29 March 2026

Favorite William James' Quotes

Williams James (1842 - 1910) is one of my favorite Americans. Here are some quotes from him that might give you some idea of why.

“My first act of free will shall be to believe in free will.”

“Truth happens to an idea. It becomes true, is made true by events.”

"The faculty of voluntarily bringing back a wandering attention, over and over again, is the very root of judgment, character, and will."

“The world is a pluralism, not a universe.”

"All our life, so far as it has definite form, is but a mass of habits — practical, emotional, and intellectual — systematically organized for our weal or woe, and bearing us irresistibly toward our destiny."

“If this life be not a real fight, in which something is eternally gained for the universe by success, it is no better than a game of private theatricals.”

“The moral test of a civilization is how it treats its weakest members.”

“Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.”

“Believe that life is worth living, and your belief will help create the fact.”

"The greatest revolution of our generation is the discovery that human beings, by changing the inner attitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives."

"The greatest use of a life is to spend it on something that will outlast it."

27 March 2026

Economic Market Data for No Kings Protest March 2026

The two most defining markets for how Americans judge any administration are the stock market and labor markets. Not only is Trump engaged in self-enrichment at a scale never before witnessed by any American president but the performance of these two markets is miserable under his presidency.


This first graph shows the average monthly job creation rate for each president since Jimmy Carter. In this you can see that only Trump's previous term and George W. Bush's administration presided over worse job markets.


Stock market performance is - prior to market opening Monday morning 30 March 2026 - the worst of any president since George W. Bush's administration.





Trump's understanding of how the economy works is not just deeply flawed - it is demonstrably flawed. 

26 March 2026

Action Figure

As a little boy, he'd dreamed of becoming a superhero but Bobble head Bob's unfortunate condition became the inspiration for a very different kind of action figure.

Baseball is back.




Stock Market Movement

Every stock sale involves one person convinced this is a good time to sell and another convinced this is a good time to buy. Market equilibrium depends not just on differing opinions but perfectly opposing ones.

The NASDAQ is down 6.66% YTD.

Investors agree on the number. They just have very different ideas about what happens next.

The Yin, the Yang, and the Dow.




Dow. Such a precarious index. Just one key stroke away from down.

24 March 2026

Victor Hugo on an Idea Whose Time Has Come

"There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and that is an idea whose time has come," 
- French poet and novelist Victor Hugo.

Historian Barbara Fields On Frustration with Congress and Reality

"The criticism of Congress that says, in essence, Congress has a way of making situations complicated, of making it harder to do things of-- of making it impossible to move in a streamlined fashion. This is a way of saying that democracy is a pain in the neck, which, of course, it is. And that style of criticism of Congress is not so much a criticism of the individuals who are there now, many of whom deserve even more criticism than they have received so much as it is a criticism of the whole idea of a government by as well as for the people. And that is a criticism of democracy. I wonder whether the ideal of democracy lives in a real sense in our country today."

- Historian Barbara Fields from Columbia University in Ken Burns' documentary, Congress

Dictatorship remains alluring even to people who should know better because it is so much less complicated than democracy — with all its debates and divisions. But reality, too, is complicated. The desire for a strong leader stems from fantasizing that reality could be as simple as our opinions of it. Democracy is messy, contentious, and frustrating in no small part because reality is.

One Way Jensen Huang's Token Economy Will Accelerate the Emergence of the Entrepreneurial Economy

Jensen Huang predicts that his employees will have a salary (e.g., $300k) and a budget for tokens (e.g., $150k). These tokens will be used at the employees discretion to create programs, machines, processes and what - in my mind - is essentially a business.

At that point, on a scale from 1 to 10 where a 1 is an employee filling a clearly defined role and a 10 is an entrepreneur who might get financing from elsewhere but is launching a business ... we are entering a world in which the 1 to 10 score for the typical "employee" is steadily moving from 1 to 10 on the scale. Essentially morphing into a network of entrepreneurs rather than a pool of employees.

What Huang is describing dissolves one of the most fundamental distinctions in economic history — the one between labor and capital. The employee has always sold time and skill. The entrepreneur has always deployed capital to organize resources toward an opportunity. Those were different roles, different risk profiles, different relationships to the organization.

The token budget changes that equation structurally. The employee is no longer just selling time — they're deploying capital, making allocation decisions, building things that have a life beyond their individual effort. The line between "I work here" and "I'm building something here" starts to blur and then disappear.

The movement is unlikely to be gradual — it's likely to feel slow and then sudden, the way most threshold shifts do. A few early adopters figure out how to use token budgets entrepreneurially, produce dramatically outsized results, and then the organizational norm shifts rapidly toward expecting that. The employee who treats their token budget like an expense account rather than a venture fund will look as anachronistic as the secretary who refused to learn the word processor.

This will become a popular mechanism by which the entrepreneurial economy becomes universal rather than exceptional. Entrepreneurship stops being a personality type or a risk tolerance and becomes a basic competency — the way literacy did, the way numeracy did.

Which means the institution that figures out how to cultivate entrepreneurial judgment at scale — not just tolerate it in outliers — becomes the dominant institution of the next economy.

Huey Long - Smartest Lunatic Ever

When a fellow congressman told Louisianan Huey Long "You are the smartest lunatic I have ever seen in my whole life," Long took it as a compliment. Arthur Schlesinger said of Long, "He was a comedian, of sorts, but a comedian of sinister purposes."
From Ken Burns documentary on Huey Long.

23 March 2026

Money Saving Tip


Here's a money-saving tip. Next time you see an ad for an enticing product, just re-enact the ad. Skip the product altogether and go straight for the joy the product delivers.

"Should we go shopping?"
"No. Just smile more."

22 March 2026

The Barber's Poll

Talked to a friend of mine who is a barber and asked him what was the topic of conversation of late. He's a very easy going guy who doesn't volunteer his opinions much but is instead more inclined to listen.

He offered two things he's hearing about frequently. The Iranian war. Apparently it makes no sense to anyone who mentions it. And the job market. People cannot find work.

Not exactly the equivalent of a poll but ... it is something. And makes me think that perhaps there should be an informal poll taken of barbers and manicurists to get their sense of what is on Americans' minds.

21 March 2026

The Rise and Fall of Civilizations

The most dangerous internal contradiction any civilization can have isn't inequality or political conflict per se — it's the loss of the capacity to imagine and attempt its own transformation.

There is a crucial tension between learning how to live life as past generations have and learning to imagine life as only future generations can live it.

Tired, Wired

Tired: telephone.
Wired: teleporter.

19 March 2026

Jensen Huang's Token Economy and Possible Consequences

Jensen Huang - founder and CEO of Nvidia - has been speaking passionately about the token economy. He sees AI as fundamental to the future economy. Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world, in history. Just so you know where I'm coming from, I think Nvidia's value is going to rise dramatically over the next 5 years. One way to think of the token economy is this.

From Request to Token to Output

A user types a prompt. That text is broken into tokens — roughly, fragments of words — and fed into a model. The model, which is essentially a vast map of statistical relationships built from training data, predicts the next most likely token, then the next, then the next, until it produces a complete response. Nvidia's GPUs are the engines that make this prediction process fast enough to be useful at scale. This is what Huang means by the token economy — every inference (every AI response to every request) is a stream of tokens, and the world is generating an almost incomprehensible number of them.

