07 April 2026

Travel Notes from 2010 London - What I’ve noticed about England

Twice we walked down from street level to the underground at Covent Garden. As it turns out, it’s 193 steps – the equivalent of a 15-story building. We walked so many steps in a tight circle that it began to feel absurd.

London is Europe’s biggest city, with 6 million people. At any given instant, 11.4 million of them are on busses or subway cars. Brits are, as near as I can tell, chronically discontent, seemingly unhappy where they are and constantly on the move to somewhere else in the city.

The subway trains can be very crowded and along comes another in 3 to 8 minutes – buses run a little farther apart but depending on your destination you might be able to take any of a number of buses, so it would be typical to wait two minutes for your subway in the tube and then wait only 3 or 4 minutes for your bus. And remember – these are double-decker buses. with Brits and tourists stacked on top of each other. Of course if you have 193 steps between the subway and the bus, you might need to add an hour to your travel time even with walls of buses on the street.

I just assumed that Ricky Gervais’s success was at least in part due to his comedic looks. As it turns out, he doesn’t have comedic looks. He’s just British.

Just living in England would be the equivalent of 18 units of history. You can’t escape history any more than you can escape the rain.

The British Library was amazing. We got to see two Bibles from the 300s; the Magna Carta (in various versions); diary entries by Lewis Carroll about meeting Alice and then agreeing to write down the fairy tale (Alice Underground? Or Alice in Elfland?) for her after having told it to her; an untitled song lyric by the irreverent and disenchanted teen John Lennon; a handwritten speech by Freud; and a letter from Darwin apologizing to a religious friend for how upset he was made when reading the draft of his Origin of Species. I was so delighted by the special treasures room that contained all this that I wanted to experience the library more. It turns out, though, that a person needs a reading pass to get into the reading rooms. One can’t just saunter into the racks to see what they have. So, I went into the room where passes are (rather reluctantly as it turns out) granted. What follows is an only slightly exaggerated version of the conversation between me and the man who grants a pass to the reading rooms.

“What do you want to research?”

“I want to go to the social sciences room to read economic books,” I said, pleased that I could think this fast and actually come up with something that struck me as incredibly specific.

“Do you have the title of the work you want to read?”

“What?”

“You’ll have to write down the title you would like to see. And then we’ll think about giving you a reading pass.” With that, he hands me a form to fill out and points me over to their computer terminals linked to their catalog.

“What if I don’t know yet what titles I want to read?”

“You can’t ask for something to read unless you know what it is.”

“Well how would I know what it is if I haven’t yet read it?”

“Don’t be dense.”

Suffice it to say that I did not get into the reading rooms but I have to imagine that it was conversations with British bureaucrats like this that inspired so many of Lewis Carroll’s daft exchanges between Alice and the odd characters she encountered.

Any two items in the British Museum would be enough to make the reputation of a single museum in the States. It’s just an embarrassment of riches – from Rosetta Stone to wonderfully well preserved statutes from 3, 4, and 5 thousand years ago.

I loved Oxford. It’s is wonderfully British. John Locke went to school here, which basically means that if none of the other students learned a thing, whatever the British have invested in Oxford for the last few centuries has more than paid off.

Oxford University owns Oxford Street in London and leases to the many shops along its route (one of best shopping areas). This should mean that Oxford could afford to provide an Oxford-like education to every child north of London.

We stayed in the McDonald Randolph hotel in Oxford. Sandi counted 18 changes in height or direction on the way from reception to our room. It was comical. Imagine that Oxford student Charles Dodgson (as we insiders refer to the man who wrote as Lewis Carroll) had collaborated with the architect for the Winchester Mystery House and you get some idea of its layout.

I have to wonder if the Brits exploration and conquest of the world wasn’t just a search for better-tasting food. It’s not that their food is inadequate. It is, in fact, adequate. Just. But it’s hard to believe that it would hold one’s attention for more than five days, much less five centuries and might be one of the big reasons that they held onto India for so long.

Of course it might just have been the promise of warmer weather that was enough to drive the Brits into ships. It’s wet and cold here. Well, to be fair sometimes it is just cold.

