I suspect that it's tough to get reservations at the few fancy restaurants in town this week. Their stock has been on quite the run, up more than 75% in the last month. Be an interesting study for someone at Boise State to look at the effect of that level of new wealth in a relatively small city, an increase in market cap of about 240 billion in just a month in a city of just 240,000 - or about a million dollars per person. (I know. A lot of this is held by institutional investors, etc. but still.)
08 May 2026
A Stunning Rise in Boise's Wealth
I suspect that it's tough to get reservations at the few fancy restaurants in town this week. Their stock has been on quite the run, up more than 75% in the last month. Be an interesting study for someone at Boise State to look at the effect of that level of new wealth in a relatively small city, an increase in market cap of about 240 billion in just a month in a city of just 240,000 - or about a million dollars per person. (I know. A lot of this is held by institutional investors, etc. but still.)
07 May 2026
Are We Smart Enough to Use AI?
And yet.
06 May 2026
Does Trump Give His Supporters a Feeling of Superiority?
Ted Turner Died Today
The Turner quotes that have entered general circulation tend to be his more aphoristic ones: "I am too rich to talk to. I'm a billionaire." "Sports is like a war without the killing."
What stuck with me, though, was a story he told about becoming a billionaire and how anticlimactic that was. At first he was excited about it but realized he couldn't exactly call his friends with the news. "Hey! I'm rich! Far richer than you!" So he called his wife who simply said something like, "Good for you. Does this mean you can come home early to help with the kids?"
He gave away a third of his net worth to the United Nations in 1997, before the giving pledge made such philanthropy fashionable. He took the position that money was how the game was scored but not what made life worth living.
05 May 2026
Who Is Now Wearing the Crown Jewels Stolen from the Louvre?
Bedlam in Southern California
Today is both Cinco de Mayo and Taco Tuesday.
Madness in Southern California.
Venture Capital or Startup Funding This Century
Global Startup Funding continues to be a huge force for creating new jobs, technology, markets, businesses and wealth.
(ZIRP refers to zero interest rate policy, a time when money was so cheap that investments became even more alluring.)If You Think Trump is Too Old Today - Just Wait Until Tomorrow!
In 2024, Trump supporters incessantly claimed that Joe Biden was too old.
So they then elected a guy who broke Biden's record as oldest president on inauguration day.
Now most Americans believe that Trump is too old.
Maybe, before we get into policy discussions, we could simply walk people through addition.
Biden on inauguration day: 78 years, 2 months.
Trump on inauguration day: 78 years, 7 months.
Given it is a four year term and how math and calendars work, a man who breaks the record for oldest president on inauguration day will break the record for oldest president on every following day of his presidency. (Oldest president on day 100! Oldest president after one year in office! Oldest ....)
We are about 15 months into Trump's 48 month term. If you think that he's not mentally sharp now .... give him another 32 months.
The following poll numbers shared by Heather Cox Richardson
04 May 2026
Subcontracting Texting to an Unemployed Fortune Cookie Author
Reality as a Stage Set
As a child, J. G. Ballard lived in affluence in an enclave of ex-pats in Shanghai, a world of large villas, tennis courts and country clubs. When the Japanese invaded, all of that was disrupted and he eventually found himself in an interment camp, his life suddenly impoverished and his safety uncertain. (Among other traumas, he witnessed bored Japanese soldiers cruelly beat a Chinese rickshaw driver to death.)
J. G. Ballard said that one of the things that the end of his childhood taught him is that reality is a stage set that can be dismantled at any moment.
Technology and Problems
Kentucky Derby - Stretching the Limit of Attention Spans
He was a busy man, and he admired athletes who didn't drag out their performance.
03 May 2026
The Soviet Union on the Eve of the Nazi Invasion
"The Red Army in 1941 was the largest in the world. In tanks it outnumbered and in planes it equaled the the rest of the world's armies put together."
"For every 100 Russian prisoners, only 3 were to remain alive."
"In just the first 3 months of war with Germany, the Russians lost more than 3 million men."
The World at War Documentary (1973)
01 May 2026
The Moon Even Makes The Rocks Beneath Your Feet Rise and Fall
Happy Labor Day!
The typical workweek then was 60 to 84 hours. (Where did they find the time to strike, right?)
How much longer did it take to get to a 40-hour workweek? About half a century. The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 initially capped the workweek at 44 hours; an amendment two years later brought it down to 40.
So, be patient. Keep pushing for change. Your grandchildren will thank you. Or would, if they did not assume that what they experience as normal had always been the case.
30 April 2026
Would Your Grandma Call This Progress?
On the way out — it was another balmy day — we passed two men in their sixties walking in t-shirts and shorts, as if they had just come from the gym.
