31 March 2026

Americans Do Not Like Trump

The five states that have a net positive approval of Trump have a population of 12.5 million. (Wyoming, Idaho, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Tennessee.)

The two states where his net approval is zero (Oklahoma and Montana) have a population of 5.2 million.

The states in which Trump's net approval rating is negative - reaching as high as negative 44% - have a population of about 324 million, representing nearly 95% of the population of these United States.

Approval levels per The Economist

Americans do not like Trump.



The Deep Roots of Wealth Distribution

There's a play area at SeaWorld — bouncy surface, maybe 50 oversized stuffed shapes scattered around. The kids can't quite figure out what they're for, so rather than build rooms or towers, they just hoard. Forty kids, 50 objects — and four of them have claimed 45.

If you had no economic data but had merely observed this dynamic, you might just be able to predict wealth distribution in these United States.

29 March 2026

Favorite William James' Quotes

Williams James (1842 - 1910) is one of my favorite Americans. Here are some quotes from him that might give you some idea of why.

“My first act of free will shall be to believe in free will.”

“Truth happens to an idea. It becomes true, is made true by events.”

"The faculty of voluntarily bringing back a wandering attention, over and over again, is the very root of judgment, character, and will."

“The world is a pluralism, not a universe.”

"All our life, so far as it has definite form, is but a mass of habits — practical, emotional, and intellectual — systematically organized for our weal or woe, and bearing us irresistibly toward our destiny."

“If this life be not a real fight, in which something is eternally gained for the universe by success, it is no better than a game of private theatricals.”

“The moral test of a civilization is how it treats its weakest members.”

“Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.”

“Believe that life is worth living, and your belief will help create the fact.”

"The greatest revolution of our generation is the discovery that human beings, by changing the inner attitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives."

"The greatest use of a life is to spend it on something that will outlast it."

27 March 2026

Economic Market Data for No Kings Protest March 2026

The two most defining markets for how Americans judge any administration are the stock market and labor markets. Not only is Trump engaged in self-enrichment at a scale never before witnessed by any American president but the performance of these two markets is miserable under his presidency.


This first graph shows the average monthly job creation rate for each president since Jimmy Carter. In this you can see that only Trump's previous term and George W. Bush's administration presided over worse job markets.


Stock market performance is - prior to market opening Monday morning 30 March 2026 - the worst of any president since George W. Bush's administration.





Trump's understanding of how the economy works is not just deeply flawed - it is demonstrably flawed. 

26 March 2026

Action Figure

As a little boy, he'd dreamed of becoming a superhero but Bobble head Bob's unfortunate condition became the inspiration for a very different kind of action figure.

Baseball is back.




Stock Market Movement

Every stock sale involves one person convinced this is a good time to sell and another convinced this is a good time to buy. Market equilibrium depends not just on differing opinions but perfectly opposing ones.

The NASDAQ is down 6.66% YTD.

Investors agree on the number. They just have very different ideas about what happens next.

The Yin, the Yang, and the Dow.




Dow. Such a precarious index. Just one key stroke away from down.

24 March 2026

Victor Hugo on an Idea Whose Time Has Come

"There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and that is an idea whose time has come," 
- French poet and novelist Victor Hugo.

Historian Barbara Fields On Frustration with Congress and Reality

"The criticism of Congress that says, in essence, Congress has a way of making situations complicated, of making it harder to do things of-- of making it impossible to move in a streamlined fashion. This is a way of saying that democracy is a pain in the neck, which, of course, it is. And that style of criticism of Congress is not so much a criticism of the individuals who are there now, many of whom deserve even more criticism than they have received so much as it is a criticism of the whole idea of a government by as well as for the people. And that is a criticism of democracy. I wonder whether the ideal of democracy lives in a real sense in our country today."

- Historian Barbara Fields from Columbia University in Ken Burns' documentary, Congress

Dictatorship remains alluring even to people who should know better because it is so much less complicated than democracy — with all its debates and divisions. But reality, too, is complicated. The desire for a strong leader stems from fantasizing that reality could be as simple as our opinions of it. Democracy is messy, contentious, and frustrating in no small part because reality is.

One Way Jensen Huang's Token Economy Will Accelerate the Emergence of the Entrepreneurial Economy

Jensen Huang predicts that his employees will have a salary (e.g., $300k) and a budget for tokens (e.g., $150k). These tokens will be used at the employees discretion to create programs, machines, processes and what - in my mind - is essentially a business.

At that point, on a scale from 1 to 10 where a 1 is an employee filling a clearly defined role and a 10 is an entrepreneur who might get financing from elsewhere but is launching a business ... we are entering a world in which the 1 to 10 score for the typical "employee" is steadily moving from 1 to 10 on the scale. Essentially morphing into a network of entrepreneurs rather than a pool of employees.

What Huang is describing dissolves one of the most fundamental distinctions in economic history — the one between labor and capital. The employee has always sold time and skill. The entrepreneur has always deployed capital to organize resources toward an opportunity. Those were different roles, different risk profiles, different relationships to the organization.

The token budget changes that equation structurally. The employee is no longer just selling time — they're deploying capital, making allocation decisions, building things that have a life beyond their individual effort. The line between "I work here" and "I'm building something here" starts to blur and then disappear.

The movement is unlikely to be gradual — it's likely to feel slow and then sudden, the way most threshold shifts do. A few early adopters figure out how to use token budgets entrepreneurially, produce dramatically outsized results, and then the organizational norm shifts rapidly toward expecting that. The employee who treats their token budget like an expense account rather than a venture fund will look as anachronistic as the secretary who refused to learn the word processor.

This will become a popular mechanism by which the entrepreneurial economy becomes universal rather than exceptional. Entrepreneurship stops being a personality type or a risk tolerance and becomes a basic competency — the way literacy did, the way numeracy did.

Which means the institution that figures out how to cultivate entrepreneurial judgment at scale — not just tolerate it in outliers — becomes the dominant institution of the next economy.

Huey Long - Smartest Lunatic Ever

When a fellow congressman told Louisianan Huey Long "You are the smartest lunatic I have ever seen in my whole life," Long took it as a compliment. Arthur Schlesinger said of Long, "He was a comedian, of sorts, but a comedian of sinister purposes."
From Ken Burns documentary on Huey Long.

23 March 2026

Money Saving Tip


Here's a money-saving tip. Next time you see an ad for an enticing product, just re-enact the ad. Skip the product altogether and go straight for the joy the product delivers.

"Should we go shopping?"
"No. Just smile more."

22 March 2026

The Barber's Poll

Talked to a friend of mine who is a barber and asked him what was the topic of conversation of late. He's a very easy going guy who doesn't volunteer his opinions much but is instead more inclined to listen.

He offered two things he's hearing about frequently. The Iranian war. Apparently it makes no sense to anyone who mentions it. And the job market. People cannot find work.

Not exactly the equivalent of a poll but ... it is something. And makes me think that perhaps there should be an informal poll taken of barbers and manicurists to get their sense of what is on Americans' minds.

21 March 2026

The Rise and Fall of Civilizations

The most dangerous internal contradiction any civilization can have isn't inequality or political conflict per se — it's the loss of the capacity to imagine and attempt its own transformation.

There is a crucial tension between learning how to live life as past generations have and learning to imagine life as only future generations can live it.

Tired, Wired

Tired: telephone.
Wired: teleporter.

19 March 2026

Jensen Huang's Token Economy and Possible Consequences

Jensen Huang - founder and CEO of Nvidia - has been speaking passionately about the token economy. He sees AI as fundamental to the future economy. Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world, in history. Just so you know where I'm coming from, I think Nvidia's value is going to rise dramatically over the next 5 years. One way to think of the token economy is this.

From Request to Token to Output

A user types a prompt. That text is broken into tokens — roughly, fragments of words — and fed into a model. The model, which is essentially a vast map of statistical relationships built from training data, predicts the next most likely token, then the next, then the next, until it produces a complete response. Nvidia's GPUs are the engines that make this prediction process fast enough to be useful at scale. This is what Huang means by the token economy — every inference (every AI response to every request) is a stream of tokens, and the world is generating an almost incomprehensible number of them.

The Broader Economic Flow

Perceived demand: A customer wants something — a product, an answer, a service, a piece of code, a diagnosis.
AI as coordinator: Rather than a human routing that request through an organization, AI interprets it, matches it to available resources, capacity, inventory, or knowledge, and either fulfills it directly or orchestrates the humans and systems that will.
Production or retrieval: AI either generates the output itself (a document, an image, an analysis) or directs physical or human systems to produce it.
Delivery and feedback: The customer receives and responds; AI captures that signal and refines future responses.

Where precisely does AI fit?
Everywhere in that chain except the underlying human desire that starts it and the physical reality that ends it. The want is still human. The product — a meal, a drug, a manufactured part — still has to exist in the world. But everything in between — interpretation, routing, coordination, generation, quality checking, personalization — is increasingly where AI lives.
Huang's insight is that this middle layer, which used to be mostly human labor and organizational overhead, is becoming a token stream. And Nvidia sells the engines that run it.

The human layer: Perceived desire on one end, satisfied (or disappointed) desire on the other. This is where meaning lives. A person wants something; a person receives something; a person feels the gap or the fulfillment. Irreducibly human.

The coordination layer: Everything in between. Interpretation, routing, production, delivery, feedback. This is the token economy — the vast, accelerating machinery of turning want into have. AI doesn't create desire and doesn't feel satisfaction. It lives entirely in this middle space, and it is transforming that space almost beyond recognition.

This framing implicitly raises a key question about AI's limits: it can compress and optimize the coordination layer almost without bound, but it cannot manufacture desire at one end or genuine satisfaction at the other. Those remain stubbornly, essentially human.

Which may be why the most enduring economic question in an AI-saturated world isn't about efficiency — it's about what people will actually want when the cost of coordination approaches zero.

So where does desire - the catalyst for all this - originate?

Advertising and marketing have always been in the business of manufacturing or shaping desire — making you want something you didn't know you wanted, or want it more urgently than you otherwise would have. AI doesn't invent that dynamic, but it could perfect it in ways that are qualitatively different from a Super Bowl ad or even targeted Facebook posts.

The concerning version: AI that knows you well enough — from your behavior, your language, your rhythms — to identify latent desires before you've consciously formed them, nudge them into felt wants, coordinate production to meet them, deliver them, and close the loop. All without meaningful human involvement at any stage.

At that point the two bookends to this process — perceived desire and realized desire — are no longer quite as "irreducibly human" one might suspect. They're still experienced by humans, but they may be increasingly manufactured and managed by AI.

Which raises a question that is less economic than philosophical: if the desire was seeded, the product generated, and the satisfaction engineered — what exactly was the human contributing? The experiencing of it, perhaps. Consciousness as the last remaining irreducibly human input.

That's not entirely new — culture and commerce have always shaped desire. But the scale, precision, and speed AI brings to that shaping is new enough that it might be a difference in kind rather than just degree.

One troubling possibility in this? We're no longer steering this vehicle, this economy ... we're just riding in the Ferris Wheel of desire and desire fulfillment. This has the potential to move us from life as a Jungian search for meaning into a life of Skinner's stimulus and response.

Jung's project was essentially about the human as meaning-maker — the psyche reaching toward individuation, toward a self that is authored rather than merely conditioned. The Ferris Wheel image captures something that feels like movement and experience, even pleasure, but has no destination and no agency. You didn't choose the arc. You're just on it.

Skinner's world, by contrast, has no self to author anything. Just organisms responding to stimuli, reinforced or extinguished by their environment. Desire and satisfaction as a loop, not a journey. Which is precisely what a perfectly optimized AI economy might produce — and, notably, would look like flourishing from the outside. People getting what they want, efficiently, continuously. The metrics would be excellent.

Jensen on the token economy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU_TIDaixqM

18 March 2026

Fed Chair Powell Talks to A Startling First in our Nation's History of Job Growth

"Effectively, there is a zero job creation equilibrium in the private sector — which we've never had in our nation's history." — Jerome Powell, today's press conference.

For the first time in 250 years, the number of jobs we need to create to keep up with growth in the labor force is zero. None.

This reflects two converging trends. First, the birthrate and retirement rate have been drawing closer together over the last two decades, shrinking the growth in the number of new workers. Second, between deportations and the slowdown in immigration, the labor force is no longer growing the way it has for 250 years.

Tesla Over-priced, Nvidia Under-priced

Price / Earnings Ratios:
Nvidia 37
Tesla 370

ONE of the initiatives within Nvidia is the application of AI to self-driving cars, and in terms of market potential for Nvidia that is likely much closer to 2% than 20% of their future revenues. And - in my opinion - promises to be more transformative as a technology and how broadly it can be applied. (Tesla is unlikely to license their self-driving technology to other automakers but Nvidia definitely will, could even become the standard across brands ... and of course that would be just one of their many, many products and services.)

