On Mongrels and America

"Since races do not exist - though racism, damnably, does - mongrelism is our common lot. It may be a bitter one, as in the case of Merle Oberon, not altogether benign in such an instance as Queen Victoria, or fecund, as in that of Pushkin, but whether we want to accept it or not, we are all mongrels."

— Angus Calder

Merle Oberon (1911–1979) was a glamorous Hollywood and British film star of the 1930s and 1940s, born in Bombay to a mixed South Asian and European family. In the racial climate of early Hollywood, this background would likely have ended her career before it began.

So her studio invented a different woman entirely. Born in Tasmania, they said. European parents. Clean, simple, acceptable.

She spent decades performing two roles: the characters onscreen, and the invented self she wore everywhere else. Even close colleagues had no idea. The concealment was total, and it held.

Alexander Pushkin (1799–1837) is widely considered the founder of modern Russian literature — the writer who gave the Russian language its modern form, who shaped what Russians understood themselves to be. His great-grandfather, Abram Petrovich Gannibal, was an African child, likely from what is now Cameroon or Eritrea, brought to Europe as a slave, then adopted and educated at the court of Peter the Great, eventually becoming a military engineer and general. That ancestry runs directly into Pushkin, into the poems and stories that Russia called its own.

The nation's purest cultural touchstone. Mixed all the way down.

This is what Calder is pointing at: the things a culture holds up as essentially, irreducibly itself — its founding literature, its iconic faces — are rarely what they appear to be. Purity is almost always a retrospective fiction. The real thing, the living creative thing, tends to be a collision. Part this, part that, and then whatever strange third thing emerges from the two meeting.

Rock and roll is the American version of this story. It came from the collision of country and blues — the whitest and the blackest streams in American music running together until something neither tradition could have produced on its own came out the other side. Still restless. Still unfinished. Still, somehow, arresting.

That's America, really. Not pure. Never pure. Just the ongoing collision — of people, genes, languages, sounds, habits and tics from everywhere — producing something that keeps mutating and hasn't settled yet.

Calder called it our common lot. It might also be our best quality.

Odd Thoughts on a Sunday

"Figure out who you are and then do it on purpose."
- Dolly Parton

*****
The first priority on your to do list should be doing what no one else can, doing the tasks that uniquely define you - and are uniquely defined by you.

*****

Conspiracy theories are just screenplays that writers couldn't get turned into a movie. They're fiction, but they're not particularly good fiction.

*****

"My job is to, quite simply, create the conditions whereby you [the employee] can do your life's work."
- Jensen Huang, CEO and co-founder of NVDIA, now the world's most valuable company

****

Possible futures:
In the future, AI will present all clothing ads to you as you in that clothing. Previously, there was confusion between how good the clothes look on beautiful, handsome models and how good they look on you. Once that confusion is behind us, clothing sales will plummet. One might think this is incentive enough not to run such ads but it'll increase the online population as people choose to stay virtual rather than step outside to be seen as their less than ideal selves.

Labor and Financial Markets Roughly One Year Into Trump's Second Term - Not Impressive

A few items of note.

On a positive note, the job creation rate since Trump took office is still positive. However, in 5 of his first 12 months - including last month - the economy lost jobs. (For comparison, in each of the 48 months of Biden's presidency, the economy created - and never once lost - jobs.)
I'm sure it's all just a coincidence. Or misunderstanding.

The stock market is still up since Trump was elected. In fact, it is doing even better than it did during Bush 2's time in office.

Stochastic Parrots and Politicians - Kensy Cooperrider's Conversation with Melanie Mitchell on How Metaphors for AI Might Shape Its Direction

Just listened to Kensy Cooperrider's latest episode with Dr. Melanie Mitchell on how the metaphors we use for AI shape our understanding, use and development of AI. It's fascinating because it is a reminder that AI is so often discussed as if it were a storm brewing off the coast of Florida and we don't know whether it will become heavy rain or violent waves and wind. And it seems to me that the metaphors we use really can shape how we shape AI itself.One of metaphors that has been often used with AI is "Stochastic Parrots." As Google AI itself describes it, this ... metaphor suggests that while LLMs can create fluent, human-like text, they lack true understanding, reasoning, or consciousness. LLMs are "parroting" patterns found in their training data.

Essentially, this metaphor suggests that AI doesn't really have any model of reality but instead is simply choosing what word to generate next based on probabilities found in texts it has (to use another metaphor) digested.

I think it's fascinating and couldn't help but wonder - for a brief moment - whether Trump - who seems so disconnected from the real world and consequences - might be thought of as a stochastic politician. But I digress.

Kensy's latest episode on "7 metaphors for AI" can be found here:
  https://disi.org/seven-metaphors-for-ai/

If You Could Time Travel Only Once, Would You?

You can time travel either into the past or future by up to 200 years. But you can only travel once. Whenever you land, that is your new time.

Do you do it? And wherever you'd land, which time would you choose?

I would -- as I am nearing the end of life -- choose to travel 100 years into the future. Worst case, I get to see what life is like then and die shortly afterward, as I was going to. Best case, life is enormously better and they chuckle that I was about to die from such trivial causes and extend my life by another 30 years in a new, strange time.

What about you?

Corporate Culture, Conference Rooms, and a Curious Juke Box

My first instinct was to think they'd comically misconstrued the consultant's advice about culture. It took me some time to realize that what they had done might have actually been genius.

No other corporate boardroom had a juke box. When meetings bogged down, when conversations went awry, when tempers flared -- someone would wander over to the juke box, scan the song titles, and pick a song that took them out of themselves for a short while. It changed the mood and then the perspective. And almost inevitably redirected the conversation into a more helpful direction.

Juke box management. Three minutes to change the mood and focus.

The sequel - juice box management - is tailored to preschools.

Optimism as a Sign of Sophistication

One of our goals should be to create a culture in which optimism is seen as a sign of intelligence and sophistication and cynicism is a sign of a failure of imagination and indigestion.

Used to be a Fax Checker

“I used to be a fact checker.”

“Fax checker, Bob. You used to check faxes.”

“That’s what I said!”

“Well, not to be all fact-checky about it, but no. No, you did not.”

"Anyway, as a nation we gave up facts for texts and fancy memes."

“You did, Bob. Some of us only gave up on faxes — and still look longingly for facts.”

Free Will Isn't Free

Once he had been interested in free will. Now it simply felt like too much work.

It was easier to move with the current.

Whatever free will was, it certainly wasn’t free — and at this stage of his life, it cost more than he was willing to pay.

Democracy is Like a Bicycle

“Democracy is like a bicycle. It must move forward in order not to fall over.”
- Edgar Faure, who served twice as Prime Minister of France during the Fourth Republic (1952 and 1955–56)

When societies don't make progress, or that progress isn't widely felt, democracies become vulnerable.

A Call for More Medals at the Olympics

Top 10 in the world but you don't medal. That seems a little stingy, what with all the metals in the world. In addition to gold, silver, and bronze, we could have medals made of lead, copper, and platinum. We have 8 billion people on this planet -- surely we could acknowledge more than the top 3. I would love to hear someone come back excitedly saying, "I tin-foiled at the Olympics!"

What Is Most Systemic is Most Intimate - says Peter Senge

"When we say 'the system,' what we are really talking about is a pattern of interdependency that we enact. There is no system. It's purely an abstraction. But there are patterns of interdependency. And they are created every day. Every hour. Every minute. Through our thinking. Through our actions. So as Carl Rogers said, what is most personal is most universal. What is most systemic is most intimate."
- Peter Senge

Perhaps another way to put this is that we talk about "the system" as if it is some entity "out there." The system has its power because it is actually what defines how we interact, and it is something we've internalized. The system is in us. We sustain it.

Rough and Tumble Fighting in the South

In the antebellum South, a brutal form of combat known as "rough and tumble" fighting, or "gouging," was prevalent. This fighting style aimed to maim opponents, with eye-gouging being a particularly notorious tactic. Combatants often sought to gouge out an opponent's eye, and some even sharpened their teeth to bite off ears, noses, or fingers. Such fights were common in rural Southern areas during the 18th and early 19th centuries.

This culture of violence extended beyond individual brawls. Homicide rates among White Southern males were significantly higher than those of their Northern counterparts, especially in rural regions. Notably, these elevated rates were primarily associated with argument-related homicides, reflecting a societal norm where personal disputes frequently escalated to lethal outcomes. In a region in which 40% of the population was enslaved and had no rights, this sort of dehumanization was hardly anomalous.

On a related note, in this last election Trump won in the former confederacy by 6.9 million votes and lost by 4.7 million votes in the rest of the country.

Prediction: In a Generation Wealth Will Be Another Right of Citizens

Per Google's Gemini Model:

As of early 2026, Norway's sovereign wealth fund—the Government Pension Fund Global—has surpassed a value of $2 trillion. With a population of roughly 5.4 million to 5.6 million people, this translates to approximately $340,000 to $360,000 per citizen. It is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, investing oil and gas revenues into global stocks, bonds, and real estate.
Purpose: To manage oil revenues for long-term stability and to fund national budgets (healthcare, education, infrastructure).

My prediction? In a generation, wealth will be another right of citizens.

Checks and Balances are Not Working

 

During Biden's administration, Americans agreed 2 to 1 that checks and balances were working.
Now in Trump's administration, Americans agree 2 to 1 that checks and balances are not working. 

Checks and balances seem like a fairly clean definition of the difference between living in a democracy or autocracy. 

Lincoln: Right Makes Might

In a speech about slavery during his 1860 campaign, Lincoln said,"Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it."

It is a dramatic reversal of the common phrase, "might makes right," and it suggests a principle that moral clarity creates political power, not the other way around.

Hitchhiking as Uber 1.0

 Hitchhiking was arguably Uber 1.0 - the beta release before getting strangers to pick you up became an app.

Proposal for a Dog Museum

No paintings on the walls. No hushed docents.

Instead, along the baseboards: scents.

Each accompanied by a tasteful placard:

• Dropped Sausage (One Bite Taken, Floor Contact: 3.2 Seconds)

• Coyote After-Thought

• Eau de French Poodle in Heat.
  (One of six rotational pheromonal exhibits. Please allow your dog to linger only briefly to prevent congestion.)

• Fresh Mud After Rain

• Frightened Human

• Suspicious Delivery Driver

• Pine Tree (Upper Bark, 3½ Feet High)

Interactive wing:
“Fire Hydrant, Urban” — a collaborative installation refreshed hourly.

Gift shop sells nothing visible.

William Deci on Autonomy Supportive Relationships

William Deci made a distinction that has greatly influenced me.

He argues that parents, managers and teachers have three options: control, abandonment or autonomy supportive.

Control is when you dictate, monitor and manage goals and process for your student, child or employee. Abandonment is when you simply say, "Do what you'd like." You give them freedom but not support. Autonomy supportive suggests that you defer rather than dictate goals but then offer support - teaching, processes, resources - that enable them to achieve those goals.
My sense is that every decade there are more parents who are autonomy supportive. The parent who says, "He wants to be a skateboarder. We're doing what we can to get him to tournaments and fund lessons," is considered interesting today whereas in the 50s they'd be considered crazy. (But to be fair to folks in the 50s, skateboards were so bad back then that you'd be right to be outraged.)

Among the many things meant by the popularization of entrepreneurship is this notion of autonomy supportive. Rather than dictate processes, you support their goals. What might this look like?

Ricardo Semler - in Brazil - had a fascinating model in his factory. He would have half a dozen workers side by side, each with their own arrangement. One was getting paid by the hour, another by the month and another by piece. Yet another was working in the same area but paying for access to the machinery and then selling the product on her own. It was not haphazard. Each was working to a negotiated arrangement. The person who wanted less risk also had less opportunity for rewards. The person who could get what she could sell the product for had to - of course - find the market for what she was making. Given where they were in their life, their skills and goals, different arrangements might advantage them differently. As so often is the case, as the employees did better, so did the company. As is so rarely the case, employees had a variety of ways to do better.

If work is going to look more entrepreneurial, by definition it will be less defined by someone else and more defined by the worker. And yet the array of resources, skills, and knowledge needed to be successful in any endeavor suggests that there is a huge gap of possibility in the large gap between a traditional entrepreneur who creates a new business and the employee who simply takes a role in such a business. To allow individuals to slide the scale between conformity and autonomy rather than toggle from 1 to 10 suggests all sorts of intriguing possibilities in the relationship between employer and employee, a redefinition of work. Chief among the shifts is moving into a relationship that lets employees define the goals and then supporting them in that.

There was an old quip that customers of the Model T could have any color they wanted as long as it was black. Ford's dominance of the American auto industry was eclipsed by General Motors who offered a wide array of car models and prices. And colors. The notion that you would accommodate the various desires of various customers was revelatory and also resulted in a huge gain in value.

One of the more stunning stats of the modern world is that Amazon offers more than 300 million different products to America's 300 million people. The notion that those same customers as workers might similarly want variety in their work and how they create value is something we still haven't embraced quite yet. We're still in the "any process or objective you want as long as it is our processes and objectives" stage of employment. My prediction? The shift into autonomy supportive relationships with employees will create even more value than corporations shifting from dictating consumer choices to broadening them.

A Korean Project Managers' Perspective on American and Japanese Employees

The Korean PM I was working with in 2022 worked with Americans and Japanese. I asked him how he would describe the differences. He said (paraphrasing),

"Japanese are very methodical. Very process oriented. All the same.
Americans? You don't know what you are going to get. They are very different."

And that, I thought, is our strength and weakness.

What Mardi Gras Evolved Into

Terms evolve. 

Mardi Gras became Fat Tuesday, which somehow became Taco Tuesday.
From sacred ritual to cultural celebration to something you can sink your teeth into.

