25 January 2024

Economic Data on Jobs, S&P 500, GDP Growth and Deficits From Reagan Through Biden's Presidencies - Spot the Patterns

Spot the patterns.

It seems to me that there are 2.

1. Deficits grow under Republican presidents and shrink under Democratic presidents.
2. Job creation is stronger during Democratic presidencies.

These could be random but I doubt it.

Republican presidents consistently cut taxes. (Trump rather famously cut taxes by about a trillion - a cut that went disproportionately to the rich) Cutting taxes without cutting spending leads to deficits. That's not fancy philosophy. That's arithmetic. Deficits inevitably grow under Republican presidents because they have a clear plan for cutting taxes but no plan for cutting spending.

Job creation is stronger under Democratic presidents because they are the party that focuses more on labor and the job market in contrast to Republicans who focus more on capital markets. Keynesian economics is largely dismissed by Republican presidents and largely supported by data. Timely stimulus can help job markets to recover. And as importantly, unfettered or unregulated capital markets will invariably lead to booms and busts that are particularly tough for the labor market (which is to say, those people who depend on jobs and not wealth to support their living expenses).

Perhaps you can see other patterns. I'd be curious as to what those are.













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