29 June 2024

2024 Lost Perspective in Politics

History books in 50 years:

One candidate had tried to violently overthrow democracy when he lost his last election, shrugged his shoulders at the mob's attempt to assassinate his VP, was found guilty of 32 felony counts, told NATO allies he would do nothing to stop Putin from invading their countries and proposed tariff policies that would cause inflation to surge, and only gained an endorsement from 4 of the 44 cabinet members from his presidency.

The other candidate looked old and didn't finish a few sentences in a debate.
Pundits across the spectrum called for the other candidate to drop out of the race.

24 June 2024

Mellon's $50 Million MAGA Donation Sets New Record for Single Donation to a Political Campaign

Andrew Mellon, a financier who served as Treasury Secretary, faced investigation by the Roosevelt administration for alleged tax evasion starting in 1933. Mellon had a vast collection of art. For years, after his tax bill was calculated, Mellon would “donate” art to a nonprofit institution he had formed, a donation each year equal in value to his tax bill. The art would not move, most continuing to hang in one of his homes. By the time of the trial, he had donated some $40 million worth of art, yet he had done nothing to suggest that the paintings would be used for public good.
In 1936, amidst the scrutiny, Mellon announced his plan to donate his collection to the nation, and he provided funds for a national gallery. This donation led to the establishment of the National Gallery of Art, which opened on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., in 1941. Mellon's collection formed a significant part of the museum's initial holdings.

Related, Timothy Mellon - an heir of Andrew Mellon’s – recently made the largest political donation on record - $50 million to Trump’s campaign through the MAGA PAC. No word as to whether any art was included.

18 June 2024

Parenting, Politics, and Stages of Development

The actual meaning of the word parent evolves all the time. The parents of an infant, a kindergartener, and a teenager have vastly different responsibilities. There are a number of ways to succeed or mess up as a parent but one sure way to mess up as a parent is to master what it means to parent, say, a 9-month old and then never change your behavior towards the child even as they grow older. It would be a disaster to parent a toddler as if they were 15 or a teenager as if they were a toddler.


I think something very similar is true of politics and policy with evolving economies. What makes for great policy during a time when 90% of your population is farming is very different from what makes for great policy when you're in an industrial or information economy. Originalists who seem to dominate the Supreme Court and have really robust representation in Congress are the folks who insist that what made you a great parent of a toddler is just what will make a teenager love you.






13 June 2024

Income Tax and The Contrast Between the Republican Party's First President (Lincoln) and Last President (Trump)

Trump has suggested that he could get rid of income tax and simply replace it with tariffs. As Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post points out, 40% of Americans don't pay income tax (and some of them actually "pay" a negative income tax) but everyone would pay tariffs. (Tariffs are not charged to foreign producers. They are paid by any American who buys an import, from an avocado to a smart phone.)

I've argued before that Lincoln was the first Republican president and Trump will be the last. This policy proposal is just one of many reasons why.

Trump was born rich and thinks that government does too much for the poor. Lincoln was born poor and thought that the government could do so much more for the poor. Lincoln initiated the income tax and sweeping public investments; Trump may end both.

The Democrats dominated American politics from the time of Jefferson to Lincoln, from 1801 to 1861. One of their core beliefs was that government should not engage in any investments - not roads or canals or schools or research. Everything should depend on individual rather than government initiative. It is weirdly congruent with the philosophy of a lot of conservatives, libertarians and Republicans today. That is, the modern Republican Party is a lot like the old Democratic Party. The one presidential portrait Trump hung in the Oval Office was of Jackson - the Democratic president who vetoed the national bank that Lincoln did so much to resurrect.

Lincoln was a strong proponent of government investment to create more affluence and opportunity for ordinary Americans. He signed legislation that created Morrill Land-Grant Colleges - creating a list of state universities that includes Iowa State, Michigan State, Pennsylvania State, Texas A&M, University of California, Berkeley, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and University of Wisconsin-Madison - more than 100 universities.
Lincoln grew up poor - born in a one-room log cabin (not a one-bedroom but one-room) and had only one year of formal education. He strongly believed that government should invest to improve the lives of everyone - particularly children born in poverty.

What were the result of Lincoln's investments in the country? During the time of Lincoln's administration and the decades after, the US economy grew faster than any other economy in the world and faster than any economy had in the history of the world.

Lincoln's policies faced fierce opposition from Democrats who thought government had no role in making investments like transcontinental railroads or universities or regulating banks and financial markets. Democrats who thought that the federal government could get all the financing it needed from ... tariffs.

Lincoln's most significant act was freeing slaves but that was almost incidental to his broader vision of creating an industrial economy and opportunity. Lincoln thought that more could be done to create opportunity for everyone - particularly the poor and enslaved.

Unlike some of my liberal friends, I don't think billionaires are a sign that the economy is broken. I think its awesome. Unlike my conservative friends who support Trump, I don't look at current reality and say, "What the rich need are more tax cuts and what the poor need is less welfare." I think that's demonstrably absurd. (Rather than get rid of income tax I think we should begin wealth tax.) At least as much as in the time of Lincoln we can and should tax the rich to fund investments in the poor. But of course, no contemporary Republican would agree with Lincoln's economic policies today. It's not Lincoln's party anymore. It's Trump's. And he has actually resurrected the party of Andrew Jackson - and is putting the final knife into the party of Abraham Lincoln.

06 June 2024

No D-Day with the Donald

Before American troops ever landed in Europe, FDR had said, "We must be the great arsenal of democracy. For us, this is an emergency as serious as war itself. We must apply ourselves to our task with the same resolution, the same sense of urgency, the same spirit of patriotism and sacrifice as we would show were we at war."

In his radio address to the nation on the evening of June 6, 1944 - 80 years ago today on D-Day - Roosevelt led the nation in prayer. Here’s an excerpt from that address about American soldiers and our allies:
"They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and good will among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home."

Putin is the first European leader to lead an invasion of a neighboring country since Hitler. Here's what Trump said to European allies concerned about Putin's invasion of Ukraine and his threat to other European neighbors.
"No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Putin and the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want."

Imagine WWII with Trump in the White House instead of FDR. There would be no D-Day celebration today. Hitler would have been unstopped. Stop pretending that there is anything normal or noble about Donald Trump.

04 June 2024

Women Will Decide the 2024 Election

In 2020, if only women voted, Biden would have won the states 5 to 1 and the electoral college nearly 3 to 1.

Women. You will decide this election.