Groundhog Prediction

Today was Groundhog Day, not that the people of Pennsylvania noticed. Apparently, the forecast is for six more weeks of football coverage and celebratory conversations.

[I realize that this suggests a lack of sophistication, but Groundhog Day is my favorite movie. It has what are for me all the elements of a great movie: humor, an absurd plot, redemption of the hero, love, philosophy, and something sort of like time travel. Because of the movie, I actually notice the event.]

Bernard's Super Bowl Prediction

Surprisingly, Bernard had a prediction over breakfast today.

"Somebody wins, somebody loses," he said matter of factly.

"That's it? That's your prediction?"

"It's designed that way."

"That doesn't really qualify as a prediction, Bernard. That's more of a tautology."

"Okay, you want a name?"

"Yeah. That's how this works."

"Steelers in 4."

"The Steelers will win in 4 quarters? This isn't boxing, Bernard. Of course they'll win or lose in 4." I paused to sip my tea. "So, why do you think that they'll win?"

"It's like they say after the game: it's the fans."

I laughed. "So you are saying that the people of Pittsburgh are so much better as people or fans that their team will win?"

"I'm saying it's winter. People in Pittsburgh have more incentive to go to Tampa than people from Phoenix."

"Hard to argue with that."

"The poor Cardinals won't even be able to hear their fans, they'll be so outnumbered. Or hear themselves call plays, for that matter." He leaned forward, "It's all in the numbers, Ron."

Superbowl Cities Compared

The folks from America's heartland may find themselves feeling out of place in Miami this weekend. If you live in Indianapolis, you are almost 3X as likely to run into someone with a BA as you are to run into someone who is bilingual. When in Miami, though, those numbers more than reverse: you are 4X more likely to run into someone who is bilingual than you are someone with a BA. The difference lies less in rates of education (27% vs. 20%) than in the percentage who are bilingual (79% vs. 10%).

I think that the term is cultural shock. The talk of those who watched the game back home on TV will be about Peyton Manning's performance. The talk of those who went to the game will be about how they felt as though they were in another country.

And the fans from Chicago? I suspect that they'll come home talking about the weather.

[Graph from swivel.com, http://swivel.com/graphs/show/5409843 ]

Guaranteed Super Bowl Prediction and the Design of Your Business

I've got a prediction for the Super Bowl. And it's guaranteed. Sadly, for, you, my prediction doesn’t name Saints or Patriots or Bears or Colts.

(Note that two of the teams take their names from totemic figures - drawing their strength from bears and colts as if they were ancient Celts or American Indians; the other two teams, by contrast, take their name from ideals of politics and religion. A battle between Saints and Patriots would somehow seem appropriate for the times.)

My prediction is that ONE team will win. This seems like the most obvious prediction I could make, but it is worth noting because this is by design. 32 teams started the season, a season designed to eliminate teams bit by bit until only one team is left standing.

So why mention this? Well, it is worth mentioning because this is a design issue with a predetermined outcome. Your business might have a similar design goal. It's worth noting that only in undeveloped, poorly designed countries the leader makes the most money. In nearly all Fortune 500 companies, the leader, or CEO, makes the most money. This is by design and everyone in the company knows that one person will win the "get rich working for the company" contest. This suggests a poor design. In developed, well designed countries plenty of people make more money than the leader, the president or prime minister.

What if, instead, winning within a business were more like winning in business. That is, what if your company were not designed to have the leader take home the most money? What if the top income in your company were not determined by position but by natural consequences that meant that any number of employees might make more than the leader, just as in more developed, or better designed, countries any number of citizens make more than the leader?

We don't question the fact that only one team will win the Super Bowl each year. We should question the fact that only CEOs (only one employee) will win the "make the most money" award. This is a design flaw.