRrRWsaO84YOM8aEH8E9zrRz1WhCkIOEfa82CsgceyNUfhrbIfoz6hQ-KlzPeIeggZnoB1zYhlX9e6gnDTGv4GYYVnnxfD1Ea1TiZCZZNZqeh1C3gum8P9yWGh1kkC" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhobO53LSWMEQ_wnonX0Ach-1E5r-OysDCnCNlBMe3wSbPt8q4a34KV5SKg97bQ3LtXGHm8QoOYWnIS4SHm5wd3D-Sv5bDL0TkJ8XlBInkqUVzgWk0uxTWZ1dRvBBvjc6pVYJb0LQF7uJ51OLabMRldN_hnAYHgx3Badl9vPGdeUIefOaWYwOp7" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="739" data-original-width="1802" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhobO53LSWMEQ_wnonX0Ach-1E5r-OysDCnCNlBMe3wSbPt8q4a34KV5SKg97bQ3LtXGHm8QoOYWnIS4SHm5wd3D-Sv5bDL0TkJ8XlBInkqUVzgWk0uxTWZ1dRvBBvjc6pVYJb0LQF7uJ51OLabMRldN_hnAYHgx3Badl9vPGdeUIefOaWYwOp7" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2FVueW3_GcIcTAeWNRU-6KCTLN6JtvkLq_CCtp7EhrftEzDg46wNiVUcGwlYUCCS8sGpY4euDSaP-K5feRDmKOfiFCBNuw-ADIcDRvzoKqqST88lKStWlX3DfVE51KSHvSwCKXtvEqrde3EY826cVlKAuBkixTh8WbPwlnNURibdnSZGr7mzU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1407" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2FVueW3_GcIcTAeWNRU-6KCTLN6JtvkLq_CCtp7EhrftEzDg46wNiVUcGwlYUCCS8sGpY4euDSaP-K5feRDmKOfiFCBNuw-ADIcDRvzoKqqST88lKStWlX3DfVE51KSHvSwCKXtvEqrde3EY826cVlKAuBkixTh8WbPwlnNURibdnSZGr7mzU" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-57684919175446616262024-01-23T06:44:00.000-08:002024-01-23T21:14:16.258-08:00You Must Be This Angry to Vote - Donald's Republican Party<span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><i>"America is too great for small dreams."</i><br />- Ronald Reagan</span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /><i>“We’re a nation whose economy is collapsing into a cesspool of ruin. We have become a drug infested, crime-ridden nation, which is incapable of solving the simplest of problems.”</i><br />- Donald Trump</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />Reagan's "It's morning again in America," has become Trump's campaign marked by "mourning again in America."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />This negativity is helped along by almost laughably negative economics coverage. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />If it were a novel, it would include dialogue like this: <br /></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"It's a beautiful, sunny day Heathcliff. Kiss me!"</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Heathcliff, through clenched teeth, "Someday we are all going to die."</span></div></blockquote><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But given it is "news" coverage, it sounds like this: <br /></span></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"Unemployment is at record lows! The stock market is at record highs! Inflation is dramatically lower!"</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"Yes but the economy will eventually fall into a recession. It might not be for a decade. It might be next week. But it will eventually falter. And that <i>bad</i> news - however speculative - is the real news."</span></div></blockquote><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /><br />There is a new, not so amusing sign, hanging outside today's Republican Circus - I mean Party.</span><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3mxRleQ6utN7PPoW-iXhqBbFtLUzpVeL5CHhQ0bwyt1k7FH9CM9Jq_MgF_oEBh_e2DsYDVkz44M2FFJ1tudSMxK9C-AKa5NifaAHfniZUkbJGIaXYUS3-bA8L-4rHnukXjHgXxqHMAPDo7TDp6Gz-840APCX8vDxL5uvS0WdomQ_cNTxhmE-8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3mxRleQ6utN7PPoW-iXhqBbFtLUzpVeL5CHhQ0bwyt1k7FH9CM9Jq_MgF_oEBh_e2DsYDVkz44M2FFJ1tudSMxK9C-AKa5NifaAHfniZUkbJGIaXYUS3-bA8L-4rHnukXjHgXxqHMAPDo7TDp6Gz-840APCX8vDxL5uvS0WdomQ_cNTxhmE-8=w313-h313" width="313" /></a></div><br /><p></p></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32914592.post-76195926095889083712024-01-19T11:55:00.000-08:002024-01-19T11:55:49.095-08:00Haecceity: the irreducible determination of a thing that makes it this particular thing<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Haecceity</i> is a term from medieval scholastic philosophy, first coined by followers of Duns Scotus to denote a concept that he seems to have originated: the irreducible determination of a thing that makes it this particular thing.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />I kind of love this: the irreducible determination of a thing that makes it this particular thing. Or, the irreducible determination of a person that makes it this particular person.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />So, what is your haecceity?</span></div>Ron Davisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11972794876337195698noreply@blogger.com2