I love how much progress we have made over the generations. But I could easily imagine our grandmothers exclaiming over the prices, the music, and grown men dressed in public as if they were schoolboys.
"These prices are outrageous! This music is obnoxious! The way people dress! You poor things, you live in a hellscape."
It would be hard to convince them that this was progress. I am not sure I would even try.
Demis Hassabis on How Far Ahead You Want to Be
- Demis Hassabis,
winner of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work on AlphaFold to predict protein structures and Co-Founder and CEO of Google DeepMind
29 April 2026
Fed Chair Powell's legacy may be calmly navigating crazy times
Today was Jerome Powell's last press conference as Fed Chair. He has a few more weeks to serve as chair, after which he'll step down to a place on the Fed committee. No previous Fed Chair has stayed on the committee but Powell feels that until the Trump administration's legal charges against him are completely removed, he is safer on the Federal Reserve Board. Powell - and every reasonable economist - is still arguing for Fed Independence, something Trump is eager to compromise for the sake of short-term economic stimulus (the cost of which would be long-term inflation).
Powell had some weird events to navigate. The most obvious being COVID and then Trump and his tariffs and then of course Trump's attacks on Powell in the form of criminal charges against Powell - another first for any president by Trump and his boys.
Powell's term coincided with the most tumultuous economy in modern times, largely thanks to COVID. The jump in unemployment from 3.5% in February 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020 was a 10.3 percentage point increase in two months, which has no precedent in the seventy-plus years of modern data collection. (The number of the unemployed surged to 23.1 million, a jump of 15.9 million in a month.)
Inflation, too, was wildly volatile - going from roughly 2% to nearly 0% before spiking to 9% during the peak of the COVID stimulus and supply chain shocks. It is still more than 3%. (Had Trump not imposed tariffs and then invaded Iran, inflation would have likely hit 2% or lower by now.)
Finally, here are two tables. One shows numbers at the start and end of his time as Fed Chair. The other shows the dramatic extremes during his time as Fed Chair. It was a crazy time for the economy and Powell likely navigated this as calmly as anyone might have. And that calming influence during serious stress tests might be his most important legacy.
28 April 2026
The World Belongs to Optimists
- The Economist, capturing the philosophy of recently deceased emerging markets investor Mark Mobius
We Stand United King Charles Claims
Commentary: To be fair, both countries do have the word in their names.
Roger Bacon and the Worst Kind of Ignorance
That is, men ignorant of how ignorant they are fight to protect that ignorance from any perceived attack or real change.
27 April 2026
From Impersonal Bureaucracy to the Politics of Theater
GoFundMe operates on a different theory of justice. You receive help if you can make the proper appeal, hold attention, move strangers. If you cannot perform — or will not — you do not get help. The illness is the same. The capacity to win an audience is what changes the outcome.
The Information Economy requires us to perform. To get attention. To provoke emotions. To compete on the stage of politics as theater.
FDR and LBJ's bureaucracies were impersonal but reliable. Those generations did not have to perform. They were citizens, and citizenship was enough. Now you have to be more than a citizen. You have to be a story worth telling.
What Makes Us All the Same? The Fact That We're All Different
26 April 2026
Harry Frankfurt and the Desires We Have (and the Desires That Have Us)
A Theory About Conspiracy Theories
25 April 2026
22 April 2026
The Odds of Fame and Friendship
"Well, not everyone we hear of is famous. Most are friends."
Pause.
"Well, that wildly skews our sense of how friendly people are. 99.9999% of people don't even know we exist."
21 April 2026
The Economist Forecasts Probable Democratic Win of House in 2026 Election
The Economist’s new statistical forecast of the 2026 Congressional elections gives Democrats a whopping 95% chance of gaining at least the three seats needed to flip the 435-seat lower house. More surprisingly, despite a Senate map that looks nearly impregnable on paper, the model estimates that the party has a 46% probability of taking over the upper chamber as well.
Information More Important Than Government?
Perhaps that's unsurprising from a man whose personal library became the founding collection of the rebuilt Library of Congress. A man of books understood that if you had to choose between information about the world and a government to govern it, information would do more to shape how people actually lived.
A man who deplored the press still trusted it more than he trusted power.
(Quotes from John P. Kaminski's The Quotable Jefferson.)
20 April 2026
US GDP and Wealth of Top 0.1%
19 April 2026
The Possible Revival of Defenestration
It leaves me wondering why we traded this for memes and marches.
Artificial Intelligence - Created to Navigate the Information Economy
The intelligence in our heads is no longer enough to process all this. We are now manufacturing artificial intelligence to handle the sprawl — the gigabytes of noise and narrative the Information Economy produces faster than any human mind can sort.
In The Lincoln Lawyer, a character delivers the line: "Whoever controls the media controls the mind." A companion asks, "Did you just quote Stalin?" "Um," she replies. "Jim Morrison."
