27 September 2012

Finally: Net Job Gains During Obama Administration

Obama just reached a hugely symbolic milestone.

In Obama's first 12 months in office, the economy lost 4.2 million jobs. To put that in perspective, the economy under Reagan had created only 4.0 million jobs at this point in his presidency. Just to break even, the economy under Obama would have to create more jobs in less than 3 years than Reagan's economy did in nearly 4. It now has.

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (find them at bls.gov) announced that they'd under-reported job gains by 386,000 for the period between April 2011 and March 2012. These 386,000 additional jobs finally put the job gains under Obama's administration into positive territory, something that was hardly guaranteed before the November election. Even more impressive, the number of government jobs was revised downwards by 67,000 and the number of private sector jobs was revised upwards by 453,000.

Here's how Obama's numbers compare to every president since Nixon. This table includes total jobs lost / gained from a president's first full month in office through August of the fourth year, jobs reported in millions. As you can see, Obama is in positive territory, even if barely.

Administration
Jobs Created  Thru Aug of 4th Year
(millions)
Clinton
10.4
Carter
9.4
Nixon
4.7
Reagan
4.0
HW Bush
1.7
Obama
0.1
GW Bush
-0.8

But once the first year is discounted as inherited rather than a reflection of one's own policies, Obama's numbers look nearly as good as Reagan's, which isn't bad for coming off of the most severe recession since the Great Depression.

Administration
Jobs Created From Year 2 Thru Aug of 4th Year
(millions)
Clinton
7.6
Carter
5.5
Reagan
4.5
Obama
4.4
Nixon
3.0
GW Bush
1.0
HW Bush
-0.3


There are two more monthly jobs reports that have the potential to make or break Obama's campaign, even though they won't change his place on this list (except for potentially passing Reagan). But for the first time since he took office, no one can accurately claim that there are fewer Americans working than when Obama was sworn in. And that's not just good for him. It's good news for anyone who believes that such milestones can influence investors and consumer confidence.

No comments: