Markets will eventually come back from last year's dismal performance. For those of you tempted by bitcoin rather than stocks, here are some things to consider.
One, bitcoin can never scale as a medium of exchange. It is scarcely able to process the number of transactions you'd need for a shopping mall much less a national or global economy.
The VISA network can process 24,000 transactions each second.
Bitcoin can process 5 to 7. It is not designed to support actual transactions and will never become a widely used medium of exchange.
So if it is not viable as a currency, can it be considered an asset? No.
If you buy a share of stock, you get a share of its future earnings, or profits. Bitcoin has no profits, represents no claim on any asset or wealth.
If you buy a bond, you are buying a right to interest payments and / or principle on debt held by a government or company. Bitcoin offers no interest payments or future payoff.
Assets have underlying value. Bitcoin does not.
Well, is it not - at least - a form of money or legal tender?
Again, no. The lowly dollar is legal tender. What does that mean? US dollars have written on them, "This note is legal tender for all debts public and private." If I owe you $1,000 for the really fancy shoes I bought from you, you are obligated to accept my $1,000 in currency or VISA transaction. It is the law. No one is obligated to accept your bitcoin for payment any more than they're obligated to accept a shiny rock or curious leaf you found on your walk.
Bitcoin is not designed to support transactions and thus replace currency, is not an asset and is not fiat money people are obligated to accept.
And finally - most importantly - it does nothing to move us towards a better future. One of the things I love about stocks is that I'm buying a future. 3d printing could enable companies to manufacture one custom part as cheaply as they might manufacture one of millions of the same part. That is a very cool future to buy.
mRNA promises not only vaccines for new viruses but the treatment of genetic diseases, cancer immunotherapy, and the development of personalized medicine that are tailored to your personal genetics. That, too, is a very cool future to buy.
Urban Air Mobility promises transportation that - among other possibilities - allows vehicles to travel above rather than through cities. It could effectively increase traffic through cities without any new construction, dependent on advances in advanced navigation and propulsion rather than billions of dollars in construction costs through and around existing buildings and infrastructure.
These and other possibilities are all uncertain investments and any specific investment you make might be in the wrong company even if it is the right idea. (In 1914, there were more than 250 automobile companies. Even if you KNEW that cars were going to be a big deal, you could easily lose on investments in the industry.)
When you buy bitcoin, you are not investing in any future. You're just hoping that someone comes along after you willing to pay more than you did. Given bitcoin has no intrinsic value and serves no purpose, the parade of people willing to pay more than the last guy is going to end soon.
And that's a great thing because there are so many exciting possibilities that need and deserve capital, futures waiting to be realized that actually make life better. The $3 trillion put into crypto could have been put into real technologies and companies that actually promise a better world. What you're trying to do with any investment is buy a future in which you're more financially secure and the world has better products or services at better prices because of the investment you made in a better future. Bitcoin is not that. So many other ventures, technologies and companies - by contrast - might be.