The average Brit seems both shorter and more polite than the average American. Or perhaps they’re just polite to taller Americans.

Our guide around Oxford shared interesting tips like the origin of the term "eaves dropping" (listening to a conversation from an upper story that “dropped” down the eaves) and the fact that there is no difference in wines past the price of £10 because the only purpose of wine is to get a young woman into the arms of a young man or to remind an old man of when he once held a young woman. We subsidized an older man for an hour to opine away as if he were talking back to the TV.

Oxford could be where JK Rowling got the model for Hogwarts. Apparently the Japanese come by the millions to England to pay homage to the other Island Empire and come to Oxford to pay homage to Harry Potter, where scenes from the movie were filmed.

Down the block from our hotel was a thousand year old tower, the oldest building in Oxford. This makes it four times as old as our country, albeit considerably smaller.

It wasn’t just English culture we’ve been exposed to. We grabbed a drink at a little Scottish restaurant - McDonald’s.

We ate a pub where future prime ministers once ate. Or so I assume. The pub was on the river very close to Christ Church, the college at Oxford that’s graduated about a dozen Prime Ministers in the last couple of centuries.

06 April 2026

The Five Americas of New Politics for the Next Economy

 American political history looks messy up close. Zoom out and a pattern emerges.

From Jefferson to Lincoln, Democrats dominated — organizing the country around land, expanding the nation's territory threefold, building an economy of farmers and settlers. From Lincoln to FDR, Republicans dominated — organizing around capital, building railroads and factories, transforming raw materials into industrial wealth. From FDR to Reagan, Democrats dominated again — organizing around labor, creating full employment, then expanding who got to participate in the economy through education, civil rights, and inclusion.

In each era, one party identified the defining resource of its time, built institutions to unlock it, and governed for a generation.

 




Since Reagan, neither party has dominated. Power has split, and the focus has shifted from material problems - land, capital, labor - to cultural ones. Government has become less the architect of great national projects and more the arena for tribal conflict.

That pattern is not an accident. It is a consequence of how parties – and Americans – have thought about their economy and progress. A fifth America is possible.


05 April 2026

Truly Confusing Basketball Tattoo

Bald ref creates courtside confusion with head-sized basketball tattoo.

President Trump's Bizarre Easter Message 2026

Or as more boring, past presidents have often called out to fellow Americans on this day: "Happy Easter."





04 April 2026

How To Cut Your Odds of Dying in the Next Year in Half

"Your odds of dying in the next year are cut in half if you join one new group."
- Robert Putnam, author of Bowling Alone

Why Are We Going Back to the Moon?

Why are we going back to the moon?
What did they leave up there last time?

When Mental Illness Becomes Policy

If you read this and conclude either,
1. This man is a political genius, or
2. This man is godly,

You may not understand politics, religion, or mental illness.




03 April 2026

Open Presence

On your birthday, the world is opened to your presence.

The Consistently Erratic Pattern of Job Gains and Losses During Trump's Second Term

May of 2025 through March 2026 the pattern for job creation literally alternates between positive and negative every month.

The most consistently erratic president has a most consistently erratic pattern of job gains and losses.


01 April 2026

John Wick 21

 2053 — John Wick 21. It's just Keanu Reeves in a motorized wheelchair with a Gatling gun. He spins for 45 minutes, continuously firing, achieving his highest body count yet — with mumbled, vague assurances that at least some of them had it coming.

Perhaps.

Post Information Economy Emergent Potential

The emergent properties of 8 billion people collaborating, with millions of technologies potentially coming together in some kind of synthesis, are just so rich in potential.

We were single-celled organisms — and entirely new possibilities emerged when that reality evolved into multicellular life. We were little tribes — and entirely new possibilities emerged with the rise of nation-states. I still don't think we properly appreciate what new realities have yet to unfold from the emergence of the internet, which literally opens up the possibility of collaboration between anyone, anywhere, with anyone else.

Things like nationalism are pushbacks against this move toward global coordination — but that resistance is likely temporary.

