09 August 2011

ADD News Covers Causation

I remember once stumbling across two maps about the same time. The one showed European countries color coded by when the serfs had been freed. The next map showed those same countries color coded by per caipta income. To my eye, the correlation was striking. And it suggests that one of the best ways to raise income here in the 21st century is to free your serfs back in the 17th century.

So much of what passes for analysis today ignores causation that dates back much further than Monday. While this might make for some invigorating arguments, it does little to reveal any actual causation or, for that matter, suggest change of any substance.

There is one caveat to this. While creation is slow, destruction is quick. When an event is actually caused by some action only a short time before, it is almost inevitably destructive - at least in the realm of economics and progress.

1 comment:

Norman said...

The tree grows slowly, until lightning ends it in a flash.