The exchange is funny because both answers are almost right. Stalin didn't say it, but the regime he built behaved as if he had. Morrison did say it — around 1969 — but variations were already circulating for more than a decade before he used it. In 1961, a Baptist editor named E. S. James told the Southern Baptist Convention that "those who control the media of communication will ultimately control the minds of the people." And a 1967 newspaper advertisement in Ohio declared that "our country is run by men who control our wealth; who control our news media and thus control our minds."
Just as Americans once staked claims on a continent, a host of interest groups now stake claims on attention — defining terms, controlling narratives, racing to plant their flag in your mind before someone else does. Advertising, marketing, politics, investor sentiment: in every one of them, the good things go to whoever captures your attention first.
Attention: the last zero-sum domain.
So what do we do in a world with this much information — most of it made rather than found? We make intelligence to match.
Natural intelligence evolved to navigate the natural world. Artificial intelligence is built to navigate the worlds we've built — machinery and code, social norms and institutions.
Archimedes said: give me a lever long enough, and I can move the world. Artificial intelligence is that lever — not for moving the physical world, but for moving the ones we've built inside it: the private worlds of our imaginations, the shared worlds of our institutions.
18 April 2026
Wake Up Call
Hotel desk clerk: Oh, people still need a wake-up call. They just don't think to ask for one anymore - which suggests they're now at least two calls away from self-awareness.
The Strange Debate About God and Presidents That Persists
17 April 2026
The Unexpected Consequence of Great Advances in Self-Driving Technology
I wonder if there's a catch.
We have family we love 200 miles north of us through thick traffic in LA and Orange counties. The stress of driving through those often congested areas is as big an obstacle to simply jumping in the car to visit them as is the time. But what about a world in which the stress isn't any greater than sitting at home in your living room? How many more trips will people suddenly be willing to make?
Yes, the cars will drive more efficiently — but there could be vastly more of them.
A prediction: the great advances in self-driving technology could create record congestion until we get to the next level of autonomous cars when they communicate and coordinate with each other in ways that enable them to drive faster and closer together than they ever could in situations in which traffic depends on human skill.
JD Vance Told Hungarians What God Wants for Their Future
"Then, my friends, go to the polls in the weekend. Stand with Viktor Orbán, because he stands for you, and he stands for all these things".
The level of hubris with this former Hill Billy. Trump, Vance and the corrupt Orban's politics focuses on personal enrichment while claiming that this is God's will. To be fair, it is a centuries old scam, variants of which sound something like "God wants you to give me power and wealth. Please don't disappoint God"
We Have Reasonable Expectations
$600 Billion Gain In Net Worth From a Year Ago for 10 Richest Americans
16 April 2026
An Economic Stat Perhaps Deserving of a Short Story
Possibly related: small Baca County, Colorado had the lowest GDP growth of any American county — its GDP shrinking 46%.
Perhaps someone with a thriving online business simply moved from Baca to Carter County.
Information on GDP growth by county here:
https://apps.bea.gov/itable/index.html?appid=70&stepnum=40&Major_Area=4&State=XX&Area=XX&TableId=533&Statistic=1&Year=2024&YearBegin=-1&Year_End=-1&Unit_Of_Measure=PercentChange&Rank=1&Drill=1&nRange=5
15 April 2026
Daryl Morey and 76ers Play-In Game Against Orlando Magic
Cut to scene.
Mr. Miyagi: are you ready for your test?
Daryl: Yes. What is the first test of our statistical models?
Mr. Miyagi: Magic.
Daryl: WHAT!?!
Mr. Miyagi: What are the odds, right?
Daryl: ...I can calculate that, actually.
Cheering for Daryl and the 76ers in their play-in game today against the Orlando Magic.
JD Vance - Catholic Since 2019 - Is Already Offering Advice to the Pope on How to Be a Better Catholic
This week, JD Vance - whose Catholicism is younger than an altar boy - offered advice to the Pope on how to be a better Catholic.
And to think that some of you questioned whether he is ready to follow Trump as president.
14 April 2026
Refugees Admitted to the US Since Trump Took Office
4,496 of these refugees were from South Africa (specifically white Afrikaners, based on the administration's policy).
Hmm.
13 April 2026
How Busy am I?
An End to Orban's Illiberal Democracy in Hungary
The liberal—as in free—means that regardless of who wins, minorities (and even majorities, you know, like women) retain their rights.
Viktor Orbán once described his government in Hungary as an “illiberal democracy.” And that is the model JD Vance has publicly praised and traveled last week to Hungary to support.
Trump Derangement Syndrome
The term Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) that the MAGA crowd coined to dismiss outrage about Trump ... will in the future describe the odd blend of narcissism, delusion and impulsivity that defines Trump's personality. It will morph from a slur aimed at his foes to a psychological condition that describes people like him.
