Now That We've Convinced You That All Politicians Are Liars, We'd Like to Offer You the Best Liar - a Really Terrific Liar

Republicans: I'd like to borrow the country.
Democrats: Again? It didn't turn out so well last time when you borrowed it.
R: As if you're any better.
D: Well you did total the country, the global economy, and leave the Middle East in turmoil.
R: None of that was my fault.

Today - 26 September - Donald Trump leads in the polls.

I do think that one thing Republicans have succeeded in doing is in making cynicism about government seem like sophistication. "All politicians are liars" is a wonderful way to excuse the worst candidates from any responsibility. There is now an argument about whether it matters that a politician repeatedly lies. 

It is an odd place that we've come to. Trump lays out incoherent policy that thumbs its nose at the constitution, expert opinion, and common decency and gets a break because everyone says, "Well, he will never do that." Clinton lays out a coherent policy and gets criticized because, "She will never do that."

Good policy that comes from the same ideological (and literal) family tree as the policy that helped to make the 90s so prosperous is discounted because we can't trust what Clinton is saying. 

Why can't we trust Clinton? Because all politicians are liars.

Bad policy that is inspired by reaction to talk radio and Fox news is discounted because we can't trust what Trump is saying.

Why can't we trust Trump? Because all politicians are liars.

Given all politicians are liars, we don't have to do the hard work of actually thinking about the policy or so-called facts. Instead of using our brains we can just use our guts. 

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Politifact tracks statements made by the candidates, rating them from "pants on fire" to "true." 13% of Clinton's statements earn either a "pants on fire" rating or a simple "false." 13%. Trump? It's 53%. Over half the statements he makes can't be trusted. 

Does TV Give the Edge to Lying Politicians?

In Richard Wiseman's delightful book, Quirkology, he reports on a study on lying. He and a colleague had the British equivalent of Walter Cronkite - Sir Robin Day - conduct two interviews. In one, he told the truth. In the other, a series of lies.

As it turns out, people who watched the interview on TV could discern the version that was a lie only 52% of the time - not much better results than if they'd flipped a coin. But interestingly, 64 of newspaper readers could discern the lie, as could 73 percent of radio listeners. (As it turns out, the classic signs of lying - averting one's gaze and fidgeting more - don't actually predict lies. Vague answers and failure to inject one's self into the story (rarely using "I" for instance) are actually better predictors of lies and listeners not distracted by body language are more apt to detect this.)

Wisemen doesn't pick up on this point, but it seems to me that this has serious implications for our own time. As more people consume media from TV and less from newspapers and radio, we may be more vulnerable to lying politicians. So, next time you're watching a politician speak, you may be best to close your eyes. (And distrust any politician who refuses to do radio interviews.)

[And thanks to my son Blake for the great gift - Wiseman's new book is a fascinating and amusing read.]

Bush's Big Lie

Former White House spokesman Scott McClellan reveals in a new book that Bush asked him to lie about the outing of Valerie Plame. Sadly, Bush wanted McClellan to lie in order to restore his credibility after the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

It would be hard to think of a more poignant symbol of this lost presidency than a lie told to restore credibility. But the real lie of his presidency is not a lie that will be revealed in memoirs. Rather, it's a lie that is always and never mentioned.

One of the first lessons learned studying economics is the lesson of opportuinty cost. Any one thing you choose to do with your time or money comes at the expense of countless other things. If you spend the money on remodeling, you won't have money for a new car. If you spend the evening at the opera, you miss the basketball game.

The big lie that Bush has been telling is that nothing this country could do would better the planet or the lives of Americans more than spending a trillion (or two) in Iraq. The lie McClellan revealed pales in comparison to this. I can think of no bigger lie that Bush could have told. And this is a lie that Bush has never tried to hide. He doesn't even know that it is a lie.