17 March 2026

Obsessed About Time Travel

He realized, lying on his deathbed, that he had wasted his whole life in the lab chasing a time travel machine. It made him wish he could go back — live his life again, only this time spend less of it obsessing about time travel and more of it traipsing through forests, walking beaches, gazing at art, enjoying friends...

If only he had a —

Believing Impossible Things

"There's no use trying," Alice said; "one can't believe impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

Relationships are Like Tennis

Relationships are like tennis. They start with love - love and then people start making mistakes and keeping score.

16 March 2026

Time Travel First, Direction Next

Idea for a time travel movie in which the main character wastes all his naturally gifted going forward time trying to devise a means to go backwards in time.

I only wish I had come up with the idea earlier.

Instead of a Fortune Cookie Slip ...

“This is wildly inappropriate! Whose idea of a joke was this?”
He shouted across the restaurant, holding up the offending fortune cookie slip.
“What’s wrong?” the waiter asked, rushing over with genuine concern.
“Who prints this kind of thing on a fortune cookie?”
The waiter snatched the slip, read it, and promptly blushed.
“Oh no. I’m terribly sorry, sir. You’ve received one of our… Freudian slips by mistake.”
"How does this happen?"
"Well, the typical explanation is that it expresses something you scarcely admit to yourself. It may reveal deeper ..."
"I didn't ask for after-dinner therapy!"
"Does this mean that you won't be giving me a tip, sir?"
Diner looks aghast. "You do know this isn't helping."
Waiter reads the Freudian slip again, blushes and says, "Quite right, sir. I can see how my question just made things worse."

The Republican Party's Notions of What Government Can Do

One of many things that baffles me about the Republican Party (and this has been true since at least the time of George W. - possibly Reagan) is that they think it is beyond the scope of government to lift a child out of poverty but that a military strike will transform a foreign autocracy into a modern democracy.

15 March 2026

Names for Money

Light economic history.

Dollar is slang for a Federal Reserve Note.
A buck is slang for a dollar.
Moola is slang for a buck.
Filthy lucre is the point at which slang tips into cursing.

A Multi-Faith T-Shirt

It seems possible that a "w/ Jesus in my heart & Buddha in my belly, all I do is sing Allah-la-la-la" t-shirt has global market potential. It is also possible that it would simply be a product that would sell poorly everywhere and not just in one region.

12 March 2026

Francis Fukuyama on the War Against Iran

Francis Fukuyama, regarding the Trump administration's war against Iran.

"The Trump administration is behaving as if it were born yesterday, innocent of the accumulated understanding of regional politics, and the sources of earlier American policy failures. Indeed, it has expressed contempt for experts coming out of the administration and has excluded them. ... Instead it has relied on a sycophantic circle of loyalists, none of whom are likely to give the president reliable or realistic assessments about how to move forward. Consequently, the administration is making it up from day to day. ... The world has become a most dangerous place because the world has come under the power of a 10 year old boy."

Stock Market Performance Under Recent Presidents

 Well, at least the MAGA boys can console themselves by the fact that their boy is doing better than Carter or Bush 2.
So far.



Self Publishing in Multiple Locations

The good news is that he finally got his self-help book published.

The bad news is that it was picked up by a fortune cookie company.

His "book" was released in serial form — installments distributed across different restaurants, on different days, in different cities, in no particular order. Fittingly, it was a book on the power of networking, and recipients were encouraged to find each other and piece together what they'd learned. Of course, since those instructions were also released in random installments, it took quite some time before anyone knew this.

He took some comfort in the fact that his latest book had, technically, sold millions of copies. The five-star reviews were cryptic but numerous and often included references to bok choy, noodles and dim sum.

09 March 2026

On Mongrels and America

"Since races do not exist - though racism, damnably, does - mongrelism is our common lot. It may be a bitter one, as in the case of Merle Oberon, not altogether benign in such an instance as Queen Victoria, or fecund, as in that of Pushkin, but whether we want to accept it or not, we are all mongrels."

— Angus Calder

Merle Oberon (1911–1979) was a glamorous Hollywood and British film star of the 1930s and 1940s, born in Bombay to a mixed South Asian and European family. In the racial climate of early Hollywood, this background would likely have ended her career before it began.

So her studio invented a different woman entirely. Born in Tasmania, they said. European parents. Clean, simple, acceptable.

She spent decades performing two roles: the characters onscreen, and the invented self she wore everywhere else. Even close colleagues had no idea. The concealment was total, and it held.