The potential here defies any reasonable calculation. It's as if single-celled organisms were trying to predict what multicellular life would become.

Random Walk Theory Paradox

Abendroth: If we take the random walk theory seriously, we can't take it seriously.
Me: What?
Abendroth:. The idea behind the the random walk theory is that everything we know about a stock is reflected in today's price ... so the only thing that can change that price is new information which we don't yet know. Stocks will randomly move - or walk - up or down, by a lot or by a little, based only on that new information.
Me: So you're saying that even conspiracy theories are as effective as financial analysis?
Abendroth: No. I'm saying that in finance, they are all conspiracy theories. Even the random walk theory.
After a long pause.
Me: So you're saying that the random walk theory could be true if it is false but must be false if it is true?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: Because the random walk theory suggests that any theories about the stock market - including the random walk theory - are nonsensical?
Abendroth: Yes.
Me: That sort of makes sense.
Abendroth: But mostly doesn't.
Me: Did Lewis Carrol manage an investment fund?
Abendroth: Why do you think the Rabbit was so smartly dressed? He was the fund manager.



31 March 2026

Americans Do Not Like Trump

The five states that have a net positive approval of Trump have a population of 12.5 million. (Wyoming, Idaho, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Tennessee.)

The two states where his net approval is zero (Oklahoma and Montana) have a population of 5.2 million.

The states in which Trump's net approval rating is negative - reaching as high as negative 44% - have a population of about 324 million, representing nearly 95% of the population of these United States.

Approval levels per The Economist

Americans do not like Trump.



The Deep Roots of Wealth Distribution

There's a play area at SeaWorld — bouncy surface, maybe 50 oversized stuffed shapes scattered around. The kids can't quite figure out what they're for, so rather than build rooms or towers, they just hoard. Forty kids, 50 objects — and four of them have claimed 45.

If you had no economic data but had merely observed this dynamic, you might just be able to predict wealth distribution in these United States.

29 March 2026

Favorite William James' Quotes

Williams James (1842 - 1910) is one of my favorite Americans. Here are some quotes from him that might give you some idea of why.

“My first act of free will shall be to believe in free will.”

“Truth happens to an idea. It becomes true, is made true by events.”

"The faculty of voluntarily bringing back a wandering attention, over and over again, is the very root of judgment, character, and will."

“The world is a pluralism, not a universe.”

"All our life, so far as it has definite form, is but a mass of habits — practical, emotional, and intellectual — systematically organized for our weal or woe, and bearing us irresistibly toward our destiny."

“If this life be not a real fight, in which something is eternally gained for the universe by success, it is no better than a game of private theatricals.”

“The moral test of a civilization is how it treats its weakest members.”

“Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.”

“Believe that life is worth living, and your belief will help create the fact.”

"The greatest revolution of our generation is the discovery that human beings, by changing the inner attitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives."

"The greatest use of a life is to spend it on something that will outlast it."

27 March 2026

Economic Market Data for No Kings Protest March 2026

The two most defining markets for how Americans judge any administration are the stock market and labor markets. Not only is Trump engaged in self-enrichment at a scale never before witnessed by any American president but the performance of these two markets is miserable under his presidency.


This first graph shows the average monthly job creation rate for each president since Jimmy Carter. In this you can see that only Trump's previous term and George W. Bush's administration presided over worse job markets.


Stock market performance is - prior to market opening Monday morning 30 March 2026 - the worst of any president since George W. Bush's administration.





Trump's understanding of how the economy works is not just deeply flawed - it is demonstrably flawed. 

26 March 2026

Action Figure

As a little boy, he'd dreamed of becoming a superhero but Bobble head Bob's unfortunate condition became the inspiration for a very different kind of action figure.

Baseball is back.




Stock Market Movement

Every stock sale involves one person convinced this is a good time to sell and another convinced this is a good time to buy. Market equilibrium depends not just on differing opinions but perfectly opposing ones.

The NASDAQ is down 6.66% YTD.

Investors agree on the number. They just have very different ideas about what happens next.

The Yin, the Yang, and the Dow.




Dow. Such a precarious index. Just one key stroke away from down.