The Broader Economic Flow

Perceived demand: A customer wants something — a product, an answer, a service, a piece of code, a diagnosis.
AI as coordinator: Rather than a human routing that request through an organization, AI interprets it, matches it to available resources, capacity, inventory, or knowledge, and either fulfills it directly or orchestrates the humans and systems that will.
Production or retrieval: AI either generates the output itself (a document, an image, an analysis) or directs physical or human systems to produce it.
Delivery and feedback: The customer receives and responds; AI captures that signal and refines future responses.

Where precisely does AI fit?
Everywhere in that chain except the underlying human desire that starts it and the physical reality that ends it. The want is still human. The product — a meal, a drug, a manufactured part — still has to exist in the world. But everything in between — interpretation, routing, coordination, generation, quality checking, personalization — is increasingly where AI lives.
Huang's insight is that this middle layer, which used to be mostly human labor and organizational overhead, is becoming a token stream. And Nvidia sells the engines that run it.

The human layer: Perceived desire on one end, satisfied (or disappointed) desire on the other. This is where meaning lives. A person wants something; a person receives something; a person feels the gap or the fulfillment. Irreducibly human.

The coordination layer: Everything in between. Interpretation, routing, production, delivery, feedback. This is the token economy — the vast, accelerating machinery of turning want into have. AI doesn't create desire and doesn't feel satisfaction. It lives entirely in this middle space, and it is transforming that space almost beyond recognition.

This framing implicitly raises a key question about AI's limits: it can compress and optimize the coordination layer almost without bound, but it cannot manufacture desire at one end or genuine satisfaction at the other. Those remain stubbornly, essentially human.

Which may be why the most enduring economic question in an AI-saturated world isn't about efficiency — it's about what people will actually want when the cost of coordination approaches zero.

So where does desire - the catalyst for all this - originate?

Advertising and marketing have always been in the business of manufacturing or shaping desire — making you want something you didn't know you wanted, or want it more urgently than you otherwise would have. AI doesn't invent that dynamic, but it could perfect it in ways that are qualitatively different from a Super Bowl ad or even targeted Facebook posts.

The concerning version: AI that knows you well enough — from your behavior, your language, your rhythms — to identify latent desires before you've consciously formed them, nudge them into felt wants, coordinate production to meet them, deliver them, and close the loop. All without meaningful human involvement at any stage.

At that point the two bookends to this process — perceived desire and realized desire — are no longer quite as "irreducibly human" one might suspect. They're still experienced by humans, but they may be increasingly manufactured and managed by AI.

Which raises a question that is less economic than philosophical: if the desire was seeded, the product generated, and the satisfaction engineered — what exactly was the human contributing? The experiencing of it, perhaps. Consciousness as the last remaining irreducibly human input.

That's not entirely new — culture and commerce have always shaped desire. But the scale, precision, and speed AI brings to that shaping is new enough that it might be a difference in kind rather than just degree.

One troubling possibility in this? We're no longer steering this vehicle, this economy ... we're just riding in the Ferris Wheel of desire and desire fulfillment. This has the potential to move us from life as a Jungian search for meaning into a life of Skinner's stimulus and response.

Jung's project was essentially about the human as meaning-maker — the psyche reaching toward individuation, toward a self that is authored rather than merely conditioned. The Ferris Wheel image captures something that feels like movement and experience, even pleasure, but has no destination and no agency. You didn't choose the arc. You're just on it.

Skinner's world, by contrast, has no self to author anything. Just organisms responding to stimuli, reinforced or extinguished by their environment. Desire and satisfaction as a loop, not a journey. Which is precisely what a perfectly optimized AI economy might produce — and, notably, would look like flourishing from the outside. People getting what they want, efficiently, continuously. The metrics would be excellent.

Jensen on the token economy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU_TIDaixqM

18 March 2026

Fed Chair Powell Talks to A Startling First in our Nation's History of Job Growth

"Effectively, there is a zero job creation equilibrium in the private sector — which we've never had in our nation's history." — Jerome Powell, today's press conference.

For the first time in 250 years, the number of jobs we need to create to keep up with growth in the labor force is zero. None.

This reflects two converging trends. First, the birthrate and retirement rate have been drawing closer together over the last two decades, shrinking the growth in the number of new workers. Second, between deportations and the slowdown in immigration, the labor force is no longer growing the way it has for 250 years.

Tesla Over-priced, Nvidia Under-priced

Price / Earnings Ratios:
Nvidia 37
Tesla 370

ONE of the initiatives within Nvidia is the application of AI to self-driving cars, and in terms of market potential for Nvidia that is likely much closer to 2% than 20% of their future revenues. And - in my opinion - promises to be more transformative as a technology and how broadly it can be applied. (Tesla is unlikely to license their self-driving technology to other automakers but Nvidia definitely will, could even become the standard across brands ... and of course that would be just one of their many, many products and services.)

17 March 2026

Obsessed About Time Travel

He realized, lying on his deathbed, that he had wasted his whole life in the lab chasing a time travel machine. It made him wish he could go back — live his life again, only this time spend less of it obsessing about time travel and more of it traipsing through forests, walking beaches, gazing at art, enjoying friends...

If only he had a —

Believing Impossible Things

"There's no use trying," Alice said; "one can't believe impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

Relationships are Like Tennis

Relationships are like tennis. They start with love - love and then people start making mistakes and keeping score.

16 March 2026

Time Travel First, Direction Next

Idea for a time travel movie in which the main character wastes all his naturally gifted going forward time trying to devise a means to go backwards in time.

I only wish I had come up with the idea earlier.

Instead of a Fortune Cookie Slip ...

“This is wildly inappropriate! Whose idea of a joke was this?”
He shouted across the restaurant, holding up the offending fortune cookie slip.
“What’s wrong?” the waiter asked, rushing over with genuine concern.
“Who prints this kind of thing on a fortune cookie?”
The waiter snatched the slip, read it, and promptly blushed.
“Oh no. I’m terribly sorry, sir. You’ve received one of our… Freudian slips by mistake.”
"How does this happen?"
"Well, the typical explanation is that it expresses something you scarcely admit to yourself. It may reveal deeper ..."
"I didn't ask for after-dinner therapy!"
"Does this mean that you won't be giving me a tip, sir?"
Diner looks aghast. "You do know this isn't helping."
Waiter reads the Freudian slip again, blushes and says, "Quite right, sir. I can see how my question just made things worse."

The Republican Party's Notions of What Government Can Do

One of many things that baffles me about the Republican Party (and this has been true since at least the time of George W. - possibly Reagan) is that they think it is beyond the scope of government to lift a child out of poverty but that a military strike will transform a foreign autocracy into a modern democracy.

15 March 2026

Names for Money

Light economic history.

Dollar is slang for a Federal Reserve Note.
A buck is slang for a dollar.
Moola is slang for a buck.
Filthy lucre is the point at which slang tips into cursing.

A Multi-Faith T-Shirt

It seems possible that a "w/ Jesus in my heart & Buddha in my belly, all I do is sing Allah-la-la-la" t-shirt has global market potential. It is also possible that it would simply be a product that would sell poorly everywhere and not just in one region.

12 March 2026

Francis Fukuyama on the War Against Iran

Francis Fukuyama, regarding the Trump administration's war against Iran.

"The Trump administration is behaving as if it were born yesterday, innocent of the accumulated understanding of regional politics, and the sources of earlier American policy failures. Indeed, it has expressed contempt for experts coming out of the administration and has excluded them. ... Instead it has relied on a sycophantic circle of loyalists, none of whom are likely to give the president reliable or realistic assessments about how to move forward. Consequently, the administration is making it up from day to day. ... The world has become a most dangerous place because the world has come under the power of a 10 year old boy."

Stock Market Performance Under Recent Presidents

 Well, at least the MAGA boys can console themselves by the fact that their boy is doing better than Carter or Bush 2.
So far.



Self Publishing in Multiple Locations

The good news is that he finally got his self-help book published.

The bad news is that it was picked up by a fortune cookie company.

His "book" was released in serial form — installments distributed across different restaurants, on different days, in different cities, in no particular order. Fittingly, it was a book on the power of networking, and recipients were encouraged to find each other and piece together what they'd learned. Of course, since those instructions were also released in random installments, it took quite some time before anyone knew this.

He took some comfort in the fact that his latest book had, technically, sold millions of copies. The five-star reviews were cryptic but numerous and often included references to bok choy, noodles and dim sum.

09 March 2026

On Mongrels and America

"Since races do not exist - though racism, damnably, does - mongrelism is our common lot. It may be a bitter one, as in the case of Merle Oberon, not altogether benign in such an instance as Queen Victoria, or fecund, as in that of Pushkin, but whether we want to accept it or not, we are all mongrels."

— Angus Calder

Merle Oberon (1911–1979) was a glamorous Hollywood and British film star of the 1930s and 1940s, born in Bombay to a mixed South Asian and European family. In the racial climate of early Hollywood, this background would likely have ended her career before it began.

So her studio invented a different woman entirely. Born in Tasmania, they said. European parents. Clean, simple, acceptable.

She spent decades performing two roles: the characters onscreen, and the invented self she wore everywhere else. Even close colleagues had no idea. The concealment was total, and it held.

Alexander Pushkin (1799–1837) is widely considered the founder of modern Russian literature — the writer who gave the Russian language its modern form, who shaped what Russians understood themselves to be. His great-grandfather, Abram Petrovich Gannibal, was an African child, likely from what is now Cameroon or Eritrea, brought to Europe as a slave, then adopted and educated at the court of Peter the Great, eventually becoming a military engineer and general. That ancestry runs directly into Pushkin, into the poems and stories that Russia called its own.

The nation's purest cultural touchstone. Mixed all the way down.

This is what Calder is pointing at: the things a culture holds up as essentially, irreducibly itself — its founding literature, its iconic faces — are rarely what they appear to be. Purity is almost always a retrospective fiction. The real thing, the living creative thing, tends to be a collision. Part this, part that, and then whatever strange third thing emerges from the two meeting.

Rock and roll is the American version of this story. It came from the collision of country and blues — the whitest and the blackest streams in American music running together until something neither tradition could have produced on its own came out the other side. Still restless. Still unfinished. Still, somehow, arresting.

That's America, really. Not pure. Never pure. Just the ongoing collision — of people, genes, languages, sounds, habits and tics from everywhere — producing something that keeps mutating and hasn't settled yet.

Calder called it our common lot. It might also be our best quality.

08 March 2026

Odd Thoughts on a Sunday

"Figure out who you are and then do it on purpose."
- Dolly Parton

*****
The first priority on your to do list should be doing what no one else can, doing the tasks that uniquely define you - and are uniquely defined by you.

*****

Conspiracy theories are just screenplays that writers couldn't get turned into a movie. They're fiction, but they're not particularly good fiction.

*****

"My job is to, quite simply, create the conditions whereby you [the employee] can do your life's work."
- Jensen Huang, CEO and co-founder of NVDIA, now the world's most valuable company

****

Possible futures:
In the future, AI will present all clothing ads to you as you in that clothing. Previously, there was confusion between how good the clothes look on beautiful, handsome models and how good they look on you. Once that confusion is behind us, clothing sales will plummet. One might think this is incentive enough not to run such ads but it'll increase the online population as people choose to stay virtual rather than step outside to be seen as their less than ideal selves.

06 March 2026

Labor and Financial Markets Roughly One Year Into Trump's Second Term - Not Impressive

A few items of note.

On a positive note, the job creation rate since Trump took office is still positive. However, in 5 of his first 12 months - including last month - the economy lost jobs. (For comparison, in each of the 48 months of Biden's presidency, the economy created - and never once lost - jobs.)
I'm sure it's all just a coincidence. Or misunderstanding.




The stock market is still up since Trump was elected. In fact, it is doing even better than it did during Bush 2's time in office.




04 March 2026

Stochastic Parrots and Politicians - Kensy Cooperrider's Conversation with Melanie Mitchell on How Metaphors for AI Might Shape Its Direction

Just listened to Kensy Cooperrider's latest episode with Dr. Melanie Mitchell on how the metaphors we use for AI shape our understanding, use and development of AI. It's fascinating because it is a reminder that AI is so often discussed as if it were a storm brewing off the coast of Florida and we don't know whether it will become heavy rain or violent waves and wind. And it seems to me that the metaphors we use really can shape how we shape AI itself.One of metaphors that has been often used with AI is "Stochastic Parrots." As Google AI itself describes it, this ... metaphor suggests that while LLMs can create fluent, human-like text, they lack true understanding, reasoning, or consciousness. LLMs are "parroting" patterns found in their training data.

Essentially, this metaphor suggests that AI doesn't really have any model of reality but instead is simply choosing what word to generate next based on probabilities found in texts it has (to use another metaphor) digested.

I think it's fascinating and couldn't help but wonder - for a brief moment - whether Trump - who seems so disconnected from the real world and consequences - might be thought of as a stochastic politician. But I digress.

Kensy's latest episode on "7 metaphors for AI" can be found here:
  
https://disi.org/seven-metaphors-for-ai/

02 March 2026

If You Could Time Travel Only Once, Would You?

You can time travel either into the past or future by up to 200 years. But you can only travel once. Whenever you land, that is your new time.

Do you do it? And wherever you'd land, which time would you choose?

I would -- as I am nearing the end of life -- choose to travel 100 years into the future. Worst case, I get to see what life is like then and die shortly afterward, as I was going to. Best case, life is enormously better and they chuckle that I was about to die from such trivial causes and extend my life by another 30 years in a new, strange time.

What about you?

27 February 2026

Corporate Culture, Conference Rooms, and a Curious Juke Box

My first instinct was to think they'd comically misconstrued the consultant's advice about culture. It took me some time to realize that what they had done might have actually been genius.

No other corporate boardroom had a juke box. When meetings bogged down, when conversations went awry, when tempers flared -- someone would wander over to the juke box, scan the song titles, and pick a song that took them out of themselves for a short while. It changed the mood and then the perspective. And almost inevitably redirected the conversation into a more helpful direction.

Juke box management. Three minutes to change the mood and focus.

The sequel - juice box management - is tailored to preschools.