11 April 2026
Did You Say Communist?
The Strongman Trap
Institutions do something similar for societies. They are the plot device a people use to maintain coherence across generations — smoothing over the discontinuities, giving strangers a shared script, making it possible to wake up each morning into a world that feels, if not familiar, at least navigable. The Constitution, the local school, the company you work for, the church you attend or don't — these are the narrative scaffolding that lets a society of 335 million people function as though it were one story rather than millions of unrelated ones.
When institutions decay, people are showing up to a world that feels unfamiliar — and it is overwhelming. The anger in the country right now is partly the anger of people whose plot device broke. The story they were using to make sense of their lives — the job, the church, the party, the neighborhood — stopped working, and they're left with the raw, unnarrated experience of change. That's what strongmen exploit. They offer a simpler story.
The promise is seductive. The record is dismal. Consider the Korean peninsula: divided since 1948, sharing race, culture, and language. One side crushed its institutions under dictatorship; the other nurtured them under democracy. Today, the average South Korean produces in a couple of weeks what a North Korean produces in a year. Twenty percent of Russians still lack indoor plumbing; the country has defaulted on every 30-year bond it has ever issued. Strongmen capture attention but destroy prosperity. Strong institutions may be boring, but they are the only way complex societies thrive. Trump is a symptom of this institutional recession — and a warning of what happens when people lose faith in the institutions that have done so much to define this country and enable its progress.
The strongman's simpler story always has the same ending. Given a choice between a strongman atop weak institutions, or modest leaders within reliable, democratic institutions, bet on institutions every time.
10 April 2026
JD Vance's Support for Hungarian Leader Orban Backfires
Orban fell in the polls after Vance's rally for him.
09 April 2026
If You Build It, They ....
- Jensen Huang, Nvidia co-founder and CEO
08 April 2026
Today's Horoscope ... Sort of
07 April 2026
Three Possible Outcomes of Trump's Madness
1. Trump's madness takes him - and his staff - down.
2. Trump's madness takes down the GOP - essentially making it a pariah party for a generation.
3. Trump's madness takes down the US, relegating it to a second-rate economy and country for a generation.
And how would you split 100% probability between these three and some other alternative or set of alternatives? It feels to me like the third scenario has a 10 to 20% chance.
MAGA Core Principles
- never vote for women,
- deport brown people,
- drop bombs on Muslims,
- cut subsidies to the poor while enriching the Trump family.
What am I missing?
Travel Notes from 2010 London - What I’ve noticed about England
London is Europe’s biggest city, with 6 million people. At any given instant, 11.4 million of them are on busses or subway cars. Brits are, as near as I can tell, chronically discontent, seemingly unhappy where they are and constantly on the move to somewhere else in the city.
I just assumed that Ricky Gervais’s success was at least in part due to his comedic looks. As it turns out, he doesn’t have comedic looks. He’s just British.
Just living in England would be the equivalent of 18 units of history. You can’t escape history any more than you can escape the rain.
The British Library was amazing. We got to see two Bibles from the 300s; the Magna Carta (in various versions); diary entries by Lewis Carroll about meeting Alice and then agreeing to write down the fairy tale (Alice Underground? Or Alice in Elfland?) for her after having told it to her; an untitled song lyric by the irreverent and disenchanted teen John Lennon; a handwritten speech by Freud; and a letter from Darwin apologizing to a religious friend for how upset he was made when reading the draft of his Origin of Species. I was so delighted by the special treasures room that contained all this that I wanted to experience the library more. It turns out, though, that a person needs a reading pass to get into the reading rooms. One can’t just saunter into the racks to see what they have. So, I went into the room where passes are (rather reluctantly as it turns out) granted. What follows is an only slightly exaggerated version of the conversation between me and the man who grants a pass to the reading rooms.
“What do you want to research?”
“I want to go to the social sciences room to read economic books,” I said, pleased that I could think this fast and actually come up with something that struck me as incredibly specific.
“Do you have the title of the work you want to read?”
“What?”
“You’ll have to write down the title you would like to see. And then we’ll think about giving you a reading pass.” With that, he hands me a form to fill out and points me over to their computer terminals linked to their catalog.
“What if I don’t know yet what titles I want to read?”
“You can’t ask for something to read unless you know what it is.”
“Well how would I know what it is if I haven’t yet read it?”
“Don’t be dense.”
Suffice it to say that I did not get into the reading rooms but I have to imagine that it was conversations with British bureaucrats like this that inspired so many of Lewis Carroll’s daft exchanges between Alice and the odd characters she encountered.
Any two items in the British Museum would be enough to make the reputation of a single museum in the States. It’s just an embarrassment of riches – from Rosetta Stone to wonderfully well preserved statutes from 3, 4, and 5 thousand years ago.
I loved Oxford. It’s is wonderfully British. John Locke went to school here, which basically means that if none of the other students learned a thing, whatever the British have invested in Oxford for the last few centuries has more than paid off.
Oxford University owns Oxford Street in London and leases to the many shops along its route (one of best shopping areas). This should mean that Oxford could afford to provide an Oxford-like education to every child north of London.
We stayed in the McDonald Randolph hotel in Oxford. Sandi counted 18 changes in height or direction on the way from reception to our room. It was comical. Imagine that Oxford student Charles Dodgson (as we insiders refer to the man who wrote as Lewis Carroll) had collaborated with the architect for the Winchester Mystery House and you get some idea of its layout.
I have to wonder if the Brits exploration and conquest of the world wasn’t just a search for better-tasting food. It’s not that their food is inadequate. It is, in fact, adequate. Just. But it’s hard to believe that it would hold one’s attention for more than five days, much less five centuries and might be one of the big reasons that they held onto India for so long.
Of course it might just have been the promise of warmer weather that was enough to drive the Brits into ships. It’s wet and cold here. Well, to be fair sometimes it is just cold.
The average Brit seems both shorter and more polite than the average American. Or perhaps they’re just polite to taller Americans.
Our guide around Oxford shared interesting tips like the origin of the term "eaves dropping" (listening to a conversation from an upper story that “dropped” down the eaves) and the fact that there is no difference in wines past the price of £10 because the only purpose of wine is to get a young woman into the arms of a young man or to remind an old man of when he once held a young woman. We subsidized an older man for an hour to opine away as if he were talking back to the TV.
Oxford could be where JK Rowling got the model for Hogwarts. Apparently the Japanese come by the millions to England to pay homage to the other Island Empire and come to Oxford to pay homage to Harry Potter, where scenes from the movie were filmed.
Down the block from our hotel was a thousand year old tower, the oldest building in Oxford. This makes it four times as old as our country, albeit considerably smaller.
It wasn’t just English culture we’ve been exposed to. We grabbed a drink at a little Scottish restaurant - McDonald’s.
We ate a pub where future prime ministers once ate. Or so I assume. The pub was on the river very close to Christ Church, the college at Oxford that’s graduated about a dozen Prime Ministers in the last couple of centuries.
06 April 2026
The Five Americas of New Politics for the Next Economy
American political history looks messy up close. Zoom out and a pattern emerges.
From Jefferson to Lincoln, Democrats dominated — organizing the country around land, expanding the nation's territory threefold, building an economy of farmers and settlers. From Lincoln to FDR, Republicans dominated — organizing around capital, building railroads and factories, transforming raw materials into industrial wealth. From FDR to Reagan, Democrats dominated again — organizing around labor, creating full employment, then expanding who got to participate in the economy through education, civil rights, and inclusion.
In each era, one party identified the defining resource of its time, built institutions to unlock it, and governed for a generation.
Since Reagan, neither party has dominated. Power has split, and the focus has shifted from material problems - land, capital, labor - to cultural ones. Government has become less the architect of great national projects and more the arena for tribal conflict.
That pattern is not an accident. It is a consequence of how parties – and Americans – have thought about their economy and progress. A fifth America is possible.
05 April 2026
Truly Confusing Basketball Tattoo
President Trump's Bizarre Easter Message 2026
04 April 2026
How To Cut Your Odds of Dying in the Next Year in Half
Why Are We Going Back to the Moon?
When Mental Illness Becomes Policy
1. This man is a political genius, or
2. This man is godly,
You may not understand politics, religion, or mental illness.
03 April 2026
01 April 2026
John Wick 21
2053 — John Wick 21. It's just Keanu Reeves in a motorized wheelchair with a Gatling gun. He spins for 45 minutes, continuously firing, achieving his highest body count yet — with mumbled, vague assurances that at least some of them had it coming.
Perhaps.
Post Information Economy Emergent Potential
We were single-celled organisms — and entirely new possibilities emerged when that reality evolved into multicellular life. We were little tribes — and entirely new possibilities emerged with the rise of nation-states. I still don't think we properly appreciate what new realities have yet to unfold from the emergence of the internet, which literally opens up the possibility of collaboration between anyone, anywhere, with anyone else.
Things like nationalism are pushbacks against this move toward global coordination — but that resistance is likely temporary.
The potential here defies any reasonable calculation. It's as if single-celled organisms were trying to predict what multicellular life would become.
Random Walk Theory Paradox
Me: What?
Abendroth:. The idea behind the the random walk theory is that everything we know about a stock is reflected in today's price ... so the only thing that can change that price is new information which we don't yet know. Stocks will randomly move - or walk - up or down, by a lot or by a little, based only on that new information.
Me: So you're saying that even conspiracy theories are as effective as financial analysis?
Abendroth: No. I'm saying that in finance, they are all conspiracy theories. Even the random walk theory.
After a long pause.
Me: So you're saying that the random walk theory could be true if it is false but must be false if it is true?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: Because the random walk theory suggests that any theories about the stock market - including the random walk theory - are nonsensical?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: That sort of makes sense.
Abendroth: But mostly doesn't.
Me: Did Lewis Carrol manage an investment fund?
Abendroth: Why do you think the Rabbit was so smartly dressed? He was the fund manager.
31 March 2026
Americans Do Not Like Trump
The Deep Roots of Wealth Distribution
29 March 2026
Favorite William James' Quotes
“My first act of free will shall be to believe in free will.”
“Truth happens to an idea. It becomes true, is made true by events.”
"The faculty of voluntarily bringing back a wandering attention, over and over again, is the very root of judgment, character, and will."
“The world is a pluralism, not a universe.”
"All our life, so far as it has definite form, is but a mass of habits — practical, emotional, and intellectual — systematically organized for our weal or woe, and bearing us irresistibly toward our destiny."
“If this life be not a real fight, in which something is eternally gained for the universe by success, it is no better than a game of private theatricals.”
“The moral test of a civilization is how it treats its weakest members.”
“Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.”
“Believe that life is worth living, and your belief will help create the fact.”
"The greatest revolution of our generation is the discovery that human beings, by changing the inner attitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives."
"The greatest use of a life is to spend it on something that will outlast it."
27 March 2026
Economic Market Data for No Kings Protest March 2026
The two most defining markets for how Americans judge any administration are the stock market and labor markets. Not only is Trump engaged in self-enrichment at a scale never before witnessed by any American president but the performance of these two markets is miserable under his presidency.
This first graph shows the average monthly job creation rate for each president since Jimmy Carter. In this you can see that only Trump's previous term and George W. Bush's administration presided over worse job markets.
26 March 2026
Action Figure
Stock Market Movement
The NASDAQ is down 6.66% YTD.
Investors agree on the number. They just have very different ideas about what happens next.
The Yin, the Yang, and the Dow.
Dow. Such a precarious index. Just one key stroke away from down.
24 March 2026
Victor Hugo on an Idea Whose Time Has Come
Historian Barbara Fields On Frustration with Congress and Reality
- Historian Barbara Fields from Columbia University in Ken Burns' documentary, Congress
Dictatorship remains alluring even to people who should know better because it is so much less complicated than democracy — with all its debates and divisions. But reality, too, is complicated. The desire for a strong leader stems from fantasizing that reality could be as simple as our opinions of it. Democracy is messy, contentious, and frustrating in no small part because reality is.
One Way Jensen Huang's Token Economy Will Accelerate the Emergence of the Entrepreneurial Economy
Huey Long - Smartest Lunatic Ever
23 March 2026
Money Saving Tip
Here's a money-saving tip. Next time you see an ad for an enticing product, just re-enact the ad. Skip the product altogether and go straight for the joy the product delivers.
"Should we go shopping?"
"No. Just smile more."
22 March 2026
The Barber's Poll
He offered two things he's hearing about frequently. The Iranian war. Apparently it makes no sense to anyone who mentions it. And the job market. People cannot find work.
Not exactly the equivalent of a poll but ... it is something. And makes me think that perhaps there should be an informal poll taken of barbers and manicurists to get their sense of what is on Americans' minds.
21 March 2026
The Rise and Fall of Civilizations
20 March 2026
19 March 2026
Jensen Huang's Token Economy and Possible Consequences
The Broader Economic Flow
Perceived demand: A customer wants something — a product, an answer, a service, a piece of code, a diagnosis.
AI as coordinator: Rather than a human routing that request through an organization, AI interprets it, matches it to available resources, capacity, inventory, or knowledge, and either fulfills it directly or orchestrates the humans and systems that will.
Production or retrieval: AI either generates the output itself (a document, an image, an analysis) or directs physical or human systems to produce it.
Delivery and feedback: The customer receives and responds; AI captures that signal and refines future responses.
Where precisely does AI fit?
Everywhere in that chain except the underlying human desire that starts it and the physical reality that ends it. The want is still human. The product — a meal, a drug, a manufactured part — still has to exist in the world. But everything in between — interpretation, routing, coordination, generation, quality checking, personalization — is increasingly where AI lives.
Huang's insight is that this middle layer, which used to be mostly human labor and organizational overhead, is becoming a token stream. And Nvidia sells the engines that run it.
The human layer: Perceived desire on one end, satisfied (or disappointed) desire on the other. This is where meaning lives. A person wants something; a person receives something; a person feels the gap or the fulfillment. Irreducibly human.
The coordination layer: Everything in between. Interpretation, routing, production, delivery, feedback. This is the token economy — the vast, accelerating machinery of turning want into have. AI doesn't create desire and doesn't feel satisfaction. It lives entirely in this middle space, and it is transforming that space almost beyond recognition.
This framing implicitly raises a key question about AI's limits: it can compress and optimize the coordination layer almost without bound, but it cannot manufacture desire at one end or genuine satisfaction at the other. Those remain stubbornly, essentially human.
Which may be why the most enduring economic question in an AI-saturated world isn't about efficiency — it's about what people will actually want when the cost of coordination approaches zero.
So where does desire - the catalyst for all this - originate?
Advertising and marketing have always been in the business of manufacturing or shaping desire — making you want something you didn't know you wanted, or want it more urgently than you otherwise would have. AI doesn't invent that dynamic, but it could perfect it in ways that are qualitatively different from a Super Bowl ad or even targeted Facebook posts.
The concerning version: AI that knows you well enough — from your behavior, your language, your rhythms — to identify latent desires before you've consciously formed them, nudge them into felt wants, coordinate production to meet them, deliver them, and close the loop. All without meaningful human involvement at any stage.
At that point the two bookends to this process — perceived desire and realized desire — are no longer quite as "irreducibly human" one might suspect. They're still experienced by humans, but they may be increasingly manufactured and managed by AI.
Which raises a question that is less economic than philosophical: if the desire was seeded, the product generated, and the satisfaction engineered — what exactly was the human contributing? The experiencing of it, perhaps. Consciousness as the last remaining irreducibly human input.
One troubling possibility in this? We're no longer steering this vehicle, this economy ... we're just riding in the Ferris Wheel of desire and desire fulfillment. This has the potential to move us from life as a Jungian search for meaning into a life of Skinner's stimulus and response.
Jensen on the token economy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU_TIDaixqM
18 March 2026
Fed Chair Powell Talks to A Startling First in our Nation's History of Job Growth
For the first time in 250 years, the number of jobs we need to create to keep up with growth in the labor force is zero. None.
This reflects two converging trends. First, the birthrate and retirement rate have been drawing closer together over the last two decades, shrinking the growth in the number of new workers. Second, between deportations and the slowdown in immigration, the labor force is no longer growing the way it has for 250 years.
Tesla Over-priced, Nvidia Under-priced
Nvidia 37
Tesla 370
17 March 2026
Obsessed About Time Travel
If only he had a —
Believing Impossible Things
Relationships are Like Tennis
16 March 2026
Time Travel First, Direction Next
I only wish I had come up with the idea earlier.
Instead of a Fortune Cookie Slip ...
He shouted across the restaurant, holding up the offending fortune cookie slip.
“What’s wrong?” the waiter asked, rushing over with genuine concern.
“Who prints this kind of thing on a fortune cookie?”
The waiter snatched the slip, read it, and promptly blushed.
“Oh no. I’m terribly sorry, sir. You’ve received one of our… Freudian slips by mistake.”
"How does this happen?"
"Well, the typical explanation is that it expresses something you scarcely admit to yourself. It may reveal deeper ..."
"I didn't ask for after-dinner therapy!"
"Does this mean that you won't be giving me a tip, sir?"
Diner looks aghast. "You do know this isn't helping."
Waiter reads the Freudian slip again, blushes and says, "Quite right, sir. I can see how my question just made things worse."
The Republican Party's Notions of What Government Can Do
15 March 2026
Names for Money
Dollar is slang for a Federal Reserve Note.
A buck is slang for a dollar.
Moola is slang for a buck.
Filthy lucre is the point at which slang tips into cursing.
A Multi-Faith T-Shirt
12 March 2026
Francis Fukuyama on the War Against Iran
"The Trump administration is behaving as if it were born yesterday, innocent of the accumulated understanding of regional politics, and the sources of earlier American policy failures. Indeed, it has expressed contempt for experts coming out of the administration and has excluded them. ... Instead it has relied on a sycophantic circle of loyalists, none of whom are likely to give the president reliable or realistic assessments about how to move forward. Consequently, the administration is making it up from day to day. ... The world has become a most dangerous place because the world has come under the power of a 10 year old boy."
Stock Market Performance Under Recent Presidents
Well, at least the MAGA boys can console themselves by the fact that their boy is doing better than Carter or Bush 2.
So far.
Self Publishing in Multiple Locations
The bad news is that it was picked up by a fortune cookie company.
His "book" was released in serial form — installments distributed across different restaurants, on different days, in different cities, in no particular order. Fittingly, it was a book on the power of networking, and recipients were encouraged to find each other and piece together what they'd learned. Of course, since those instructions were also released in random installments, it took quite some time before anyone knew this.
He took some comfort in the fact that his latest book had, technically, sold millions of copies. The five-star reviews were cryptic but numerous and often included references to bok choy, noodles and dim sum.
09 March 2026
On Mongrels and America
— Angus Calder
Merle Oberon (1911–1979) was a glamorous Hollywood and British film star of the 1930s and 1940s, born in Bombay to a mixed South Asian and European family. In the racial climate of early Hollywood, this background would likely have ended her career before it began.
So her studio invented a different woman entirely. Born in Tasmania, they said. European parents. Clean, simple, acceptable.
She spent decades performing two roles: the characters onscreen, and the invented self she wore everywhere else. Even close colleagues had no idea. The concealment was total, and it held.
Alexander Pushkin (1799–1837) is widely considered the founder of modern Russian literature — the writer who gave the Russian language its modern form, who shaped what Russians understood themselves to be. His great-grandfather, Abram Petrovich Gannibal, was an African child, likely from what is now Cameroon or Eritrea, brought to Europe as a slave, then adopted and educated at the court of Peter the Great, eventually becoming a military engineer and general. That ancestry runs directly into Pushkin, into the poems and stories that Russia called its own.
The nation's purest cultural touchstone. Mixed all the way down.
This is what Calder is pointing at: the things a culture holds up as essentially, irreducibly itself — its founding literature, its iconic faces — are rarely what they appear to be. Purity is almost always a retrospective fiction. The real thing, the living creative thing, tends to be a collision. Part this, part that, and then whatever strange third thing emerges from the two meeting.
Rock and roll is the American version of this story. It came from the collision of country and blues — the whitest and the blackest streams in American music running together until something neither tradition could have produced on its own came out the other side. Still restless. Still unfinished. Still, somehow, arresting.
That's America, really. Not pure. Never pure. Just the ongoing collision — of people, genes, languages, sounds, habits and tics from everywhere — producing something that keeps mutating and hasn't settled yet.
Calder called it our common lot. It might also be our best quality.
08 March 2026
Odd Thoughts on a Sunday
- Dolly Parton
*****
The first priority on your to do list should be doing what no one else can, doing the tasks that uniquely define you - and are uniquely defined by you.
*****
Conspiracy theories are just screenplays that writers couldn't get turned into a movie. They're fiction, but they're not particularly good fiction.
*****
"My job is to, quite simply, create the conditions whereby you [the employee] can do your life's work."
- Jensen Huang, CEO and co-founder of NVDIA, now the world's most valuable company
****
Possible futures:
In the future, AI will present all clothing ads to you as you in that clothing. Previously, there was confusion between how good the clothes look on beautiful, handsome models and how good they look on you. Once that confusion is behind us, clothing sales will plummet. One might think this is incentive enough not to run such ads but it'll increase the online population as people choose to stay virtual rather than step outside to be seen as their less than ideal selves.
06 March 2026
Labor and Financial Markets Roughly One Year Into Trump's Second Term - Not Impressive
I'm sure it's all just a coincidence. Or misunderstanding.
04 March 2026
Stochastic Parrots and Politicians - Kensy Cooperrider's Conversation with Melanie Mitchell on How Metaphors for AI Might Shape Its Direction
Essentially, this metaphor suggests that AI doesn't really have any model of reality but instead is simply choosing what word to generate next based on probabilities found in texts it has (to use another metaphor) digested.
I think it's fascinating and couldn't help but wonder - for a brief moment - whether Trump - who seems so disconnected from the real world and consequences - might be thought of as a stochastic politician. But I digress.
Kensy's latest episode on "7 metaphors for AI" can be found here:
https://disi.org/seven-metaphors-for-ai/
02 March 2026
If You Could Time Travel Only Once, Would You?
Do you do it? And wherever you'd land, which time would you choose?
I would -- as I am nearing the end of life -- choose to travel 100 years into the future. Worst case, I get to see what life is like then and die shortly afterward, as I was going to. Best case, life is enormously better and they chuckle that I was about to die from such trivial causes and extend my life by another 30 years in a new, strange time.
What about you?
27 February 2026
Corporate Culture, Conference Rooms, and a Curious Juke Box
My first instinct was to think they'd comically misconstrued the consultant's advice about culture. It took me some time to realize that what they had done might have actually been genius.
No other corporate boardroom had a juke box. When meetings bogged down, when conversations went awry, when tempers flared -- someone would wander over to the juke box, scan the song titles, and pick a song that took them out of themselves for a short while. It changed the mood and then the perspective. And almost inevitably redirected the conversation into a more helpful direction.
Juke box management. Three minutes to change the mood and focus.
The sequel - juice box management - is tailored to preschools.