06 December 2014

In Which Your Blog Author Manages to Turn a Big Stock Market Prediction into a Very Small Gain

Here is the prediction I blogged about the stock market.
"The S&P 500 is up only 1.4% from the start of the year. ...
I'd look for a sharp rise in the market before year end. I think between now and December 31, the market could easily rise 5% or more. The result will be a fairly unimpressive year but it will have gotten there in spectacularly volatile fashion."

I predicted a rise of 5% or more and the S&P is up 10.7%. I'd like to file that under accurate prediction but of course the market could still fall spectacularly before 2015, so let's mark that as tentative. 

Here is the prediction I tweeted about job numbers. 
Job report for October (released 7 Nov) will be for over 300,000 new jobs."

I jumped the gun on this one. Even with Friday's upward adjustment to the numbers, it looks like the economy created only 243,000 jobs for October. It didn't break 300,000 until November. So, that's a miss on timing.

Finally, in spite of getting the market prediction right, my own portfolio limped along in that time. The S&P is up 10% since I made my stock market prediction and my portfolio is up just 2%. Pretty pathetic. So that's a big miss.

My final score on predictions:
1 right (so far)
1 right about magnitude, wrong about timing
1 major miss in applying big insights into personal victories (the sort of thing that might have happened to me once or twice before).
So, 1 for 3. That sounds better in baseball.

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