Optimism as a Sign of Sophistication

One of our goals should be to create a culture in which optimism is seen as a sign of intelligence and sophistication and cynicism is a sign of a failure of imagination and indigestion.

Used to be a Fax Checker

“I used to be a fact checker.”

“Fax checker, Bob. You used to check faxes.”

“That’s what I said!”

“Well, not to be all fact-checky about it, but no. No, you did not.”

"Anyway, as a nation we gave up facts for texts and fancy memes."

“You did, Bob. Some of us only gave up on faxes — and still look longingly for facts.”

Free Will Isn't Free

Once he had been interested in free will. Now it simply felt like too much work.

It was easier to move with the current.

Whatever free will was, it certainly wasn’t free — and at this stage of his life, it cost more than he was willing to pay.

26 February 2026

Democracy is Like a Bicycle

“Democracy is like a bicycle. It must move forward in order not to fall over.”
- Edgar Faure, who served twice as Prime Minister of France during the Fourth Republic (1952 and 1955–56)

When societies don't make progress, or that progress isn't widely felt, democracies become vulnerable.

24 February 2026

A Call for More Medals at the Olympics

Top 10 in the world but you don't medal. That seems a little stingy, what with all the metals in the world. In addition to gold, silver, and bronze, we could have medals made of lead, copper, and platinum. We have 8 billion people on this planet -- surely we could acknowledge more than the top 3. I would love to hear someone come back excitedly saying, "I tin-foiled at the Olympics!"

What Is Most Systemic is Most Intimate - says Peter Senge

"When we say 'the system,' what we are really talking about is a pattern of interdependency that we enact. There is no system. It's purely an abstraction. But there are patterns of interdependency. And they are created every day. Every hour. Every minute. Through our thinking. Through our actions. So as Carl Rogers said, what is most personal is most universal. What is most systemic is most intimate."
- Peter Senge

Perhaps another way to put this is that we talk about "the system" as if it is some entity "out there." The system has its power because it is actually what defines how we interact, and it is something we've internalized. The system is in us. We sustain it.

Rough and Tumble Fighting in the South

In the antebellum South, a brutal form of combat known as "rough and tumble" fighting, or "gouging," was prevalent. This fighting style aimed to maim opponents, with eye-gouging being a particularly notorious tactic. Combatants often sought to gouge out an opponent's eye, and some even sharpened their teeth to bite off ears, noses, or fingers. Such fights were common in rural Southern areas during the 18th and early 19th centuries.

This culture of violence extended beyond individual brawls. Homicide rates among White Southern males were significantly higher than those of their Northern counterparts, especially in rural regions. Notably, these elevated rates were primarily associated with argument-related homicides, reflecting a societal norm where personal disputes frequently escalated to lethal outcomes. In a region in which 40% of the population was enslaved and had no rights, this sort of dehumanization was hardly anomalous.

On a related note, in this last election Trump won in the former confederacy by 6.9 million votes and lost by 4.7 million votes in the rest of the country.

Prediction: In a Generation Wealth Will Be Another Right of Citizens

Per Google's Gemini Model:

As of early 2026, Norway's sovereign wealth fund—the Government Pension Fund Global—has surpassed a value of $2 trillion. With a population of roughly 5.4 million to 5.6 million people, this translates to approximately $340,000 to $360,000 per citizen. It is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, investing oil and gas revenues into global stocks, bonds, and real estate.
Purpose: To manage oil revenues for long-term stability and to fund national budgets (healthcare, education, infrastructure).

My prediction? In a generation, wealth will be another right of citizens.

23 February 2026

Checks and Balances are Not Working

 


During Biden's administration, Americans agreed 2 to 1 that checks and balances were working.
Now in Trump's administration, Americans agree 2 to 1 that checks and balances are not working. 
Checks and balances seem like a fairly clean definition of the difference between living in a democracy or autocracy. 

Lincoln: Right Makes Might

In a speech about slavery during his 1860 campaign, Lincoln said,"Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it."

It is a dramatic reversal of the common phrase, "might makes right," and it suggests a principle that moral clarity creates political power, not the other way around.

22 February 2026

Hitchhiking as Uber 1.0

 Hitchhiking was arguably Uber 1.0 - the beta release before getting strangers to pick you up became an app.

Proposal for a Dog Museum

No paintings on the walls. No hushed docents.

Instead, along the baseboards: scents.

Each accompanied by a tasteful placard:

  • Dropped Sausage (One Bite Taken, Floor Contact: 3.2 Seconds)

  • Coyote After-Thought

  • Eau de French Poodle in Heat.
    (One of six rotational pheromonal exhibits. Please allow your dog to linger only briefly to prevent congestion.)

  • Fresh Mud After Rain

  • Frightened Human

  • Suspicious Delivery Driver

  • Pine Tree (Upper Bark, 3½ Feet High)

Interactive wing:
“Fire Hydrant, Urban” — a collaborative installation refreshed hourly.

Gift shop sells nothing visible.

William Deci on Autonomy Supportive Relationships

William Deci made a distinction that has greatly influenced me.

He argues that parents, managers and teachers have three options: control, abandonment or autonomy supportive.

Control is when you dictate, monitor and manage goals and process for your student, child or employee. Abandonment is when you simply say, "Do what you'd like." You give them freedom but not support. Autonomy supportive suggests that you defer rather than dictate goals but then offer support - teaching, processes, resources - that enable them to achieve those goals.
My sense is that every decade there are more parents who are autonomy supportive. The parent who says, "He wants to be a skateboarder. We're doing what we can to get him to tournaments and fund lessons," is considered interesting today whereas in the 50s they'd be considered crazy. (But to be fair to folks in the 50s, skateboards were so bad back then that you'd be right to be outraged.)

Among the many things meant by the popularization of entrepreneurship is this notion of autonomy supportive. Rather than dictate processes, you support their goals. What might this look like?

Ricardo Semler - in Brazil - had a fascinating model in his factory. He would have half a dozen workers side by side, each with their own arrangement. One was getting paid by the hour, another by the month and another by piece. Yet another was working in the same area but paying for access to the machinery and then selling the product on her own. It was not haphazard. Each was working to a negotiated arrangement. The person who wanted less risk also had less opportunity for rewards. The person who could get what she could sell the product for had to - of course - find the market for what she was making. Given where they were in their life, their skills and goals, different arrangements might advantage them differently. As so often is the case, as the employees did better, so did the company. As is so rarely the case, employees had a variety of ways to do better.

If work is going to look more entrepreneurial, by definition it will be less defined by someone else and more defined by the worker. And yet the array of resources, skills, and knowledge needed to be successful in any endeavor suggests that there is a huge gap of possibility in the large gap between a traditional entrepreneur who creates a new business and the employee who simply takes a role in such a business. To allow individuals to slide the scale between conformity and autonomy rather than toggle from 1 to 10 suggests all sorts of intriguing possibilities in the relationship between employer and employee, a redefinition of work. Chief among the shifts is moving into a relationship that lets employees define the goals and then supporting them in that.

There was an old quip that customers of the Model T could have any color they wanted as long as it was black. Ford's dominance of the American auto industry was eclipsed by General Motors who offered a wide array of car models and prices. And colors. The notion that you would accommodate the various desires of various customers was revelatory and also resulted in a huge gain in value.

