1. Trump is the first president to never break 50% approval levels. The majority of Americans have never liked him. It is hard to imagine that a man who has never risen above 44% approval in the last three years is going to shoot up to 49% in the next three days.
2. Yesterday - Friday - the country broke the record for new COVID cases, a record set Thursday that broke the record set Wednesday. Throughout this, Trump has held rallies where he's mocked people who wear masks or take COVID seriously. A recent study concluded that the rallies he's held through 24 Sep have killed 700 people. There are people who think you shouldn't have the option of terminating your pregnancy but do think that your grandma's life should be sacrificed to the right to not wear masks but those people are not a majority. 59% of Americans think the spread of coronavirus is out of control.
3. And speaking of records, the country will set a new record for the number of voters. Might even break the old record by 20 million. A high percentage of old people always vote. This year young people - whose support for Trump runs at about 29% - are voting in large numbers. (What else are they going to do? Go to a rave? The clubs are closed.) Could it be that an economic crisis, protests and a pandemic that kills 800 Americans a day has rallied the country to come show their support for the president? Well, in theory, sure. In reality? I know I have a clear bias but I find it much easier to believe that folks are coming out in record numbers because they've tired of Trump's divisive style and "I take full responsibility, it's not my fault" [actual quote from the last debate, by the way] style of management of the pandemic and economy.
4. Most importantly, a decent portion of Americans are tired of his continual assault on our institutions. Using the police to remove peaceful protestors for a photo op holding a Bible. Pardoning his cronies from felony convictions while calling for the imprisonment of his political opponents, as if we were a banana republic. Calling military people "suckers and losers." And most jarringly, becoming the first president in history to refuse to support a peaceful transfer of power in the event that he'll lose the election. We're so polarized that even something this shocking will only influence one to three percent of Americans but that still changes the election outcome.
So, might Trump win? He might.
Might he lose by double-digits? Yes. And that distinct possibility isn't getting enough attention.
America - with 330 million people - is so many things. It's worth remembering that the same country that (barely) elected Trump (overwhelmingly) elected Obama. Are we incredibly innovative, scientific and inclusive? Yes. Are we incredibly xenophobic, subject to conspiracy theories and resistant to change and progress? Also yes. The choice between these two only requires a shift in the opinion of a few percent of Americans. I suspect that since 2016, though, it is more than just a percent or two of Americans who have changed their opinions.
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