Showing posts with label google. Show all posts
Showing posts with label google. Show all posts

17 January 2020

Alphabet (Google) Joins the Trillion Dollar Club

This week Google joined Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in the trillion-dollar valuation club. 

Location matters.
Microsoft and Amazon headquarters are 11.7 miles apart.
Apple and Google headquarters are 8.7 miles apart.

In 1901 US Steel became the first billion dollar company.
1955, GM, first to hit $10 billion
1995, GE, first to hit $100 billion
1999, Microsoft, first to hit $500 billion
2018, Apple, first to hit $1 trillion.

Here are some things you may find by googling Google.

Larry Page DOWNLOADED THE INTERNET in 1996 as part of his doctoral work at Stanford.

Larry Page grew up in the Bay Area and his dad was a big Grateful Dead fan, had a weekly radio show about the Dead. When Google could afford it, Larry Page hired a chef who had worked for the Grateful Dead to feed his employees. Every winter they had employee trips up to Squaw Valley and one year, Google employees were coming back to the chef to ask what had been in the ganja goo balls that was making them hallucinate.

3 years ago someone at Google told me they were spending $2 billion a year on employee meals. (Food - the fuel of knowledge workers - is free at Google.) I'm sure that has gone up. I don't think they serve ganja goo balls anymore.

In 1998, Jeff Bezos was so impressed with Page and Brin that he invested $250,000 in Google, buying what is now 6.6 million shares at the equivalent of 4 cents per share. (It closed today at $1,479.52 a share, so up 39,059X on Bezos investment.)

02 November 2017

Freud, Jung, Hidden Impulses, the Collective Unconscious, Hitler, Putin, Conspicuous Consumption and - Finally - Community

Freud's Couch Was Sort of a Bed
About a century ago two competing models for modern media emerged in the U.S. and Germany. Using what they were learning about psychology, the Nazis created state propaganda to sway the masses to serve the interests of the state and advertisers in the U.S. used those same insights to serve the interests of the corporation. (A fascinating documentary, the Century of the Self, makes this argument and can be found here.)

William James published what some argue was the first textbook on psychology - the Principles of Psychology - in 1890 and Freud published The Interpretation of Dreams in 1900 and Civilization and its Discontents in 1930. If you visit the apartment in Vienna where Freud pioneered psychotherapy you don't just see that the Freudian couch was actually a bed. (Freud thought that a bed was a safe and  cozy place from which to free associate but perhaps the preponderance of sexual references would have given way to a preponderance of food references had he instead used a kitchen table.) What you get from the museum that once was his office is this very exciting sense of the mind as a new frontier. Rather than blame spirits or madness for weird thoughts and behavior, these early psychologists were taking a scientific approach to the mind, hoping to better understand the impulses that seemed to lay below the seemingly thin veneer of our civility. Jung's concept of the collective unconscious might be suspect but it gets to the reality that something binds us that is almost mystical and that these impulses could be tapped to sway large groups to do strange things - like drive to the mall on a sunny day or shout angry slogans at political rallies.

These insights were exploited with new and transformative technology of that time. The radio was the first technology to allow people across an entire nation to hear about the wonders of the Third Reich or nylons and electric razors and it was quickly followed by TV.

Obviously it made an enormous difference whether a community used these powerful new media technology to promote the interests of the state or the corporation. Someone once said that the book most likely to change minds in the Soviet Union would be the Sears Catalog. Magazines, newspapers, radio and TV shaped minds - and thus communities - as only churches and sacred texts had before. And it was no coincidence that the state and corporation undermined the dominance of the church last century.

This century's transformative media is the internet and the social media it has enabled. The shift in advertising revenue from newspapers to the internet has shattered old business models and forced a scramble to discover new audiences and sources of revenue for reporting and commentary.

And curiously, the choice about whether this model will be funded by the state or the corporation, by advertising for political interest and shared values or great values on products you'll love, is still in question. This week's senate hearings with the social media giants Facebook, Twitter, and Google gets to the question of how social media has been used to manipulate voters and thus American policy rather than merely focus on getting us to buy more goods.