One of the more stunning stats of the modern world is that Amazon offers more than 300 million different products to America's 300 million people. The notion that those same customers as workers might similarly want variety in their work and how they create value is something we still haven't embraced quite yet. We're still in the "any process or objective you want as long as it is our processes and objectives" stage of employment. My prediction? The shift into autonomy supportive relationships with employees will create even more value than corporations shifting from dictating consumer choices to broadening them.

A Korean Project Managers' Perspective on American and Japanese Employees

The Korean PM I was working with in 2022 worked with Americans and Japanese. I asked him how he would describe the differences. He said (paraphrasing),

"Japanese are very methodical. Very process oriented. All the same.
Americans? You don't know what you are going to get. They are very different."

And that, I thought, is our strength and weakness.

What Mardi Gras Evolved Into

Terms evolve. 

Mardi Gras became Fat Tuesday, which somehow became Taco Tuesday.
From sacred ritual to cultural celebration to something you can sink your teeth into.

20 February 2026

2026 - Not Just a Year

I hardly know whether to be comforted or insulted by the fact that the friendly hotel desk clerk clearly found me so old and befuddled that -- out of kindness -- he gave me a room number that just happens to be the year. Greatly lowering the odds that even I will forget it.

Separating Signal From Noise in Quarterly GDP Growth Reports

The rate of GDP growth from a year earlier fell from 2.3 to 2.2%. Which is to say, the rate of growth was essentially unchanged.

People who prefer the continuously compounded rate of quarterly change saw GDP growth fall from 4.3% to 1.4%. This measure assumes the change of the most recent quarter will continue for a full year. (Spoiler alert: it never does.) 

Headlines last quarter that told you the economy grew surprisingly fast and that this quarter tell you the economy has slowed down? Those folks might just be confusing noise for signal.

Why the Supreme Court Striking Down Trump's Tariffs Is Such a Great Thing

You would die within months if you were suddenly alone on a desert island with no one else to rely on. And that is why it is such a great thing that today the Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs.

Progress relies on one simple thing: widening the network of people with whom you can trade, invest, borrow, or coordinate in the production of new goods. If you have your family to help run your farm, you're so much better off than if you had to scratch out a living alone. If you can sell your product anywhere around the globe -- even to India where crop failures may have caused a surge in prices for legumes -- you might make more in one year's harvest than farmers a generation ago would have hoped to make in a decade.

Tariffs shrink that network. Widening it is the process that has defined progress for centuries.

18 February 2026

Free Will Gives Way to Fee Will

Because of inflation, free will will now come with a small fee. Some have protested that in a market economy it was only a matter of time before free will gave way to fee will but that seems unfair given that free will has - in a sense - been upgraded, coming as it does with so many more options and consequences. Free will is - if you will - far more consequential and so of course cannot continue at its old, low price.

"A Civilization Persisted from Athens to Rome to America

 This is the sort of nonsense you get from people who don't understand progress, evolution or Western Civilization.


17 February 2026

A Military Cost to our Failure to Help Ukraine in its Defense Against Russia

We spend on the order of $1 trillion a year on defense-related outlays, and the Department of Defense manages roughly $4 trillion in total assets -- not all weaponry, but a vast base of equipment, systems, facilities, and infrastructure. Much of America's defense posture -- its procurement habits, doctrine, and assumptions -- was shaped by Cold War deterrence, large-platform warfare (ships, aircraft, armor), and the lessons of Korea, Vietnam, and post-Cold War interventions.

Ukraine's rapid evolution of drone warfare suggests we may be living through a shift that could devalue much of that legacy investment. Cheap, fast-iterating drones -- paired with persistent surveillance, precision strike, and electronic warfare -- are rewriting what survives on a modern battlefield. This doesn't make tanks, ships, or aircraft obsolete overnight. But it raises a sobering possibility: some of what we're buying and maintaining may be optimized for a battlefield that is disappearing.

We're spending $1 trillion a year on defense. To save a tens - possibly hundreds - of billions, we're largely on the sideline in Ukraine's defense against the autocrat Putin. I would argue that helping to protect a democracy on the border of NATO from an autocracy is reason enough to get involved in Ukraine's defense, and for that reason alone we should have been more involved over the last 5 years. But even with that aside, we're missing out on a crucial period of battlefield evolution. The question isn't whether we can afford to help Ukraine. It's whether we can afford to sit out the war that's showing us what defense needs to become.

And here's the uncomfortable twist. Our reluctance to help Ukraine more -- sometimes defended on the grounds of cost -- may prove penny-wise and pound-foolish. Ukraine is pioneering the next frontier of battlefield adaptation in real time, under real fire, iterating faster than any peacetime R&D program could. Every lesson learned there is a lesson we don't have to learn the hard way. Underinvesting in that learning loop today could cost us far more later: in rushed procurement, doctrinal scramble, and painful write-downs of systems built for a previous era.


16 February 2026

George Washington and the Bank of England

Even through the American Revolution, General Washington - fighting British troops - never sold the stock he held in the Bank of England.

 #PresidentsDay

A Theory About Why Bitcoin Is Falling in Price

Anyone who claims to explain why bitcoin rose so much -- or is falling so much (down 42% in six months) -- should earn your suspicion. That said, I have a theory.

Bitcoin was created in the wake of the Great Recession as a substitute for the dollar and a banking system that had clearly and recently hurt people. Don't trust fiat money? Invest in crypto instead. The price of crypto became, in a way, a proxy for distrust in institutions -- specifically the U.S. government and banking system, but the sentiment was broader than that.

Trump won votes from people who felt the same distrust. He was the one man who would make things happen without the constraints of faltering institutions. The less trust people have in institutions, the more ready they are to explore a relationship with a strongman -- or a cryptocurrency.

So what has happened in this first year of Trump's presidency? People are being reminded that institutional norms actually bring a lot of value and stability. They are starting to question the philosophy of "we don't need no institutions." They may even be coming around to the notion that flawed institutions -- which might be the only kind we ever get -- are better than no institutions.

People are turning back to institutions. And bitcoin, as a measure of distrust in them, is falling in price.

15 February 2026

Economist: 61% of Americans Think Country is on the Wrong Track

From the Economist ... "A week into Donald Trump’s second term 37% of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction, while 50% thought it was on the wrong track. Those numbers are now 31% and 61%, respectively."




Xenophobes Don't Like It When You Call Them ...

He took offense at being called xenophobic. “Don’t call me foreign names,” he said. “Speak American.”

14 February 2026

One Way AI May Change Our Mind

We are not becoming a new biological species, but we may be becoming a new kind of mind. The capabilities that matter most—technological progress, supply chains, scientific discovery, finance—already emerge between billions of people. No one understands the whole, yet the whole functions. Dunbar-sized networks were visible; civilization-sized networks are largely invisible. AI may become the first tool that can see these systems in motion—how ideas spread, how technologies recombine, how institutions fail, how cultures polarize—at a scale no human brain can hold. The opportunity is not automated rule. It is aided perception: the ability to model consequences and coordinate action without turning politics into theater or governance into coercion.

