If Trump's political career had ended on January 6th when his people stormed the Capitol to halt the election, the Republican Party might have shared political power in DC for decades more. That is, if the GOP's response to Trump had been led by Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger rather than folks like Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell, the GOP would have had a chance to share power for another generation.
Given it did not, Trump has ended the GOP's influence as a national party. Having three times nominated him as the head of its party, the GOP's brand and philosophy is entangled with Trump's for the next generation. That will end its prospects for holding national power for decades. If it renounces Trump, it will lose his hardcore supporters, which will bar it from national victory. If it continues to praise Trump, it will lose the former Republican voters who are now so disillusioned by the man.
Given how out of synch Trump's worldview is with reality, there were three possibilities when he ran in 2016.
1. He could have destroyed his own political career in that run, dismissed as less a politician than a personality, someone closer to Rush Limbaugh than Ronald Reagan.
2. He could have be in power long enough to expose his worst policies and impulses, destroying the Republican Party brand as those policies made America worse, not greater, by which point Trump's reputation and the Republican brand were hopelessly entangled. Evidence for this would include Texas, which experienced a huge shift from red to blue in last week's election.
3. He could have permanently changed America, destroying its place as the hub of a vibrant global economy and a model of liberal democracy.
Ruin was inevitable. The only question is at which level: personal, political party or national. He seems to have ruined the Republican Party. I'm optimistic that he hasn't ruined the country yet, even if it will need repairs and remodeling once he is out of office.
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