How Hosting or Squelching Science Determines Where Progress Goes Next

In 1642, Galileo died and Newton was born. That's still a poignant symbol of the hand off from Italy to Britain for progress.

In 1500, Italy's per capita GDP was about 50% higher than Britain's. By 1820, Britain's per capita GDP was about 50% higher than Italy's.

Galileo was arguing that the earth rotated around the sun. The church had the authority of Joshua 10:13, a verse that made it clear that it was in fact the sun that orbited the earth. They put Galileo under house arrest and made it clear that developing theories based on observation was not to be tolerated as long as Italy had the church's authority.

Science traveled north. The Protestants of Northern Europe accommodated Galileo's theories and became host to the scientific method that the Italians had helped revive from Greek and Roman time. Newton went further than Galileo, developing a set of laws to explain what Galileo observed. Newton's science and math became a foundation for the Enlightenment and that, in turn, became a foundation for the Industrial Revolution and Democracy. Italy protected its past and the UK created a new future.

Today, we have a similar inflection point in the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy. China now leads in the production of wind turbines and solar panels. Meanwhile, we Americans have elected a president intent on protecting coal - an industry that dates back to the time of Newton. Trump - like so many of his supporters - denies climate change in the same way that the Catholic Church denied we orbit around the sun. And science, less interested in the vested interests of coal industry profits or old testament prophets than reality, is shifting away from the greatest home to science since, well, Italy during the Renaissance or the UK during the Enlightenment.

Economic growth and prosperity follows science. It has for centuries. If we continue to deny the reality of climate change and what that means for a shift in strategies and the source of prosperity, we will play the role of Italy in the 1600s. It's not a good role. Shakespeare - born the same year as Galileo - set half his tragedies there.

Top 26 Largest US Cities Ranked by Median Household Income

For context, US median household income for 2015 (the year reported on above) was $55,775.

Data sources:
Population of cities here.
Median household income for cities in 2015 here.

Related - highest income communities here. (Top 20 listed below, these are much smaller places and thus vary more from US median.)

File Under "Reasons to Be Optimistic." Is Entrepreneurship the Reason US Recovery is Stronger Than Europe's?

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) report on entrepreneurial activity is promising on two counts for the US. First, it shows that the steady trend for entrepreneurial activity here is upwards. Second, it shows  a sharp drop in "necessity driven entrepreneurship," suggesting that the job market's recovery won't inhibit this rise.

The above chart shows the percentage of the population between 18 and 64 who are either a nascent entrepreneur or owner-manager of a business. While this number dropped through the worst of the recession, it has now recovered to its best levels in the century. (At 12.7% it is essentially where it was in 2012, when it hit 12.8%.)  That's great news.

When financial markets convulsed and credit disappeared, it made sense that the number of new business ventures would drop. But of course as layoffs spiked, it also makes sense that more people would be forced into entrepreneurship. If you can't find a job, you have more incentive to make one.

Well, the GEM tracks the relative prevalence of this ""necessity driven entrepreneurship," as well. It captures the percentage of folks who have gone the entrepreneurial route because they had no other options for income. 

As you can see, Spain - where unemployment is still above 20% - continues to rise in necessity-driven entrepreneurship. Such entrepreneurship is too often driven more by fear than hope. In the US, though, there has been a sharp drop in this type of entrepreneurship from 37% to 21% of total entrepreneurial activity. As the labor market has recovered, fewer Americans are forced into entrepreneurship.

Finally, Kauffman tracks entrepreneurs who are currently setting up businesses. These are ventures that still haven't paid salaries but promise to create jobs and wealth. This is a measure of early-stage startups. Here, the US stands out with rates that have doubled in the last few years and are double those in most of Europe.

This nascent entrepreneurship rate is a pretty shocking number, really. Not only has it jumped from 4.9% in 2010 to 9.2% of the workforce in 2013, it is more than double the rate in the UK (3.6%) or Norway (2.9%). 

Most of these startups will fail. Still, you miss all of the new jobs that you don't try to create. This bodes well for the US and could be the simplest explanation of why Europe's GDP is close to dipping into yet another recession even as the US is flirting with GDP growth of 4% and about to extend its record for consecutive months of job creation. It seems to me as good a reason as any for optimism.