28 January 2017

No More Wondering. Trump Will Do The Crazy Things He Promised

In his first week, Trump moved towards building a wall and banning Muslims from entry into the country. He's keeping his promises.

More than one Republican friend of mine has nonchalantly shrugged off Trump's crazier promises with, "He won't really do that." Now it's clear that he really will. And it's not at all clear that Republicans in Congress have the desire or ability to stop him.

What crazy things are next? Massive tax cuts that will trigger deficits back to nearly a trillion a year. (Last year's deficit was less than half that.) Tariffs that will trigger trade wars. And job protection bills that will not only inhibit companies from doing business freely but will erode our country's ability to compete.

I've been nearly frozen in my attempt to do the normal, annual forecast for the coming year's economic measures (e.g., S&P 500, job creation, etc.) because of the uncertainty surrounding everything Trump has promised. It no longer makes sense  to give Trump - or the Republicans around him - the benefit of the doubt, assuming that they understand the difference between crazy campaign promises and reasonable policies.

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