Free will matters here because coordination is not the same thing as coercion. Markets coordinate behavior with prices; governments coordinate behavior with laws. Both can become coercive when your options collapse—when “choice” is a story you tell yourself to make necessity tolerable. If AI can see patterns and opportunities beyond any individual’s perception, it could expand freedom by expanding the menu of realistic paths. Not “do this or else,” but “given your skills, interests, and constraints, here are three routes that could plausibly make your life better.” The danger is obvious: the same system that can illuminate options can also become a gatekeeper. The promise is equally obvious: a society that uses intelligence to widen choice rather than narrow it.

Possible Side Effects of Watching Sports

Possible side effects of watching sports include back-to-back pharma ads. I can’t tell you what the drug does, but it may cause dizziness, rash, an inexplicable Hungarian accent, and a persistent belief that you are the starting quarterback.

Household Net Worth by Percentiles

Total Household net worth in the US is $173 trillion. Average net worth is about $1.3 million but that doesn't tell you a lot.

Here is data on household percentiles that tells you a little more about how wealth was distributed in the US in late 2025.

(And to clarify, that "Top 1" isn't percentiles ... it is literally the wealth of the top one American - currently Elon Musk.)



13 February 2026

One of Bill Abendroth's Favorite Lines

One of Abendroth's favorite lines from Arrested Development:
Michael: What did your grandfather say?
George Michael: Well... If you leave out the profanity, it's not really a sentence.

How AI's Opinion of Us Could Define Our Future

The quality of our future may depend on whether AI sees us more the way we see dogs and cats or cows and chickens.

America's Complete Rupture in International Relations

If you don't appreciate the magnitude of Trump siding with Putin against NATO - the extent that this represents a complete reversal of who we are as a country - you might safely conclude that you don't really understand the basis for prolonged peace and prosperity for the last 75 years.

12 February 2026

Does This Mean Employees Are More Valuable or Less Important?

Kyla Scanlon shares this. Greg Ip in the Wall Street Journal is reporting ...

IBM had 400,000 employees in 1985, the most valuable company in the US.

Now, 40 years later, Nvidia is 20x more valuable and 5x more profitable, but they have roughly 40,000 employees, 1/10th of the size.

Betting on the Return of Jesus

Google AI is sharing this about bets on Jesus' return.

****

Speculators are placing bets on a "Will Jesus return before 2027?" market on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket, with millions of dollars in volume. While the "No" side remains heavily favored, the "Yes" side has seen increased interest and, at times, volatile odds.

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, hosts the, "Will Jesus return before 2027?" bet, which attracted around $3.3 million in total volume as of early 2026.

In early February 2026, odds for a "YES" vote increased, moving to around 4.3 cents (implying a 4.3% probability). Later, speculators were aiming to drive the odds above 5%.

***

My own take is that if Jesus returns it'll be after the ICE agents who arrested and deported him in the first place have been laid off in a flurry of post-xenophobic government budget cuts.

Dow[n] Day at the NASDAQ

 Das Naquery!



11 February 2026

2025's Very Bad Job Numbers - 15,000 New Jobs a Year

Job numbers for January were finally released. More importantly, job numbers for last year were revised. The American economy created 181,000 jobs last year - an average of 15,000 per month. Other than the year COVID hit, that's the worst average since the Great Recession.



An Inflection Point for AI

A piece about how AI is rapidly evolving to the point that it will soon do a lot of the work of a lot of knowledge workers.
 
One way to put the punchline, the recommendation from the author of this piece? Learn how to use AI so that you are more likely to find your work enhanced by AI than replaced by AI.

And as if the times are not stressful enough, there is no guarantee that such a strategy will work. Then again, the real world has always offered far more probabilities than promises.


https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening

10 February 2026

The Political Arena is Not a Dance Hall - or Why Music Isn't What Needs to Unite Us

Jon Stewart nailed it: it's not a halftime entertainer's job to unify the country. If anyone has that job, it's the president—who once again created more divisiveness by attacking the halftime entertainer for... not unifying the country.

One of the best things about the modern world? There's never been less pressure to enjoy what everyone else does. My top Spotify songs from 2025 are by Waxahachie, Twin Shadow, Van Morrison, Pearl Jam, and Mondo Cozmo. Whether you hate or love these artists, I don't assume a thing about who you are as a person or whether we'd agree on policy.

Affection for a music genre strikes me as the definition of apolitical.

One great thing about the modern world: we can dress differently, listen to very different music, eat very different food, and still support the same policies, share a vision of the same community—where, crucially, we're not required to listen to each other's music.

To argue otherwise—that we must share cultural tastes to share political goals—seems like an odd commitment to keeping us divided.

Which, come to think of it, might be the point.

Thanks for coming to my rant.

09 February 2026

Time Travel Book

My, uh, time travel self-help book is titled, Time Travel: One Day at a Time.

08 February 2026

Super Bowl Halftime Entertainment Contrasted with Baseball

People making a big deal about the halftime show at the Super Bowl.

One more way baseball is a better game? You always know who the halftime performers will be (it'll be you, there in the stands) and what the music selection will be ("Take me out to the ballgame! ..").

Also, with baseball, it does not seem as though they're trying to meet a 3 injuries per game quota.

One More Generation Gap Metric - words per minute while talking

One of the more curious things about this late-stage information economy is how a person in his 30s on a podcast will talk about 2X as fast as a person in his 50s or 60s. I suspect it is an adaptation to living in a flood of information that simply can't be absorbed at the speed we ancients absorb it. They listen to podcasts at 2X and talk at 2X as well. One more way we become living artifacts.

Accidental Holidays

Today’s Super Bowel takes its place alongside other accidental typo holidays - Violent Time Day, Eater Brunch, Prude Month, and the curiously tasty Yum Kipper.

07 February 2026

The 2027 Paradigm Shift in No Hands Driving

Having grown impatient waiting for the full development of self-driving technology, in 2027 Americans simply went all in on modified bumper car design, building to absorb collisions rather than avoid them.

The Two Transformations of AI

My AI prediction has two dimensions.

First, I think it will do for knowledge work what power tools did for craftsmen. You still have hand tools—but now you also have a table saw. It will increase productivity and make some tasks much easier and still leave us with a number of tasks to do "by brain" in the same way that power tools still leave us with some tasks to do "by hand." 

The second dimension is more speculative. It concerns what AI might mean for the definition of “we.” At some point in evolutionary history, single-celled organisms became multicellular organisms. It’s not obvious that the single cells understood what was happening or even understand now that they're part of something larger, responding as they still do to their "environment." Single cells may still think they are the center of the universe in the same way that we individuals tend to, even when surrounded by 8 billion other individuals with similar notions.

AI may synthesize intelligence and insight in ways that cause us to organize, decide, and act collectively beyond our full understanding—or even our awareness. We may become something larger than we are individually. In this way it'll act much like cultures, institutions and markets. That is, make us part of something bigger.

Artificial Intelligence could become one more force that shapes us and that we don't fully understand but feel our way through by competing theories - just as we do with markets and cultures.

06 February 2026

Trump's Exchange With Kaitlin Collins

Asked about Epstein's victims yesterday, Trump told the woman reporter - Kaitlin Collins - who asked him that she should smile more. Which I'm sure is what he and Jeffrey told those teenage girls.

Trump's Racism

 Racism for Republicans - it's a feature, not a bug.