It's worth noting that this is social media.

About the same time as the emergence of the radio and television, a third really powerful technology emerged: the telephone. This was intimate and personal and allowed two people to communicate and in the process strengthen relationships. I think it's telling that so much of the internet is experienced on a phone. Even though actual talking on the phone is not even in the top ten activities people do with their phones, what they're doing is closer to what was done on the phone last century than what was done with TV and radio. They're creating and feeling part of a community.

Community is a third goal, different from the goals of consumption and propaganda. I think one thing we're seeing in the success of Twitter and Facebook is the strong impulse to belong. You can dismiss this as tribalism but I think it speaks to communities of the mind and shared values, to what it means to be human and feel the part of something larger. It's worth noting that the strength and vulnerability of these brands is that they are platforms. Zuckerberg doesn't make editorial decisions about what posts your Aunt Leola or cousin Curt should make on Facebook. They do. Your friends are rarely selling goods or trying to win votes for the political party they are starting. (Although I admit I would be interested in seeing the posts of someone who was starting a new party; that sounds like an interesting person.) They are simply connecting, sharing what they are proud of, what impresses them, what they are worried about and what made them laugh. The third way beyond media as a tool for conspicuous consumption or political propaganda is media a tool for creating communities of the mind, of shared interests and simple friendships. It's not novel that people would do that; it is novel that people could do that across distances, with a tool more inclusive than the phone or the kitchen table.

13 December 2014

Halfway Point of the Decade that Will Transform the Middle East

Arab Spring seems to have begun with Mohammed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old Tunisian with 6 kids. Police had confiscated his vegetable cart – his livelihood - in December of 2010. When officials refused to hear his complaint, he protested by setting himself on fire. Within a month protesters had ousted Tunisia’s government.[1] 

This was the start of Arab Spring, a contagion of protest and revolution that swept through the Middle East. By 2013, the heads of state in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen had been chased from office and civil wars had started in two countries and protests in half a dozen others. These were protests orchestrated through Twitter and Facebook and played out in the streets with guns and tear gas. Secularists and religious groups have agreed to oust dictators but now have to agree about how to govern.

For me, this picture of the Camel with Google camera mounted on it seems to capture the Middle East's current, odd juxtaposition of old world and new better than anything I could imagine. 

Evolution is hugely defined by environment. The Middle East is going through democratic revolution and reform in such a very different environment than did the West that it will be fascinating to see what it produces. Hopefully, among the things it produces there will be at least a few more pictures like this. 




[1] Jim Clifton’s The Coming Jobs War, (New York, NY, Gallup Press, 2011) Kindle location 558. 
Picture from Slate, video here.

30 September 2014

“Can the U.S. economy be doing all that well if ‘Kidney’ is a common autofill?”

Two things can be true: the economy is getting better and things are incredibly hard for some people. The social safety net has holes in it large enough for entire families to fall through.

An article from Forbes' staffer Maggie McGrath about non-traditional measures of economic well-being includes this sobering statistic.

Data from Google’s search autofill — which updates the most likely completion of often-searched-for phrases, like “near me” or “that deliver” for the phrase “pizza places” — supports the food stamp data and the hunch that Americans are still feeling the ill effects of the recession. ConvergEx found that the phrase “I want to sell” autofills with “my car,” “my house,” and most concerning, “my kidney.” The word kidney has cracked the top three autofill results every quarter since the fourth quarter of 2013.
“Can the U.S. economy be doing all that well if ‘Kidney’ is a common autofill?” Colas asks.

04 June 2014

There is no Bubble in Venture Capital for Tech Firms.

In 2010

Mortgage financing is 647X as much as what we plow into tech startups. Outstanding consumer credit is 147X as much as the VC community puts into technology startups.

Since the start of the year, Facebook has spent more than $21 billion acquiring startups and Google has spent $4 billion. That's $25 billion in acquisitions for just two of the more prominent names in tech in just the first 5 months of this year. Meanwhile, VCs put only $24 billion into startups all of last year.

