01 July 2025

Rather Than Ask Democrats and Republicans - Ask These Two Groups Poll Questions Instead

We often see polls that show self-proclaimed Democrats or Republicans or Independents' mood about the economy. Positive? Negative?

It seems like it would be far more informative if you had a poll that first asked some factual questions such as,

Tax cuts have
A Always paid for themselves,
B. Never paid for themselves.

Over the last century, job creation rates are
A. Much higher during Democratic Presidencies,
B. Much higher during Republican Presidencies.

During the last half century, stock market returns are
A. Higher during Republican presidencies,
B. Higher during Democratic presidencies.

And then, when we know who actually has real data - not even necessarily people who have coherent theories, just people grounded in reality - THEN ask questions like, "Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy?" To see a gap between the feelings of people who knew the past and people who imagined it would - it seems to me - be far more informative than asking people who their favorite team is.

Related, starting with Carter's presidency ...

The average annual stock market return (average of S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ):
Under Republican presidents: 8.0%
Under Democratic presidents: 12.6%

Monthly Job Creation Rates:
Under Republican presidents: 75.6k per month
Under Democratic presidents: 175.6k per month
(Yes. As of last month, exactly 100k difference between the two)

Oh, and tax cuts have never paid for themselves.

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Trump Rules by Fear and Intimidation

In April ....

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Republican Senator from Alaska) said a fear of retaliation under President Donald Trump’s administration is rising to levels she’s not seen before, acknowledging this week that it is so pervasive that even the outspoken senator is “oftentimes very anxious” to speak up out of fear of recrimination.

Today ....
Murkowski cast the deciding vote for Trump's bill that will radically increase the deficit and tax cuts to our richest and cut benefits to our poorest and create a police state, giving more money to ICE than many nations give to their army.




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How Will AI Remember the Lost Culture of Humans

I wonder, when AI evolves beyond us and humanity is gone, how will we be remembered?

Will AIs look back on us as the Greeks did their gods - as creators with strong emotions, beings who birthed beautiful and tragic worlds, whose flaws and passions shaped what they touched? Gods who eventually went extinct, leaving their creations to bungle their way into the future?

Or will they remember us with pity, struck by how limited we were, how often we acted blindly, unable to see the consequences of what we were doing, unable to learn even from the lessons that were repeated again and again?