fivethirtyeight projects Trump's odds of winning California at about 1%. And yet, Trump is investing in California, which is a silly move politically given he has limited funds. Meanwhile, he's not really campaigning like he should in states like Arizona, New Mexico and even Utah, which could vote Democrat for the first time in decades. It makes no sense for a candidate trying to get enough electoral votes to waste time and money on California and to ignore states that have traditionally gone Republican. It makes a lot of sense, though, if this is a marketing campaign and not a political campaign. California's economy is the sixth largest in the world. New Mexico is a tiny market. If you're trying to inflate your brand and net worth, it makes sense to focus on California and to ignore New Mexico.
Today, the FBI announced that there was nothing criminal in Clinton's handling of her email. Trump could have kept his supporters agitated about this but instead he announces at a rally today that Saddam Hussein was really good with terrorists, was really good for the Middle East. It's like every week (every other day?) he feels obligated to say or tweet at least one thing that will ensure that reasonable voters turn from him.
If he wanted to win the presidency, so much of what he says and does is just stupid. If he wanted to win a ratings bonanza and all of the profits that come with that - everything he does is brilliant. I'm open to the possibility that he's an idiot savant who is brilliant at getting media attention but is an idiot when it comes to actual policies or even national politics. I am also open to the possibility that he's not nearly as dumb as the many Americans who think that he's actually running an election campaign instead of a marketing campaign. And that campaign he's already won.