Tariffs Seem to Be Driving Layoffs

Nov 25, 2024, ADP "For the four weeks ending November 8, 2025, U.S. private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER)."

Related, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reports:
"Our results suggest that, immediately following an increase in tariff rates, the unemployment rate tends to increase, and inflation tends to fall. This pattern suggests that, at first, the effects of tariffs more closely resemble a negative demand shock—that is, consumers and businesses pull back their spending, which slows economic activity and also slows down inflation. Over time, however, economic activity picks up and inflation increases to a higher rate than would have been the case without the tariff increase."

Put simply, study suggests that tariffs raise unemployment rates and consistent with that, in the last four weeks US private employers are laying off workers rather than hiring. The Fed in SF also note that the data they use does not include tariff shocks as large and sweeping as what Trump has put in place. (The good news being that the courts may yet reverse these, arguing as some do that this decision about tariffs - falling into the category of taxes - is one reserved for Congress.)