Alexander Pushkin (1799–1837) is widely considered the founder of modern Russian literature — the writer who gave the Russian language its modern form, who shaped what Russians understood themselves to be. His great-grandfather, Abram Petrovich Gannibal, was an African child, likely from what is now Cameroon or Eritrea, brought to Europe as a slave, then adopted and educated at the court of Peter the Great, eventually becoming a military engineer and general. That ancestry runs directly into Pushkin, into the poems and stories that Russia called its own.

The nation's purest cultural touchstone. Mixed all the way down.

This is what Calder is pointing at: the things a culture holds up as essentially, irreducibly itself — its founding literature, its iconic faces — are rarely what they appear to be. Purity is almost always a retrospective fiction. The real thing, the living creative thing, tends to be a collision. Part this, part that, and then whatever strange third thing emerges from the two meeting.

Rock and roll is the American version of this story. It came from the collision of country and blues — the whitest and the blackest streams in American music running together until something neither tradition could have produced on its own came out the other side. Still restless. Still unfinished. Still, somehow, arresting.

That's America, really. Not pure. Never pure. Just the ongoing collision — of people, genes, languages, sounds, habits and tics from everywhere — producing something that keeps mutating and hasn't settled yet.

Calder called it our common lot. It might also be our best quality.

08 March 2026

Odd Thoughts on a Sunday

"Figure out who you are and then do it on purpose."
- Dolly Parton

*****
The first priority on your to do list should be doing what no one else can, doing the tasks that uniquely define you - and are uniquely defined by you.

*****

Conspiracy theories are just screenplays that writers couldn't get turned into a movie. They're fiction, but they're not particularly good fiction.

*****

"My job is to, quite simply, create the conditions whereby you [the employee] can do your life's work."
- Jensen Huang, CEO and co-founder of NVDIA, now the world's most valuable company

****

Possible futures:
In the future, AI will present all clothing ads to you as you in that clothing. Previously, there was confusion between how good the clothes look on beautiful, handsome models and how good they look on you. Once that confusion is behind us, clothing sales will plummet. One might think this is incentive enough not to run such ads but it'll increase the online population as people choose to stay virtual rather than step outside to be seen as their less than ideal selves.

06 March 2026

Labor and Financial Markets Roughly One Year Into Trump's Second Term - Not Impressive

A few items of note.

On a positive note, the job creation rate since Trump took office is still positive. However, in 5 of his first 12 months - including last month - the economy lost jobs. (For comparison, in each of the 48 months of Biden's presidency, the economy created - and never once lost - jobs.)
I'm sure it's all just a coincidence. Or misunderstanding.




The stock market is still up since Trump was elected. In fact, it is doing even better than it did during Bush 2's time in office.




04 March 2026

Stochastic Parrots and Politicians - Kensy Cooperrider's Conversation with Melanie Mitchell on How Metaphors for AI Might Shape Its Direction

Just listened to Kensy Cooperrider's latest episode with Dr. Melanie Mitchell on how the metaphors we use for AI shape our understanding, use and development of AI. It's fascinating because it is a reminder that AI is so often discussed as if it were a storm brewing off the coast of Florida and we don't know whether it will become heavy rain or violent waves and wind. And it seems to me that the metaphors we use really can shape how we shape AI itself.One of metaphors that has been often used with AI is "Stochastic Parrots." As Google AI itself describes it, this ... metaphor suggests that while LLMs can create fluent, human-like text, they lack true understanding, reasoning, or consciousness. LLMs are "parroting" patterns found in their training data.

Essentially, this metaphor suggests that AI doesn't really have any model of reality but instead is simply choosing what word to generate next based on probabilities found in texts it has (to use another metaphor) digested.

I think it's fascinating and couldn't help but wonder - for a brief moment - whether Trump - who seems so disconnected from the real world and consequences - might be thought of as a stochastic politician. But I digress.

Kensy's latest episode on "7 metaphors for AI" can be found here:
  
https://disi.org/seven-metaphors-for-ai/

02 March 2026

If You Could Time Travel Only Once, Would You?

You can time travel either into the past or future by up to 200 years. But you can only travel once. Whenever you land, that is your new time.

Do you do it? And wherever you'd land, which time would you choose?

I would -- as I am nearing the end of life -- choose to travel 100 years into the future. Worst case, I get to see what life is like then and die shortly afterward, as I was going to. Best case, life is enormously better and they chuckle that I was about to die from such trivial causes and extend my life by another 30 years in a new, strange time.

What about you?