And of course just yesterday, regarding the young women who were victims of Donald Trump's closest friend Jeffrey Epstein, Trump told a woman reporter that she should smile more.

Clearly old white crackers are the swing vote in this country. 


05 February 2026

A Bad Combination

It is bad enough to be stupid or arrogant but there ought to be a law against anyone who insists on being both. 

02 February 2026

Sir Bill Browder on Russia, Politics, and Trump

I don't think I've ever shared a YouTube interview on here before but this is unique. Sir Bill Browder explains how Putin operates and points out that what Trump is doing is aligned with Putin's methods.

Who is Bill Browder? His grandfather ran as a communist for president in the US and as a young man he decided that in rebellion against this odd family of his, if his grandfather was to be the most famous communist in the US, he - Bill Browder - would become the most famous capitalist in Russia. And he did just that, becoming wildly successful in Russia in its early, post-communist days ... until he crossed Putin and had to flee the Russia to save his own life.

In this interview he tells his story and shares his observation that Trump seems very much like Putin and is doing little to hide his goals or methods.

01 February 2026

Next iteration YOLO

YOLT!
The jolt you get when you realize you only live twice - as the reincarnationists tried to warn you.

As Self Driving Cars Move More Rapidly, Will That Drive Rapid Obsolescence of Traditional Cars?

If self-driving hits a real inflection point—safer, easier, and not dramatically more expensive—what happens to the resale value of cars that need a human behind the wheel?

It is possible that this won't change because of preference. It might actually be increasingly difficult to use a traditional car in a world with more self-driving cars.

I can imagine cities and states saying: “During rush hour we’re going to run certain express lanes as coordinated convoys—tight spacing, high speed, smooth flow. Humans can’t be trusted in that environment, so those lanes are autonomous-only.” Not everywhere, not always—just enough to matter.

And once the most valuable driving real estate (time + roads) starts going autonomous-first, doesn’t a human-driven car become less like “transportation” and more like a hobby?

What do you think—does this crater demand for non-autonomous cars, or does car ownership simply evolve (self-driving becomes the new normal) without destroying the legacy market?

Personally, I feel like we could quickly hit an inflection point that makes human driven cars increasingly dangerous which would collapse their resale value.

31 January 2026

2 Important Messages to Broadcast During the Trump Presidency

I think it is important to have two messages in the midst of the chaos and attacks on norms driven by President Trump.

1. Trump and his supporters are fans of autocracy and eager to move us closer to a government like that of some place like Russia at worst and Hungary at best. It is difficult to overstate this.
2. Trump has no power the instant Americans decide that he has gone too far. I'm not saying he'll be neutered quickly or easily but I am saying that if even 10% of Republicans decide that they don't want a dictatorship, he can - and will - be stopped quickly. 335 million Americans have so much more power than 1 former reality TV star.

Two ways we slide further into crisis. One is to pretend that he's a normal president. The other is to pretend that we're helpless against him. Neither is true.

What Are the Odds?

I’ve calculated the odds of this happening.

And?

It would be very odd if this happened.

What Korea Dramatically Illustrates About the Contrast Between Relying on Strongmen or Institutions

Trump's allure isn't novel. He's a strongman who will blow up institutions - even democracy - while insisting that only he can fix things. He can't.

The most telling experiment in the modern world played out in Korea over the last 75 years or so.
Racists can't explain the difference between North and South because .. well, the whole peninsula is populated by Koreans.

More enlightened folks who point to culture instead of race can't explain the difference because ... well, the whole peninsula is populated by Koreans.

If the difference can't be explained by memes (culture) or genes (race), what does explain it?

The North trusts a strongman.
The South (after a faltering stage or two in which they did flirt with authoritarianism) trusts in institutions.

What kind of difference does that make?

It takes only 2 weeks for the average South Korean to generate as much GDP as a North Korean creates in a year.

Trump is doing everything he can to undermine institutions - even democracy itself. Anyone who thinks that will help the regions of the country generating less wealth and jobs - or even those regions generating more wealth and jobs - is ignoring repeated lessons of history of people who trust in strongmen rather than institutions. 

30 January 2026

NATO Secretary Mark Rutte on Russia's Massive Casualties in War Against Ukraine

Based on reports from January 2026, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that Russia is experiencing "massive" casualties in its ongoing war against Ukraine, with estimates of Russian personnel killed in action reaching approximately 20,000 to 25,000 per month.

Monthly Death Toll (20,000–25,000+): Rutte emphasized that these figures represent soldiers killed (dead), not merely wounded. Some reports indicate that in December 2025, the rate was as high as 1,000 killed per day, totaling over 30,000 dead in that month alone.

Comparison to Afghanistan (1980s): Rutte and other officials have pointed out that Russia is losing more soldiers in a single month in Ukraine than the Soviet Union lost during its entire 10-year campaign in Afghanistan (where roughly 15,000–20,000 Soviet soldiers were killed).

Casualty Ratios (Dead vs. Wounded): Reports consistently indicate a historically high proportion of fatal casualties to wounded. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) study suggests that Russian forces have incurred over 1 million total casualties (dead and wounded) by early 2026, driven by intense "meat grinder" tactics.

Ukraine has gamified the use of drones in its attacks on Russian armies (rewarding teams for more deadly attacks and drone technology) and this seems to have contributed to its deadly force against Russia. It's not clear at what point Putin will stop his attacks but it seems as though this escalation will lead to some tipping point at which he loses his authority to rule, either by military forces rising against him, seeing their chances of succeeding at a coup as just as good or better than surviving the escalating attack from Ukraine. Or the Russian people may  turn on him, an event that would depend more on an assassination than a military maneuver by desperate forces or people. Even worse, his country may just be ground down by rapidly evolving Ukrainian weaponry and forces and eventually lose its international power, left a shell of its former self. It may even be as conceivable that Ukraine invades Russia as it is that Russians turn on their president who treats them as expendable. In any case, it seems hard to imagine a world in which Russians long put up with 1,000 soldiers killed each day.

It is also easy to imagine that AI will enhance both the evolution of drone design, construction and lethality and resultant gains against Russia, suggesting that even the nearly inconceivable 30,000 killed each month may rise.

Nothing about Putin's current military action seems sustainable. 

Why MAGA Hates George Soros

MAGA hates George Soros for a simple reason. The man lived under fascism and communism and understands that the fact of authoritarianism is secondary to the distinctions between commies and fascists.

28 January 2026

New WNBA Team: Sleeveless in Seattle

I told Sandi, "I think a good NBA team name would be 'Men in Tank Tops.'" She quickly came back with a much better WNBA name: Sleeveless in Seattle 



Fed Chair Powell on Disconnect Between Consumer Sentiment and Behavior

"Consumers are filling out questionaries with fairly downbeat information and then ... spending. There has been a disconnect for sometime between consumer sentiment and behavior."
- Jerome Powell, 28 Jan FOMC meeting press conference.

The Canadian Dollar During Trump's Presidency

Shortly after Trump was inaugurated and announcing tariffs, the Canadian dollar was worth 68 cents to the US dollar. It is now at 74 cents.


A Perspective on Today's Politics and the Need for Less Traumatic Triggers for Change

In an America with less than one-tenth today’s population, the Civil War, over four years, killed more than 2% of all Americans—somewhere between 620,000 and 750,000 people. That works out to about 425 deaths every day. A comparable civil war today, at the same population share, would mean roughly 6.7 to 8.4 million deaths—about 4,600 to 5,700 Americans per day for four years. A 9/11 every day, for four years—and then some.

My reading of history has left me wildly optimistic about the direction of progress. It took me a while to notice a darker pattern alongside that optimism: Americans are capable of profound change, but they often seem willing to exercise that capacity only after something egregious has occurred. Apparently, change is so hard that we have to make things worse before people will make them better.

The Civil War was horrific. It also became a catalyst for the end of slavery, accelerated industrialization, and helped forge a national identity where many Americans had previously lived in worlds no larger than their state or region. The country was clearly much better after the Civil War than before it.

Today, many Americans feel shaken by Trump’s policies—by the erosion of norms, the stress on institutions, even the deployment of federal power in American cities. That reaction is reasonable. Healthy even. One important thing to remember, however, is this: none of this approaches Civil War–level trauma. You're tough enough for this and can both move to change things and still delight in all that delights you. You should be outraged - but only occasionally. 

The good news is that outrage often precedes reform. The bad news is that, historically, things have tended to get much worse before Americans mobilize to make them better. When this period passes—and it will—we should take that lesson seriously. We need to build a political system capable of steady, constructive progress without requiring catastrophe as its trigger. A catalyst for change that looks more like sustained conversation than a bar fight. Because we will make a better America after all this - but that will also be an America that our grandkids think is not enough. (And they'll be right.) The good news is that we're still improving this fascinating experiment called America. The even better news is that we're getting better at improving how we drive improvements.

27 January 2026

Voter Turnout Seems to Rise in a Divided Country

A divided country tends to vote at higher rates. Earlier this century, voter turnout in U.S. presidential general elections hovered around 55% of eligible voters.

Between 1848 and 1872 — a period that included the Civil War — average turnout was about 75%. Viewed in that light, recent presidential elections are telling: turnout was 67% in 2020 and 65% in 2024, both high by modern standards and reflective of a deeply divided electorate.

As I've said before, I think the slogan that could win the next election is, "Make politics boring again."

The Balancing Act: FDR vs. Dictatorship and the Power of Inclusive Policy (Or, What is Fascism?)

Franklin Roosevelt and Adolf Hitler both came to power in 1933 and died in April 1945—one by stroke, the other by suicide. Their parallel timelines make the contrast in governance stark.

System

Core Alignment

Who Was Excluded

Hitler’s Fascism

Government + Business

Labor, democracy, intellectuals, free press

Stalin’s Communism

Government – Business

Independent labor, markets, press, and thought

FDR’s New Deal Democracy

Government + Business + Labor + Intellectuals + Free Press

None, in principle; dissent tolerated and institutionalized

 

Hitler and Stalin crushed opposition. FDR, facing the Great Depression, could not dictate policy—nor did he wish to. Instead, he built an economy that worked through inclusion: Congress, the courts, corporations, unions, intellectuals, and a free press all played roles. No one was silenced for dissenting ideas.

This made policy slower but more sustainable. It also made it democratic.


The Great Experiment in Inclusive Governance

The 1930s and 1940s tested three competing economic systems—capitalism, communism, and fascism—under the pressures of depression and war.

Fascism and communism seemed, at first, to demonstrate superior efficiency: Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR mobilized industries rapidly, while democracies looked paralyzed by debate. Yet the cost—repression, censorship, and moral catastrophe—soon revealed that such efficiency was brittle.

FDR’s “third way” wasn’t an “either–or” but an “and”: public investment and private enterprise, labor and management, federal power and local initiative. He depended on cooperation rather than control. Even when Congress or the Supreme Court struck down his ideas—such as his first child-labor bill—he adapted rather than crushed opposition.

To build support, Roosevelt accepted compromises, some tragic. To win southern Democrats’ votes, for instance, he excluded domestic and farm workers—many of them Black—from Social Security. Progress was incomplete, but FDR understood that the measure of reform is better, not perfect. People who sacrifice progress for perfection, he knew, end up with neither.


How the Systems Treated Business

The difference among regimes can be seen in their treatment of corporations.

  • Stalin: Private enterprise virtually abolished. The economy was state-owned and centrally planned; inefficiency was endemic.
  • Hitler: Private firms remained but operated under strict state direction—rearmament priorities, wage controls, and “Aryanization.” Ownership was private; purpose was dictated.
  • FDR: Business stayed private but subject to democratic regulation—the SEC, FDIC, and Wagner Act balanced capital with accountability. During WWII, firms accepted temporary direction but returned to normal market decisions afterward.

FDR renegotiated the balance between Adam Smith’s market and Jefferson’s democracy. His genius lay not in speed or purity but in creating institutions that could reconcile competing interests and keep learning.

He embodied that openness personally: FDR held 998 press conferences, about two per week, a record unmatched by any president. His administration invited scrutiny because he understood that criticism was a source of strength, not weakness.


Fast but Fragile: Dictatorship’s Illusion of Efficiency

Authoritarian systems look effective because they move fast—but that speed comes from excluding dissent.

  • Hitler’s Germany recovered quickly from the Depression but only by crushing labor, silencing intellectuals, and building an economy dependent on conquest. Once war began, the system devoured itself.
  • Stalin’s USSR industrialized rapidly but at staggering human and economic cost. Without market feedback or intellectual freedom, stagnation was inevitable.

The apparent efficiency of autocracy was a mirage—impressive bursts of progress followed by collapse or sclerosis. The absence of open debate guaranteed such results.


FDR’s Alternative: A Sustainable Flywheel

Roosevelt institutionalized negotiation rather than command.
Key New Deal policies—

  • the Wagner Act (1935) protecting unions,
  • the Social Security Act (1935) creating a safety net, and
  • the Fair Labor Standards Act (1938) setting wages and hours—
    all reflected a belief that balanced participation produces lasting strength.
  • Intellectual freedom underpinned innovation—from the Manhattan Project to advances in medicine and computing.
  • A free press ensured public accountability.

He also safeguarded intellectual freedom, which later paid dividends in wartime research from radar to the Manhattan Project. Meanwhile, an independent press kept citizens informed and officials accountable.

These policies took time to shape but proved adaptable. By WWII, the U.S. could mobilize like a command economy yet remain democratic and privately driven—a hybrid far more effective than Germany’s rigid model. Protecting rather than purging intellectuals drew global talent—Einstein, Fermi, and others—whose discoveries gave the Allies decisive advantages.

Unlike Hitler, who needed war to sustain his regime, Roosevelt built an economy that could thrive in peace. The institutions of the New Deal—banking reforms, labor protections, social insurance, and research funding—underpinned decades of prosperity. The National Science Foundation, conceived just before FDR’s death, signaled that even knowledge itself had become an economic institution.


Enduring Institutions

When Eisenhower, the first Republican president after FDR, took office, he didn’t undo the New Deal. Quite the opposite. In a 1954 letter, he wrote:

“Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. … There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things… Their number is small and they are stupid …”

Just as Lincoln had created an economy in which a ruling party could never again ignore capital, FDR had created an economy in which labor could never again be ignored.