09 November 2016

Confusion About Probabilities and An Alternate Universe

Fivethirtyeight put Donald Trump's odds at about 29%. Today, so many people are shocked because the odds were in Clinton's favor.

What does 29% probability mean? It means that if the universe were to suddenly diverge into 1,000 different universes, in 290 of those Trump would be president. We might personally be shocked at this but there is nothing shocking about a 29% probability coming true. We just ended up in the wrong universe. Even if Clinton had won, there would have been 290 parallel universes in which she'd lost. If you won the lottery, it is still true that the odds were a million to one before you won. The odds weren't wrong, you just beat them.

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