2026 - Not Just a Year

I hardly know whether to be comforted or insulted by the fact that the friendly hotel desk clerk clearly found me so old and befuddled that -- out of kindness -- he gave me a room number that just happens to be the year. Greatly lowering the odds that even I will forget it.

Separating Signal From Noise in Quarterly GDP Growth Reports

The rate of GDP growth from a year earlier fell from 2.3 to 2.2%. Which is to say, the rate of growth was essentially unchanged.

People who prefer the continuously compounded rate of quarterly change saw GDP growth fall from 4.3% to 1.4%. This measure assumes the change of the most recent quarter will continue for a full year. (Spoiler alert: it never does.) 

Headlines last quarter that told you the economy grew surprisingly fast and that this quarter tell you the economy has slowed down? Those folks might just be confusing noise for signal.

Why the Supreme Court Striking Down Trump's Tariffs Is Such a Great Thing

You would die within months if you were suddenly alone on a desert island with no one else to rely on. And that is why it is such a great thing that today the Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs.

Progress relies on one simple thing: widening the network of people with whom you can trade, invest, borrow, or coordinate in the production of new goods. If you have your family to help run your farm, you're so much better off than if you had to scratch out a living alone. If you can sell your product anywhere around the globe -- even to India where crop failures may have caused a surge in prices for legumes -- you might make more in one year's harvest than farmers a generation ago would have hoped to make in a decade.

Tariffs shrink that network. Widening it is the process that has defined progress for centuries.

Free Will Gives Way to Fee Will

Because of inflation, free will will now come with a small fee. Some have protested that in a market economy it was only a matter of time before free will gave way to fee will but that seems unfair given that free will has - in a sense - been upgraded, coming as it does with so many more options and consequences. Free will is - if you will - far more consequential and so of course cannot continue at its old, low price.

"A Civilization Persisted from Athens to Rome to America

 This is the sort of nonsense you get from people who don't understand progress, evolution or Western Civilization.

A Military Cost to our Failure to Help Ukraine in its Defense Against Russia

We spend on the order of $1 trillion a year on defense-related outlays, and the Department of Defense manages roughly $4 trillion in total assets -- not all weaponry, but a vast base of equipment, systems, facilities, and infrastructure. Much of America's defense posture -- its procurement habits, doctrine, and assumptions -- was shaped by Cold War deterrence, large-platform warfare (ships, aircraft, armor), and the lessons of Korea, Vietnam, and post-Cold War interventions.

Ukraine's rapid evolution of drone warfare suggests we may be living through a shift that could devalue much of that legacy investment. Cheap, fast-iterating drones -- paired with persistent surveillance, precision strike, and electronic warfare -- are rewriting what survives on a modern battlefield. This doesn't make tanks, ships, or aircraft obsolete overnight. But it raises a sobering possibility: some of what we're buying and maintaining may be optimized for a battlefield that is disappearing.

We're spending $1 trillion a year on defense. To save a tens - possibly hundreds - of billions, we're largely on the sideline in Ukraine's defense against the autocrat Putin. I would argue that helping to protect a democracy on the border of NATO from an autocracy is reason enough to get involved in Ukraine's defense, and for that reason alone we should have been more involved over the last 5 years. But even with that aside, we're missing out on a crucial period of battlefield evolution. The question isn't whether we can afford to help Ukraine. It's whether we can afford to sit out the war that's showing us what defense needs to become.

And here's the uncomfortable twist. Our reluctance to help Ukraine more -- sometimes defended on the grounds of cost -- may prove penny-wise and pound-foolish. Ukraine is pioneering the next frontier of battlefield adaptation in real time, under real fire, iterating faster than any peacetime R&D program could. Every lesson learned there is a lesson we don't have to learn the hard way. Underinvesting in that learning loop today could cost us far more later: in rushed procurement, doctrinal scramble, and painful write-downs of systems built for a previous era.

George Washington and the Bank of England

Even through the American Revolution, General Washington - fighting British troops - never sold the stock he held in the Bank of England.

 #PresidentsDay

A Theory About Why Bitcoin Is Falling in Price

Anyone who claims to explain why bitcoin rose so much -- or is falling so much (down 42% in six months) -- should earn your suspicion. That said, I have a theory.

Bitcoin was created in the wake of the Great Recession as a substitute for the dollar and a banking system that had clearly and recently hurt people. Don't trust fiat money? Invest in crypto instead. The price of crypto became, in a way, a proxy for distrust in institutions -- specifically the U.S. government and banking system, but the sentiment was broader than that.

Trump won votes from people who felt the same distrust. He was the one man who would make things happen without the constraints of faltering institutions. The less trust people have in institutions, the more ready they are to explore a relationship with a strongman -- or a cryptocurrency.

So what has happened in this first year of Trump's presidency? People are being reminded that institutional norms actually bring a lot of value and stability. They are starting to question the philosophy of "we don't need no institutions." They may even be coming around to the notion that flawed institutions -- which might be the only kind we ever get -- are better than no institutions.

People are turning back to institutions. And bitcoin, as a measure of distrust in them, is falling in price.

Economist: 61% of Americans Think Country is on the Wrong Track

From the Economist ... "A week into Donald Trump’s second term 37% of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction, while 50% thought it was on the wrong track. Those numbers are now 31% and 61%, respectively."

Xenophobes Don't Like It When You Call Them ...

He took offense at being called xenophobic. “Don’t call me foreign names,” he said. “Speak American.”

One Way AI May Change Our Mind

We are not becoming a new biological species, but we may be becoming a new kind of mind. The capabilities that matter most—technological progress, supply chains, scientific discovery, finance—already emerge between billions of people. No one understands the whole, yet the whole functions. Dunbar-sized networks were visible; civilization-sized networks are largely invisible. AI may become the first tool that can see these systems in motion—how ideas spread, how technologies recombine, how institutions fail, how cultures polarize—at a scale no human brain can hold. The opportunity is not automated rule. It is aided perception: the ability to model consequences and coordinate action without turning politics into theater or governance into coercion.

Free will matters here because coordination is not the same thing as coercion. Markets coordinate behavior with prices; governments coordinate behavior with laws. Both can become coercive when your options collapse—when “choice” is a story you tell yourself to make necessity tolerable. If AI can see patterns and opportunities beyond any individual’s perception, it could expand freedom by expanding the menu of realistic paths. Not “do this or else,” but “given your skills, interests, and constraints, here are three routes that could plausibly make your life better.” The danger is obvious: the same system that can illuminate options can also become a gatekeeper. The promise is equally obvious: a society that uses intelligence to widen choice rather than narrow it.

Possible Side Effects of Watching Sports

Possible side effects of watching sports include back-to-back pharma ads. I can’t tell you what the drug does, but it may cause dizziness, rash, an inexplicable Hungarian accent, and a persistent belief that you are the starting quarterback.

Household Net Worth by Percentiles

Total Household net worth in the US is $173 trillion. Average net worth is about $1.3 million but that doesn't tell you a lot.

Here is data on household percentiles that tells you a little more about how wealth was distributed in the US in late 2025.

(And to clarify, that "Top 1" isn't percentiles ... it is literally the wealth of the top one American - currently Elon Musk.)

One of Bill Abendroth's Favorite Lines

One of Abendroth's favorite lines from Arrested Development:

Michael: What did your grandfather say?
George Michael: Well... If you leave out the profanity, it's not really a sentence.

How AI's Opinion of Us Could Define Our Future

The quality of our future may depend on whether AI sees us more the way we see dogs and cats or cows and chickens.

America's Complete Rupture in International Relations

If you don't appreciate the magnitude of Trump siding with Putin against NATO - the extent that this represents a complete reversal of who we are as a country - you might safely conclude that you don't really understand the basis for prolonged peace and prosperity for the last 75 years.

Does This Mean Employees Are More Valuable or Less Important?

Kyla Scanlon shares this. Greg Ip in the Wall Street Journal is reporting ...

IBM had 400,000 employees in 1985, the most valuable company in the US.

Now, 40 years later, Nvidia is 20x more valuable and 5x more profitable, but they have roughly 40,000 employees, 1/10th of the size.

Betting on the Return of Jesus

Google AI is sharing this about bets on Jesus' return.

****

Speculators are placing bets on a "Will Jesus return before 2027?" market on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket, with millions of dollars in volume. While the "No" side remains heavily favored, the "Yes" side has seen increased interest and, at times, volatile odds.

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, hosts the, "Will Jesus return before 2027?" bet, which attracted around $3.3 million in total volume as of early 2026.

In early February 2026, odds for a "YES" vote increased, moving to around 4.3 cents (implying a 4.3% probability). Later, speculators were aiming to drive the odds above 5%.

***

My own take is that if Jesus returns it'll be after the ICE agents who arrested and deported him in the first place have been laid off in a flurry of post-xenophobic government budget cuts.

Dow[n] Day at the NASDAQ

 Das Naquery!

2025's Very Bad Job Numbers - 15,000 New Jobs a Year

Job numbers for January were finally released. More importantly, job numbers for last year were revised. The American economy created 181,000 jobs last year - an average of 15,000 per month. Other than the year COVID hit, that's the worst average since the Great Recession.

An Inflection Point for AI

A piece about how AI is rapidly evolving to the point that it will soon do a lot of the work of a lot of knowledge workers.

 
One way to put the punchline, the recommendation from the author of this piece? Learn how to use AI so that you are more likely to find your work enhanced by AI than replaced by AI.

And as if the times are not stressful enough, there is no guarantee that such a strategy will work. Then again, the real world has always offered far more probabilities than promises.

https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening

The Political Arena is Not a Dance Hall - or Why Music Isn't What Needs to Unite Us

Jon Stewart nailed it: it's not a halftime entertainer's job to unify the country. If anyone has that job, it's the president—who once again created more divisiveness by attacking the halftime entertainer for... not unifying the country.

One of the best things about the modern world? There's never been less pressure to enjoy what everyone else does. My top Spotify songs from 2025 are by Waxahachie, Twin Shadow, Van Morrison, Pearl Jam, and Mondo Cozmo. Whether you hate or love these artists, I don't assume a thing about who you are as a person or whether we'd agree on policy.

Affection for a music genre strikes me as the definition of apolitical.

One great thing about the modern world: we can dress differently, listen to very different music, eat very different food, and still support the same policies, share a vision of the same community—where, crucially, we're not required to listen to each other's music.

To argue otherwise—that we must share cultural tastes to share political goals—seems like an odd commitment to keeping us divided.

Which, come to think of it, might be the point.

Thanks for coming to my rant.

Time Travel Book

My, uh, time travel self-help book is titled, Time Travel: One Day at a Time.

Super Bowl Halftime Entertainment Contrasted with Baseball

People making a big deal about the halftime show at the Super Bowl.

One more way baseball is a better game? You always know who the halftime performers will be (it'll be you, there in the stands) and what the music selection will be ("Take me out to the ballgame! ..").

Also, with baseball, it does not seem as though they're trying to meet a 3 injuries per game quota.

One More Generation Gap Metric - words per minute while talking

One of the more curious things about this late-stage information economy is how a person in his 30s on a podcast will talk about 2X as fast as a person in his 50s or 60s. I suspect it is an adaptation to living in a flood of information that simply can't be absorbed at the speed we ancients absorb it. They listen to podcasts at 2X and talk at 2X as well. One more way we become living artifacts.

Accidental Holidays

Today’s Super Bowel takes its place alongside other accidental typo holidays - Violent Time Day, Eater Brunch, Prude Month, and the curiously tasty Yum Kipper.

The 2027 Paradigm Shift in No Hands Driving

Having grown impatient waiting for the full development of self-driving technology, in 2027 Americans simply went all in on modified bumper car design, building to absorb collisions rather than avoid them.

The Two Transformations of AI

My AI prediction has two dimensions.

First, I think it will do for knowledge work what power tools did for craftsmen. You still have hand tools—but now you also have a table saw. It will increase productivity and make some tasks much easier and still leave us with a number of tasks to do "by brain" in the same way that power tools still leave us with some tasks to do "by hand." 

The second dimension is more speculative. It concerns what AI might mean for the definition of “we.” At some point in evolutionary history, single-celled organisms became multicellular organisms. It’s not obvious that the single cells understood what was happening or even understand now that they're part of something larger, responding as they still do to their "environment." Single cells may still think they are the center of the universe in the same way that we individuals tend to, even when surrounded by 8 billion other individuals with similar notions.

AI may synthesize intelligence and insight in ways that cause us to organize, decide, and act collectively beyond our full understanding—or even our awareness. We may become something larger than we are individually. In this way it'll act much like cultures, institutions and markets. That is, make us part of something bigger.

Artificial Intelligence could become one more force that shapes us and that we don't fully understand but feel our way through by competing theories - just as we do with markets and cultures.

Trump's Exchange With Kaitlin Collins

Asked about Epstein's victims yesterday, Trump told the woman reporter - Kaitlin Collins - who asked him that she should smile more. Which I'm sure is what he and Jeffrey told those teenage girls.

Trump's Racism

 Racism for Republicans - it's a feature, not a bug.

And of course just yesterday, regarding the young women who were victims of Donald Trump's closest friend Jeffrey Epstein, Trump told a woman reporter that she should smile more.

Clearly old white crackers are the swing vote in this country. 

A Bad Combination

It is bad enough to be stupid or arrogant but there ought to be a law against anyone who insists on being both. 

Sir Bill Browder on Russia, Politics, and Trump

I don't think I've ever shared a YouTube interview on here before but this is unique. Sir Bill Browder explains how Putin operates and points out that what Trump is doing is aligned with Putin's methods.

Who is Bill Browder? His grandfather ran as a communist for president in the US and as a young man he decided that in rebellion against this odd family of his, if his grandfather was to be the most famous communist in the US, he - Bill Browder - would become the most famous capitalist in Russia. And he did just that, becoming wildly successful in Russia in its early, post-communist days ... until he crossed Putin and had to flee the Russia to save his own life.

In this interview he tells his story and shares his observation that Trump seems very much like Putin and is doing little to hide his goals or methods.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkE6_nJb-UA

Next iteration YOLO

YOLT!
The jolt you get when you realize you only live twice - as the reincarnationists tried to warn you.

As Self Driving Cars Move More Rapidly, Will That Drive Rapid Obsolescence of Traditional Cars?

If self-driving hits a real inflection point—safer, easier, and not dramatically more expensive—what happens to the resale value of cars that need a human behind the wheel?

It is possible that this won't change because of preference. It might actually be increasingly difficult to use a traditional car in a world with more self-driving cars.

I can imagine cities and states saying: “During rush hour we’re going to run certain express lanes as coordinated convoys—tight spacing, high speed, smooth flow. Humans can’t be trusted in that environment, so those lanes are autonomous-only.” Not everywhere, not always—just enough to matter.

And once the most valuable driving real estate (time + roads) starts going autonomous-first, doesn’t a human-driven car become less like “transportation” and more like a hobby?

What do you think—does this crater demand for non-autonomous cars, or does car ownership simply evolve (self-driving becomes the new normal) without destroying the legacy market?

Personally, I feel like we could quickly hit an inflection point that makes human driven cars increasingly dangerous which would collapse their resale value.

2 Important Messages to Broadcast During the Trump Presidency

I think it is important to have two messages in the midst of the chaos and attacks on norms driven by President Trump.

1. Trump and his supporters are fans of autocracy and eager to move us closer to a government like that of some place like Russia at worst and Hungary at best. It is difficult to overstate this.
2. Trump has no power the instant Americans decide that he has gone too far. I'm not saying he'll be neutered quickly or easily but I am saying that if even 10% of Republicans decide that they don't want a dictatorship, he can - and will - be stopped quickly. 335 million Americans have so much more power than 1 former reality TV star.

Two ways we slide further into crisis. One is to pretend that he's a normal president. The other is to pretend that we're helpless against him. Neither is true.

What Are the Odds?

I’ve calculated the odds of this happening.

And?

It would be very odd if this happened.

What Korea Dramatically Illustrates About the Contrast Between Relying on Strongmen or Institutions

Trump's allure isn't novel. He's a strongman who will blow up institutions - even democracy - while insisting that only he can fix things. He can't.

The most telling experiment in the modern world played out in Korea over the last 75 years or so.
Racists can't explain the difference between North and South because .. well, the whole peninsula is populated by Koreans.

More enlightened folks who point to culture instead of race can't explain the difference because ... well, the whole peninsula is populated by Koreans.

If the difference can't be explained by memes (culture) or genes (race), what does explain it?

The North trusts a strongman.
The South (after a faltering stage or two in which they did flirt with authoritarianism) trusts in institutions.

What kind of difference does that make?

It takes only 2 weeks for the average South Korean to generate as much GDP as a North Korean creates in a year.

Trump is doing everything he can to undermine institutions - even democracy itself. Anyone who thinks that will help the regions of the country generating less wealth and jobs - or even those regions generating more wealth and jobs - is ignoring repeated lessons of history of people who trust in strongmen rather than institutions. 

NATO Secretary Mark Rutte on Russia's Massive Casualties in War Against Ukraine

Based on reports from January 2026, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that Russia is experiencing "massive" casualties in its ongoing war against Ukraine, with estimates of Russian personnel killed in action reaching approximately 20,000 to 25,000 per month.

Monthly Death Toll (20,000–25,000+): Rutte emphasized that these figures represent soldiers killed (dead), not merely wounded. Some reports indicate that in December 2025, the rate was as high as 1,000 killed per day, totaling over 30,000 dead in that month alone.

Comparison to Afghanistan (1980s): Rutte and other officials have pointed out that Russia is losing more soldiers in a single month in Ukraine than the Soviet Union lost during its entire 10-year campaign in Afghanistan (where roughly 15,000–20,000 Soviet soldiers were killed).

Casualty Ratios (Dead vs. Wounded): Reports consistently indicate a historically high proportion of fatal casualties to wounded. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) study suggests that Russian forces have incurred over 1 million total casualties (dead and wounded) by early 2026, driven by intense "meat grinder" tactics.

Ukraine has gamified the use of drones in its attacks on Russian armies (rewarding teams for more deadly attacks and drone technology) and this seems to have contributed to its deadly force against Russia. It's not clear at what point Putin will stop his attacks but it seems as though this escalation will lead to some tipping point at which he loses his authority to rule, either by military forces rising against him, seeing their chances of succeeding at a coup as just as good or better than surviving the escalating attack from Ukraine. Or the Russian people may  turn on him, an event that would depend more on an assassination than a military maneuver by desperate forces or people. Even worse, his country may just be ground down by rapidly evolving Ukrainian weaponry and forces and eventually lose its international power, left a shell of its former self. It may even be as conceivable that Ukraine invades Russia as it is that Russians turn on their president who treats them as expendable. In any case, it seems hard to imagine a world in which Russians long put up with 1,000 soldiers killed each day.

It is also easy to imagine that AI will enhance both the evolution of drone design, construction and lethality and resultant gains against Russia, suggesting that even the nearly inconceivable 30,000 killed each month may rise.

Nothing about Putin's current military action seems sustainable. 

Why MAGA Hates George Soros

MAGA hates George Soros for a simple reason. The man lived under fascism and communism and understands that the fact of authoritarianism is secondary to the distinctions between commies and fascists.

New WNBA Team: Sleeveless in Seattle

I told Sandi, "I think a good NBA team name would be 'Men in Tank Tops.'" She quickly came back with a much better WNBA name: Sleeveless in Seattle 

Fed Chair Powell on Disconnect Between Consumer Sentiment and Behavior

"Consumers are filling out questionaries with fairly downbeat information and then ... spending. There has been a disconnect for sometime between consumer sentiment and behavior."

- Jerome Powell, 28 Jan FOMC meeting press conference.

The Canadian Dollar During Trump's Presidency

Shortly after Trump was inaugurated and announcing tariffs, the Canadian dollar was worth 68 cents to the US dollar. It is now at 74 cents.

A Perspective on Today's Politics and the Need for Less Traumatic Triggers for Change

In an America with less than one-tenth today’s population, the Civil War, over four years, killed more than 2% of all Americans—somewhere between 620,000 and 750,000 people. That works out to about 425 deaths every day. A comparable civil war today, at the same population share, would mean roughly 6.7 to 8.4 million deaths—about 4,600 to 5,700 Americans per day for four years. A 9/11 every day, for four years—and then some.

My reading of history has left me wildly optimistic about the direction of progress. It took me a while to notice a darker pattern alongside that optimism: Americans are capable of profound change, but they often seem willing to exercise that capacity only after something egregious has occurred. Apparently, change is so hard that we have to make things worse before people will make them better.

The Civil War was horrific. It also became a catalyst for the end of slavery, accelerated industrialization, and helped forge a national identity where many Americans had previously lived in worlds no larger than their state or region. The country was clearly much better after the Civil War than before it.

Today, many Americans feel shaken by Trump’s policies—by the erosion of norms, the stress on institutions, even the deployment of federal power in American cities. That reaction is reasonable. Healthy even. One important thing to remember, however, is this: none of this approaches Civil War–level trauma. You're tough enough for this and can both move to change things and still delight in all that delights you. You should be outraged - but only occasionally. 

The good news is that outrage often precedes reform. The bad news is that, historically, things have tended to get much worse before Americans mobilize to make them better. When this period passes—and it will—we should take that lesson seriously. We need to build a political system capable of steady, constructive progress without requiring catastrophe as its trigger. A catalyst for change that looks more like sustained conversation than a bar fight. Because we will make a better America after all this - but that will also be an America that our grandkids think is not enough. (And they'll be right.) The good news is that we're still improving this fascinating experiment called America. The even better news is that we're getting better at improving how we drive improvements.

Voter Turnout Seems to Rise in a Divided Country

A divided country tends to vote at higher rates. Earlier this century, voter turnout in U.S. presidential general elections hovered around 55% of eligible voters.

Between 1848 and 1872 — a period that included the Civil War — average turnout was about 75%. Viewed in that light, recent presidential elections are telling: turnout was 67% in 2020 and 65% in 2024, both high by modern standards and reflective of a deeply divided electorate.

As I've said before, I think the slogan that could win the next election is, "Make politics boring again."

The Balancing Act: FDR vs. Dictatorship and the Power of Inclusive Policy (Or, What is Fascism?)

Franklin Roosevelt and Adolf Hitler both came to power in 1933 and died in April 1945—one by stroke, the other by suicide. Their parallel timelines make the contrast in governance stark.

System	Core Alignment	Who Was Excluded
Hitler’s Fascism	Government + Business	Labor, democracy, intellectuals, free press
Stalin’s Communism	Government – Business	Independent labor, markets, press, and thought
FDR’s New Deal Democracy	Government + Business + Labor + Intellectuals + Free Press	None, in principle; dissent tolerated and institutionalized

 

Hitler and Stalin crushed opposition. FDR, facing the Great Depression, could not dictate policy—nor did he wish to. Instead, he built an economy that worked through inclusion: Congress, the courts, corporations, unions, intellectuals, and a free press all played roles. No one was silenced for dissenting ideas.

This made policy slower but more sustainable. It also made it democratic.

---

The Great Experiment in Inclusive Governance

The 1930s and 1940s tested three competing economic systems—capitalism, communism, and fascism—under the pressures of depression and war.

Fascism and communism seemed, at first, to demonstrate superior efficiency: Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR mobilized industries rapidly, while democracies looked paralyzed by debate. Yet the cost—repression, censorship, and moral catastrophe—soon revealed that such efficiency was brittle.

FDR’s “third way” wasn’t an “either–or” but an “and”: public investment and private enterprise, labor and management, federal power and local initiative. He depended on cooperation rather than control. Even when Congress or the Supreme Court struck down his ideas—such as his first child-labor bill—he adapted rather than crushed opposition.

To build support, Roosevelt accepted compromises, some tragic. To win southern Democrats’ votes, for instance, he excluded domestic and farm workers—many of them Black—from Social Security. Progress was incomplete, but FDR understood that the measure of reform is better, not perfect. People who sacrifice progress for perfection, he knew, end up with neither.

---

How the Systems Treated Business

The difference among regimes can be seen in their treatment of corporations.

• Stalin: Private enterprise virtually abolished. The economy was state-owned and centrally planned; inefficiency was endemic.
• Hitler: Private firms remained but operated under strict state direction—rearmament priorities, wage controls, and “Aryanization.” Ownership was private; purpose was dictated.
• FDR: Business stayed private but subject to democratic regulation—the SEC, FDIC, and Wagner Act balanced capital with accountability. During WWII, firms accepted temporary direction but returned to normal market decisions afterward.

FDR renegotiated the balance between Adam Smith’s market and Jefferson’s democracy. His genius lay not in speed or purity but in creating institutions that could reconcile competing interests and keep learning.

He embodied that openness personally: FDR held 998 press conferences, about two per week, a record unmatched by any president. His administration invited scrutiny because he understood that criticism was a source of strength, not weakness.

---

Fast but Fragile: Dictatorship’s Illusion of Efficiency

Authoritarian systems look effective because they move fast—but that speed comes from excluding dissent.

• Hitler’s Germany recovered quickly from the Depression but only by crushing labor, silencing intellectuals, and building an economy dependent on conquest. Once war began, the system devoured itself.
• Stalin’s USSR industrialized rapidly but at staggering human and economic cost. Without market feedback or intellectual freedom, stagnation was inevitable.

The apparent efficiency of autocracy was a mirage—impressive bursts of progress followed by collapse or sclerosis. The absence of open debate guaranteed such results.

---

FDR’s Alternative: A Sustainable Flywheel

Roosevelt institutionalized negotiation rather than command.
Key New Deal policies—

• the Wagner Act (1935) protecting unions,
• the Social Security Act (1935) creating a safety net, and
• the Fair Labor Standards Act (1938) setting wages and hours—
  all reflected a belief that balanced participation produces lasting strength.
• Intellectual freedom underpinned innovation—from the Manhattan Project to advances in medicine and computing.
• A free press ensured public accountability.

He also safeguarded intellectual freedom, which later paid dividends in wartime research from radar to the Manhattan Project. Meanwhile, an independent press kept citizens informed and officials accountable.

These policies took time to shape but proved adaptable. By WWII, the U.S. could mobilize like a command economy yet remain democratic and privately driven—a hybrid far more effective than Germany’s rigid model. Protecting rather than purging intellectuals drew global talent—Einstein, Fermi, and others—whose discoveries gave the Allies decisive advantages.

Unlike Hitler, who needed war to sustain his regime, Roosevelt built an economy that could thrive in peace. The institutions of the New Deal—banking reforms, labor protections, social insurance, and research funding—underpinned decades of prosperity. The National Science Foundation, conceived just before FDR’s death, signaled that even knowledge itself had become an economic institution.

---

Enduring Institutions

When Eisenhower, the first Republican president after FDR, took office, he didn’t undo the New Deal. Quite the opposite. In a 1954 letter, he wrote:

“Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. … There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things… Their number is small and they are stupid …”

Just as Lincoln had created an economy in which a ruling party could never again ignore capital, FDR had created an economy in which labor could never again be ignored.

The Price of Gold Rises as Trust in Institutions Wanes

Gold has risen sharply, up 90% in the last year. That alone doesn’t prove much, but it is suggestive.

I don’t particularly like metals as investments, but they have a place. Fiat currency is extraordinarily powerful when paired with strong institutions: a legal system that defines and protects private property, enforces contracts, and adjudicates disputes predictably. In that context, dollars aren’t just paper—they’re claims embedded in a functioning system.

But when faith in that system weakens, metals start to look more appealing. Gold, in particular, functions as an international asset that is far less dependent on any single country’s legal regime or political stability. It doesn’t require trust in courts, central banks, or elected officials—just belief that others will accept it.

I wasn’t prescient enough to anticipate gold’s recent rise, but in retrospect it makes sense. (And if you cynically suggest that this is true of most market changes, I'd have to wince and admit you're right.) When the world’s largest economy is led by an aspiring strongman who has openly mused about subordinating the central bank, weakening institutional checks, and ruling by personal will rather than predictable policy, some investors will move money out of bank accounts, bonds, and equities—and into assets that feel insulated from political discretion.

My crude working theory is this: if Congress and the courts continue to constrain attempts to concentrate power, the dollar will likely hold its value reasonably well. If those guardrails erode, international currencies and gold will continue to gain relative to it.

That said, I don’t claim deep expertise here. The system is complex, the variables numerous, and even if this framing is mostly right, predicting timing and magnitude is extremely difficult. Markets often sniff out risk early—but they also overshoot, reverse, and surprise.

Gold’s rise may not be prophecy. It may simply be a barometer: not of certainty, but of growing doubt about the reliability of governance itself.

NO MORE ICE!

There’s a lot of reporting right now about federal agents and protesters in Minneapolis after recent deadly use-of-force incidents involving ICE and Border Patrol. I get that many people are rightfully outraged by what’s happened — and by the tactics being used in the city. At the same time, I have to wonder whether some of the protesters on those frigid Minneapolis streets aren’t just confusedly protesting the weather. At 40 below, no more ice is a message with at least two levels of urgency.

Soon to Hit 2 Million Views on R World

My darling wife, who knows me as well as anyone, has suggested that I suffer from idearhea.
In related news, it appears that my blog is on track to hit 2 million views within the next 24 hours. Nearly half of that traffic has come in just the last year.

There are more than 3,000 posts—some short, meant to provoke a chuckle; others longer, aiming to provoke thought or float theories about complex events.

One theory is that I’ve written about so many different topics, and the blog is free, so AI systems occasionally wander through looking for material. (I realize this theory rests on the assumption that I’m a useful partner to what may be the emerging superpower - so yes, skepticism is warranted.)

If you visit in the next 24 hours, you might even become the two-millionth reader. No prize, unfortunately - just a front-row seat to my condition.

Ouija Board Stand at a Funeral Home

His first job was at twelve. An early entrepreneur, he set up a Ouija board table outside a funeral home with a simple sign: “Proper goodbyes. Lingering questions.”

Any Hope in the Fact That MAGA Lied About Why They Supported Trump?

Why were MAGA so critical of Joe Biden?
He was too old and prices were too high.

Who did they then vote for?
A guy who broke Biden's record as oldest president on inauguration day and whose tariffs would raise prices.

Do you think that Trump supporters are just embarrassed to admit why they so love Trump? And is there hope in the fact that they might just be embarrassed about why they really like the guy?

The Difference Between Conservatives and Fascists

 

Remembering Anne Frank

I took this picture of the statute of Anne Frank in Amsterdam years ago. It's a reminder to everyone about the consequences of committing to the cruelty of the idea that any child can be "illegal."

Illegal children. Can you imagine being so stupid that you could say something like that and not even feel embarrassed or ashamed?

AE as Segue to AI

While less aspirational visionaries race to perfect artificial intelligence, I’ll be in the garage tinkering with artificial emotions.
And for the record, I genuinely care how you feel about this.

Trump Shares a Peace of His Mind

Trump announced a new Board of Peace.
Which is, admittedly, indistinguishable from saying he’s bored of peace.

Creating a Global Trading System with Multiple Alliances

Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, gave a quietly brilliant speech the other day about building new alliances. Soon after, Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union is on the brink of a historic agreement with India, linking two of the world’s largest economies.
One of the most encouraging responses to Trump’s nationalist nonsense is that the rest of the world is not freezing—it’s reorganizing. New alliances are emerging that don’t depend on unanimity among all advanced economies. Instead, they resemble independent suspension: parallel paths for cooperation that keep moving even when one wheel hits a pothole. The result is a global economy that is less fragile and less hostage to the domestic politics of any single nation.
Trump and his toxic isolationist policies will eventually dissolve. But they may also prove catalytic—accelerating the emergence of a new world order that is, paradoxically, healthier.
It’s easy to imagine that the EU, India, China, the United States, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will each, at different moments, retreat from global trade under nationalist pressure. If the global economy depends on a single consensus, those retreats are destabilizing. But if it rests on overlapping agreements—multiple alliances that don’t all hinge on everyone’s approval—the system becomes far more resilient.

Nationalist, anti-trade sentiment will ebb and flow. A more modular, redundant system of trade relationships won’t eliminate that tendency—but it will blunt its impact, preserving growth, cooperation, and prosperity over the long run.

Greenland! Iceland! Not Sure What It Is or Where But We Must Have It!

 

This week Trump first said that the US had to have Greenland and that he would use force to take it. Then later he conceded that as much as he had to have Greenland, he would not use force to take it. And before we had worked his way out of the paragraph regarding Greenland, he was calling it Iceland. Meanwhile, NATO troops had moved into Greenland to defend against an American attack.

Trump clearly feels more allegiance with Putin than, say, Mark Rutte, the head of NATO and previous Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Trump would rather partner with despots and go to war with democracies. 

Americans Mostly Uneasy About Trump's Presidency (but also frustrated, unsafe, exhausted ...)

The pursuit of happiness seems to have taken us down a rabbit hole.





So, America, how do you feel about Trump's presidency?
Mixed. I have mixed feelings.

Market Manipulation and Puzzling Political Orientation

Trump says he'll invade Greenland. Markets fall nearly 2%.

Trump says he won't invade Greenland. Markets rise nearly 2%.
Market manipulation is incredibly lucrative for folks who know what is coming.

Related, after a generation or two of civics classes being taught by high school football coaches and home schooling parents, there must be millions of Americans surprised to learn that - in spite of what they've been taught - they are actually fascists and not conservatives.

Trump's Odd Hatred for the Great City of Minneapolis

I've worked with a number of product development teams in Minneapolis and got to spend quite a bit of time there. (Among other things, they have a vibrant medical device industry there.) The simplest way I can think to sum up what a delightfully unexpected place and people it is? The same city gave us Garrison Keillor and Prince.

If a community can nurture and make a home for people so talented and so different, you know that it has a great blend of practical, whimsical, and nurturing, a sense of humor about itself and a sense of respect for others and who they can become.

And the world's oldest toddler has sent troops to that city to disrupt and kill and has sent arrest warrants for Minnesota's governor and Minneapolis's mayor.

I guess a few people who hate Garrison Keillor and or Prince might consider themselves real Americans but that seems odd. What is really American? Lauding the communities that manage to nurture people capable of contributing to the rich culture that makes it so hard to say, exactly, just what America is.

Both weird and unsurprising that Trump finds Minneapolis so offensive.

Stock Market Day After Trump's Announcement That He's Going to War Over Greenland

Markets were down sharply today.
NASDAQ - 2.4%
S&P 500 - 2.1%
Dow - 1.8%

Weird that an American president can't even announce that he's going to war against NATO without investors getting all nervous.

The Toronto Stock Exchange was down about half that, by the way.

Trump Daily Amps Up the Fascist Meter - Serving Subpoenas to Minnesota Governor, Attorney General and Minneapolis Mayor

Trump is casually planning going to war with NATO - putting the US in the same camp as Russia - and is arresting state governors, mayors and attorney generals. And some of you supporters of his still think you're conservatives, not fascists. You need to read some history.

From Reuter's ... BREAKING: Subpoenas were served at the offices of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, a DOJ official said as protests and an immigration enforcement crackdown continue in the state.

Time to Invoke the 25th Amendment

The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution clarifies presidential succession and disability, establishing procedures for when the President dies, resigns, or is removed, allowing the Vice President to become President (Section 1). It also provides a process for filling a vacant Vice Presidency (Section 2) and mechanisms for temporarily transferring presidential powers (Section 3) or permanently removing a disabled President with Congress's help (Section 4). Ratified in 1967 after President Kennedy's assassination, it addresses succession gaps and presidential inability, ensuring continuity of government.

Donald Trump 2026 - Like King Lear But With Nuclear Weapons

Another way to phrase Donald Trump's note to Norway's Prime Minister?
"Since you would not give me the Nobel Peace Prize I will be going to war with you."


This is surreal. The stuff of a deranged mind. Republicans who continue to support Trump (yes, this includes ordinary Americans and not just elected officials) are colluding with this descent into madness. It is like King Lear - a descent into madness - but with nuclear weapons.


Here is Donald's note from 19 January 2026:

“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”

The 100 Year Gap Between the Civil War and Civil Rights - an Argument About How Culture, Entrepreneurship and Institutions Are Connected

Jeremy Bentham wrote that “natural rights” are “nonsense upon stilts.” He was not criticizing rights as aspirations but instead rights without institutions. Bentham’s core claim was brutally pragmatic: You can declare a right all you want, but unless there is organized power to define it, adjudicate it, and enforce it, it doesn’t actually exist.

In other words:
Rights are not self-executing.
Rights without enforcement are moral sentiments, not social facts.
What makes a right real is not the declaration but the machinery behind it.

The United States ended slavery in 1865, but it was not until the 1960s that it built - and enforced - the institutions required for equal citizenship. Progress stalled not for lack of moral clarity, but because power was ceded to those determined to preserve the old order. It was a century between winning the Civil War and winning the fight for civil rights.

Declaring a right is an act of imagination; enforcing it is an act of institution-building. Without the second, the first is just rhetoric. Put differently, rights are not wishes; they are policies backed by power.

Culture defines what we believe should be a right.
Institutions determine whether that belief becomes reliable reality.
Entrepreneurship is the work of building the scaffolding that makes that reality durable.

Each line answers a different question:
Culture answers: What do we owe one another, what norms should we share?
Institutions answer: Can we count on this tomorrow?
Entrepreneurship answers: Who builds the systems that make it so?

Nothing is redundant. Nothing can be skipped.

Many contemporary arguments collapse everything into culture:
“Change hearts”
“Win the narrative”
“Shift norms”

Others collapse everything into policy:
“Pass a law”
“Enforce a rule”
“Fix the system”

But both are incomplete alone.

Culture without institutions is aspiration.
Institutions without culture are brittle and might be ignored.
Entrepreneurship is the missing middle that translates between them.

Rights begin as cultural commitments—and only endure when someone builds the institutions to carry them forward.

The Difference Between a Conservative and A Fascist

There is a difference between a liberal and a communist and a difference between a conservative and a fascist. If you voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, you're probably a conservative. If you voted for Donald Trump in 2024, you're probably a fascist.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

A Tentative Theory About 20th Century Germany and the US and the Impact of Conscious Social Change on Entrepreneurship

Germany went through multiple, unmistakably distinct phases in the 20th century—imperial, Nazi, occupied, divided East/West, and reunified liberal democracy. The United States changed profoundly too, but in a way that more often felt continuous: less externally imposed, less punctuated by regime replacement, and easier to narrate as organic evolution.
I think we could argue that Germany is more aware that it is constructed, that things could be very different, and that the US is more forgetful of its past. In Germany norms changed abruptly. In the US, they seemed to evolve more organically. In the U.S., many ruptures were narrated as fulfillment (continuity with founding ideals), which keeps “constructedness” less visible.

I'll offer the tentative theory that the US makes it easier for entrepreneurial imagination to flourish but in Germany entrepreneurial efforts might be safer. Put differently, entrepreneurial imagination flourishes more easily in societies that “forget” (where norms feel flexible), but it flourishes more safely and scalably in societies that “know they’re constructed” (where people can redesign rules deliberately). Strong institutions can increase safety and scalability while still reducing the rate of deviation or entrepreneurship. 

Entrepreneurial imagination needs two permissions. First, the cultural permission to deviate—to try something strange without being socially exiled. That’s why looser cultures often produce more startups and experimentation. But imagination also needs a second permission: the institutional permission to scale—rules that make trust, contracts, and cooperation reliable. Without that, entrepreneurship may be abundant but not especially productive. The sweet spot is a society loose enough to try and self-aware enough to redesign the rules so the good experiments can compound.

The practical implication is that entrepreneurial societies need to build institutional literacy: the ability to change rules deliberately without breaking the hidden load-bearing norms. Looseness produces ideas; constructedness produces guardrails. Progress needs both—permission to deviate, and the capacity to institutionalize what works.

Trust and Innovation - The Value of CEO Trust

Research using CEO turnovers and a trust proxy based on culturally inherited “generalized trust” finds that more trusting CEOs foster more exploratory R&D—showing up as ~6% more patents and higher patent quality—consistent with employees feeling safer taking risks.
Raising CEO trust by ~11 percentage points (for example: Greek-American → English-American average trust difference) corresponds to about a 6.3% increase in patents filed, roughly ~1 additional patent per year for the average firm, estimated at ~$3M in additional value. [ source: https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/.../trust... ]

Photo from yesterday as we drove out of the neighborhood. Spectacular sky.

Harper's Reports - 92 Percent of Investment Driven by Data Centers & How Credit Card Debt is Increasing Divorce Rates

From Harper's Magazine

Estimated percentage of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 that was driven by investment in data centers : 92

    [January 2026 • Source: Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School (Cambridge, Mass.)]

Percentage of American couples who got divorced in 2023 who said that credit-card debt was partly to blame : 29

Of those who got divorced in 2025 : 42

    [January 2026 • Source: Debt.com (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)]

Source:
https://harpers.org/harpers-index/?issue_month=01&issue_year=2026