How the Election Could Impact the Stock Market

All the usual caveats apply to this stock market forecast. [which is to say, this is speculation not prophecy]

November could be a tough month for stocks. At the end of this post, I’ll share a tip for those of you who feel like you’ve missed out on the past year’s bull market and are wondering if now’s the time to jump in.

Election Impact on the Market

A Trump Victory: A Trump win could trigger a sell-off due to the potential for aggressive policies like mass deportations and tariffs. Deporting 16 million people would likely reduce GDP, and tariffs would disrupt supply chains and foreign markets critical to major companies like Apple and NVIDIA. Given that these top companies are deeply integrated into a global market, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs would threaten their supply chains and earnings. If the market believes Trump will pursue these policies, it may price in this risk, leading to a drop.

A Harris Victory: Harris’s election, on the other hand, might prompt a temporary sell-off but for different reasons. While she hasn’t proposed wealth or estate taxes explicitly, some investors might anticipate future tax changes and choose to lock in gains under the current tax code. However, her policies aren’t expected to disrupt economic fundamentals. Harris advocates for trade continuity, foreign investment, and tax policies favorable to new businesses, suggesting stability for the global brands driving the stock market. Any initial sell-off would likely be short-term.

The Opportunity
Here’s the tip: If Harris is elected, any post-election drop could be a good chance to buy in at a discount, as the long-term trajectory of the market is likely to stay positive. Her policies aim to sustain growth by supporting trade and investment, so a brief sell-off could offer a smart entry point.
If Trump wins, the market will face a different scenario. His policies would likely shift the economy away from the global approach that benefits major corporations. U.S.-based global brands depend on open trade, supply chains, and diverse talent pools, so immigration restrictions and tariffs would put strain on these companies. For investors, this could mean a stagnant or declining market if Trump follows through on his anti-globalization policies, as the values of globally oriented companies could suffer.