Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
28 April 2020

When the Ignored Predictions Have the Best Chance of Coming True

›
Sometimes, your prediction has to be ignored in order to come true. Someone predicts that a stock will skyrocket in price over the next few ...
06 December 2014

In Which Your Blog Author Manages to Turn a Big Stock Market Prediction into a Very Small Gain

›
On October 13, I made a prediction about job numbers and a prediction about the stock market .  Here is the prediction I blogged abou...
07 June 2014

Households, Government and Businesses Are In Position for a New Boom

›
The economy is in the best position it's been for all of this century. Households have paid down debt and increased wealth, now positi...
05 June 2014

This Jobs Recovery Has Quietly Crept Up on the Record for Longest Expansion

›
Tomorrow's job report will probably extend the streak of months with uninterrupted job growth to 44, placing it 3rd among recorded strea...
02 May 2014

Today's April Jobs Report Adds to the Promise of 2014

›
This is  the jobs report I prematurely forecast last month for March . It took a month longer to happen than I thought, but this ~300,000 jo...
01 May 2014

Spending is Up But Debt is Down. This Might Be the Start of a Sustainable Boom

›
Last month consumer spending rose 0.9%, its largest uptick since April of 2009. That alone is good news. Even better, families are in a much...
05 April 2014

Two Reasons Why This Recovery Feels So Anemic (And Why Even Normal Could Create a Boom)

›
The economy is recovering but we've yet to feel a wave of optimism sweep across the country. The two biggest reasons are that the 2000s ...
03 April 2014

Forecasting Job Numbers for Tomorrow and the Unemployment Rate for 2014 (and Beyond)

›
Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics unveils their job numbers for March, reporting job creation and the unemployment rate. My prediction...
11 March 2014

Measuring the Future as Well as the Past - Adding Entrepreneurial Activity to Measures of GDP and Unemployment

›
In the wake of the Great Depression, the US began to measure GDP. Simon Kuznets, in 1937, presented his formulation of gross domestic produc...
21 February 2011

Finally - an Ophiuchus Horoscope

›
Recently, a new astrological sign was announced. Sadly, no one seems to have updated the daily horoscopes with the inclusion of this 13th gr...
26 August 2010

Time to Run & Scream! (or not)

›
The Hindenburg Omen IS Scary (read here ) I'm sorry. I should take this seriously. My portfolio is again lying on the tracks while a tra...
07 February 2010

A Little Reminder on the Limits of Prediction

›
Hank Paulson and Alan Greenspan were on Face the Nation today . The former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman may well represent as much as...
01 February 2009

Bernard's Super Bowl Prediction

›
Surprisingly, Bernard had a prediction over breakfast today. "Somebody wins, somebody loses," he said matter of factly. "That...
2 comments:
23 December 2008

2009 Predictions That Are Safer Than a SubPrime Mortgage

›
It seems only proper that a blogger predict the future. I mean, what are you paying for if not some reassurance that 2009 will be different ...
5 comments:
11 November 2008

The Three Stages of Understanding (Or, Why We Don't Trust Experts)

›
In this country, we have a distrust of experts. I have one theory about why that might be. Systems are defined by interaction. Worse, the in...
4 comments: