01 August 2014

The Lazy Days of Summer

July job numbers were up 209,000, less than the 230,000 folks were estimating. There are a few things of interest about this number.

1. Since 1939, there has been only one uninterrupted streak of monthly job creation that has lasted longer. It's now been 46 months in a row of net positive job creation. In two months, the current streak will be tied for longest ever uninterrupted streak.

2. And speaking of streaks, the economy has now created more than 200,000 jobs for six months in a row. That makes it the longest streak of 200k+ since 1997.

3. The average monthly job creation so far this year is 230,000. Assuming that average holds, it would mean 2.7 million jobs for 2014, which would make this the best year for job creation since 1999. We may finally be leaving the naughts (2000 to 2009) behind.

4. There are some folks who feel this 209,000, a drop from the last three months, hints at a cooling down of the economy. It might, instead, simply suggest reflect a deeper pattern that has to do with the lazy days of summer. During the last five years, July and August have been the slowest months for job creation. (And April and May are the busiest months.) July is down a tad from the previous months but it is down less than typical. (The average fluctuation throughout the last five years is shown below.)

Simply put, there is nothing to suggest that this recovery is faltering. Not yet.

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