Donald Trump’s best strategy for his second term might be to do... nothing. If he adopts an “inactive executive” approach—focusing on rallies rather than policy—he could leave office boasting of presiding over one of the strongest economies in recent history.
Here’s why: Trump is inheriting what may be the most remarkable economy of our lifetimes, certainly since the late 1990s. The forces driving this prosperity have built-in momentum that could generate stellar results—if Trump doesn’t derail them with his campaign promises.
The private sector is creating new businesses at double the rate it was in 2000, even in the face of high borrowing costs. As interest rates fall, we can reasonably expect that rate of new business formation to accelerate further. Private sector R&D spending is also at an all-time high, growing nearly twice as fast under Biden as it did during Trump’s first term. These investments are the seeds of future growth, sparking breakthroughs that will compound over time.
The public sector, too, is contributing. Biden’s extensive infrastructure plan is stimulating the economy and creating jobs on a scale never before seen. With over 60,000 projects underway, the effects of these investments will ripple through the economy for years, much like Eisenhower’s interstate highways did in the 1950s.
This combination of research, entrepreneurship, and public investment creates a virtuous cycle. Wealth, knowledge, and innovation all compound over time. Consider how mapping the human genome has enabled thousands of new projects, each one paving the way for tens of thousands more breakthroughs. Or how Amazon’s success didn’t just enrich Jeff Bezos—it empowered millions of small businesses to grow. Growth begets growth.
If Trump simply stays the course, GDP growth and job creation are poised to shine. A strong stock market and falling interest rates could provide further fuel, making the economy virtually self-sustaining.
But Trump’s campaign promises—tariffs and mass deportations—could wreck this golden opportunity.
A 10% tariff would add hundreds of billions in consumer costs, cut GDP growth in half, and stoke inflation. Mass deportations would be even worse: removing 16 million workers and consumers could shrink GDP by 4-7%, a blow greater than the Great Recession. Beyond the economic devastation, these policies would uproot families and communities, triggering public outrage—and for a president who thrives on adulation, that could mean a steep decline in popularity.
Ironically, the most effective path for Trump might be inaction. By allowing private investments and the long-term benefits of Biden’s infrastructure projects to work their magic, Trump could ride the wave of economic growth without lifting a finger. For a man whose greatest strength is holding rallies and energizing his base, doing less might actually achieve more.
In short, Trump’s best chance at a successful and popular presidency is to resist the urge to meddle. The economy’s trajectory is already set to thrive—if left undisturbed. He might do best if, instead of implementing policy, he just travels the country holding rallies. And given he’ll soon once again be our president, we, too, will benefit from him doing his best – even if it comes from him doing very little.
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