My own sense is that the venture capital market is still far from mature, perhaps where consumer credit was in the 1970s when the modern credit card was just emerging. 

There is a question about whether Venture Capital is fueling another bubble, akin to 2000. Based on this data, I don't think so. Not even close. It seems to me - given the importance and potential of new ventures - the ratio of financing for new ventures is - if anything - too low compared to mortgages and consumer credit. In a decade we might find talk of bubble in 2014 comical.




11 July 2009

Betting on Google (or Why Chrome OS Is a Lottery Ticket Worth Scratching Off)

The guys at Google came up with a secret sauce in the form of algorithms that efficiently and quickly search the Internet. They understand probabilities. And that might be as good a reason as any to bet on their continued success.

Google has a fascinating policy of letting programmers work one day a week – 20% of their time – on their own projects. This has already translated into popular products like gmail and google news. Some projects come from central management and some come from the cubicles. This is not much different from successful economies where some projects (e.g., NASA or the early Internet) come from centrally-planned government programs and some come from unexpected sources like the garage or the back of a cocktail napkin.

One of the insights to come from the world of probabilities and into the world of finance in the last century is the notion of the high probability of low probability events. The lottery is the simplest example. The odds of any ONE person winning are incredibly low. Buying a lottery ticket to win money is almost like buying an airplane ticket to commit suicide. The odds are terribly low for any one person to win and yet the odds that SOMEONE will win are incredibly high.

Venture capitalists differ greatly from bankers in this regard: they take an equity position in success and know that only a small percentage of their investments have to become the next Yahoo or … well, Google in order to offset the many investments that don’t pay off. They don’t embrace failure but they know it is inevitable.

Google has seemed to realize that a corporation has a huge advantage over a venture capitalist in this game. A corporation can provide a risk free environment in which individuals can start projects that might become market successes or merely technical successes or might never become successful. The corporation can provide the infrastructure (e.g., HR, marketing, etc.) that can absorb so much time from the entrepreneur. And if one of these projects like gmail or google news should become successful, they offset the many projects that don't come to fruition.

Further, even the failures are never clearly failures. If an employee learns a new skill or gains a new market insight from trying something new, that can be applied to the next venture. And with everyone taking on their own project, the entire organization has a vastly different mindset in regards to projects. Thinking about how to create and deliver products to market becomes pervasive. This sort of culture can be more valuable than any one project.

All that to say that the many critics who are already pointing out why Google Chrome OS – Google’s attempt to capture Operating System market from Microsoft – will fail could be right. The odds of this ONE product becoming a success are pretty low. (But it is still a good bet. Microsoft gets about $15 billion a year in revenue from Windows.) But each time they try another venture like this, the odds of generating profit to match what's generated by their search engine go up.

Oh, and one other thing. I remember when Microsoft’s Excel and Word were obvious failures. It took some time before they seemed like something other than cute substitutes for the seemingly invincible Lotus 1-2-3 and Multimate Word Processor. The fact that gmail does not have as much market share as Outlook does not mean it will not eventually have more. It is rarely the released product that conquers the market – it is usually the evolved product that owns a market.

It is true that lottery tickets are unlikely to pay off. It is also true that only people who buy them ever win the lottery.

29 March 2007

Today I Hate Google

I'm intrigued to see the words and phrases people use to find R World. I found it flattering and oddly disorientating weeks ago when I was in the top five for searches on "reasons to pull out of Iraq." It felt good to be there between the BBC and MSNBC on such a search and while I found it confusing that a blog getting about 2 readers per week would rank up there with the 2 thousand per nanosecond sites like the BBC, it was a happy confusion. I've shown up at or near the top of the search lists for other curiously esoteric phrases that include mention of such oddities as western civilization, social evolution, or economic goods. I've generally found the search results that result in a hit on R World more curious than offensive. That is, until today.

Today, some poor soul enters the following into google:
98.9% of what i do is motivated by spite and porn
Number one on the search results? R World. Sigh.

Today, I hate google.